Proportional reversed hazard rate model and its applications

The purpose of this paper is to study the structure and properties of the proportional reversed hazard rate model (PRHRM) in contrast to the celebrated proportional hazard model (PHM). The monotonicity of the hazard rate and the reversed hazard rate of the model is investigated. Some criteria of aging are presented and the inheritance of the aging notions (of the base distribution) by the PRHRM is studied. Characterizations of the model involving Fisher information are presented and the statistical inference of the parameters is discussed. Finally, it is shown that several members of the proportional reversed hazard rate class have been found to be useful and flexible in real data analysis.     

贵州健康老龄化的非经济制约因素

贵州省人口老龄化具有农村人口老龄化程度高于城镇、性别比偏低、文化水平较低,且民族、地区差异明显的特点。目前制约健康老龄化的非经济因素主要有法制环境问题,政府、社区组织老年工作问题,以及养老文化面临冲击的问题。针对存在问题提出三条相应对策。     

苏州市人口老龄化分析

基于对苏州市第四次人口普查人口年龄结构的分析,本文认为苏州市已进入人口老年型早期。文中论述了该市人口老龄化的现状、过程及趋势,剖析了过去与未来主导这一进程的不同的人口学因素,特别强调了控制人口增长对这一进程的作用。文中预测现在和今后的二十年内人口老龄化发展较缓,总抚养比较低,正届人口构成上的“黄金时期”,面临着实现经济跃升的契机。其后,人口老龄化将以空前的速度进行。抓住当前的契机也是今后从根本意义上解决好老龄人口问题所必需的。     

Long-term care in Spain: Difficulties in professionalizing services

The aim of this article is to analyze the difficulties in professionalizing the long-term care system in Spain. Since 2006, the new Spanish law has recognized care as a subjective right, and regulations are being designed to create a framework for its professionalization. Nowadays, family remains the most important group of providers who care for their elders, and women remain the main informal caregivers. Why do families resist using public long-term care services and professional carers included in the new law? The hypothesis highlights sociocultural factors as an obstacle to professionalization of long-term care services in addition to political and economic factors. The results show qualitative data about expectations, preferences, and discourses that women caregivers have in relation to their responsibility. The empirical material includes 25 interviews with different profiles of caregivers and six focus groups with family caregivers. The article suggests that the Spanish ideal of care is a problem for the professionalization of services because the family remains as the main provider of care—without specific skills, knowledge, and abilities.     

Same-sex cohabiting elders versus different-sex cohabiting and married elders: Effects of relationship status and sex of partner on economic and health outcomes

In this article, I use pooled data from the 2008–2010 American Community Surveys to examine outcomes for different-sex married, different-sex cohabiting, and same-sex cohabiting elders across several key economic and health indicators, as well as other demographic characteristics. The findings suggest that elders in same-sex cohabiting partnerships differ from those in different-sex marriages and different-sex cohabiting relationships in terms of both financial and health outcomes, and that women in same-sex cohabiting partnerships fare worse than men or women in other couple types. The results indicate that financial implications related to the sex of one’s partner might be more predictive of economic and health outcomes in old age, rather than solely access to legal marriage. Nonetheless, findings suggest that individuals in same-sex cohabiting partnerships might experience worse outcomes in old age as a result of cumulative effects across the life course from both the sex of their partner (in the case of female couples) as well as their lack of access to benefits associated with marriage. Accordingly, these findings demonstrate that persons in same-sex cohabiting partnerships require unique policy considerations to address health and economic concerns in old age.     

Computer Assisted Life Review

Abstract

A positive life review process is crucial to the resolution of the last of Ericson's developmental life crises, ego-integrity vs. despair. This paper describes and discusses: (1) the importance of the life review process and life review therapy; (2) the nature of idea processors, a type of computer software; and (3) ways that idea processors can be useful in facilitating a therapeutic life review process for elderly individuals.     

农村老年人老化态度变动轨迹:基于积极老龄化框架的实证考察

基于积极老龄化理论框架和“中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查”面板数据,文章从积极和消极两个维度对农村老年人老化态度问题进行实证考察。研究发现,两种老化态度均以2008年为重要转折点,女性老化态度比男性更具多样性和多变性。健康、社会参与和保障都能引起老化态度的积极变动,但社会适应、子女经济支持和社区照料三个因素对消极老化态度有正向影响,而生产活动降低了积极老化态度水平。从贡献率看,健康因素对老化态度差异贡献最大,其次是保障因素、社会参与因素,健康因素更能解释积极老化态度的变化,社会参与因素对消极老化态度的贡献率更高,二者分别在女性和男性老年人群体中表现得更为明显。贡献率排在前四位的因素是精神健康、子女经济支持、医疗可及性和身体健康。用积极老龄化的观点帮助庞大的农村老年人口建立正确的老化态度将有益于养老问题的解决。     

深度老龄化对我国劳动就业的潜在影响

对我国就业人口现状,2000-2010年城市、城镇、乡村人口就业速度,我国三大产业就业人口变化及人口年龄组劳动参与率变化的研究表明:若退休年龄不变,2030年我国潜在劳动力将比2010年减少14%;若男女退休年龄分别推迟5年,则2030年潜在劳动力仍将与2010年相当。然而,青年劳动力的比例下降快,农村尤其明显;2020年以后我国劳动力递减速度快,2040年我国60岁以上、65岁以上和80岁以上老年人口比例将超过28%、22%和4%。近20年我国经济发展很快,但面临老龄化的严重挑战,老龄化通过劳动力老化、社会保障、生产成本、商品出口、社会消费、货币汇率等途径,对经济持久地产生影响。     

六盘水市老龄化问题社会调查理性分析

老龄化社会是当今中国面对的一个严峻社会问题,城市除了要满足老人们的日常生活需要,更要满足老人们参与政治、实现个人价值、个人尊严、获得家庭归属感和临终关怀等多层次的精神需求。城市应该在社会经济发展、基础设施和公共服务设施建设中充分关爱老人,优先发展养老服务设施和机构,营造多种经济成分参与的全社会办养老的良好氛围。在城市转型发展建设大数据、大健康和大旅游产业同时,适时建设好大养老产业,满足城市社会老龄化需求。本课题正是六盘水市“十三五”开局之年,在六盘水市开展的一项基础研究,通过大范围社会调查,了解和掌握城市养老所面临的问题,梳理出未来城市养老产业的发展模式,为城市建设完善的现代养老体提供建议和参考。     

从“人口红利”消逝的预警谈我国的人口政策

在人口转变过程中存在着对经济发展极为有利的“人口红利”时期。本文从分析我国“人口红利”消逝的预警入手,分析了我国人口结构面临迅速人口老龄化的现状,并追溯了计划生育这一影响我国人口结构的政策原因,认为对传统以严格控制人口数量为目的的人口政策的调整应提上日程。