Constituents’ economic interests and senator support for spending limitations

Peltzman [Peltzman, S., 1984. Constituent interest and congressional voting. Journal of Law and Economics 27, 181–210] argues that if constituents’ economic interests have well-defined “winners and losers” and are appropriately measured, then constituents’ economic interests, and not legislator ideology, are the most important determinates of legislator voting. We test Peltzman's theory by examining senatorial voting on three mandated spending limitation bills. We find, consistent with Peltzman's theory, that the ratio of federal spending in a senator's state to federal taxes paid by that state, and not a senator's personal ideology, matters on legislation where there are well-defined economic “winners and losers.” This is particularly important because unlike other constituents’ economic interest measures that only impact a fraction of the constituency, the ratio of federal spending to federal taxes in a state represents the economic interests of all the constituents in a state.     

第十届中国戏剧节新创剧目简论

第十届中国戏剧节上展演的新创剧目在题材上有向政治剧和底层生活剧集中的趋势。政治剧都以历史剧的形式出现，多表现凶险的政治强力和善良人性及人类基本正面价值之间的悲剧性冲突；底层生活剧则都在当前的时空中表现社会、经济、精神资源严重匮乏的下层人民的生活实况。剧作家对这两大题材的开掘和表现在思想上超越了以往的深度，在艺术上具有更强烈的情感冲击力。它们标志了新世纪以来戏剧创作基本的取材方向和艺术水平。     

思想政治理论课教学中的“罗森塔尔效应“

通过对教育活动中“罗森塔尔效应”的认识,提出在思想政治理论课教学实践过程中运用“罗森塔尔效应”的要点,再分析“罗森塔尔效应”在思想政治理论课教学中成功实施的条件。     

国家治理中的第三次分配:美国镜鉴与中国道路

第三次分配在中国推动共同富裕迈入新阶段的当下扮演着重要角色。基于国家社会关系视角,将第三次分配划分为强政府大社会、弱政府大社会、强政府小社会、弱政府小社会4种实践模式。美国第三次分配建构起了弱政府大社会实践模式,以社会主导、政府监管、政治中立为主要特征。工具理性是美国第三次分配的成功经验,形成了文化、组织、制度及技术“四位一体”的逻辑理路。隐藏在工具理性外衣下的阶级理性是美国第三次分配的失败教训,在阶级理性思维影响下,社会“私”的方面被放大,形成了以捐赠者为中心的家长制作风。中国第三次分配是先富带动后富、助推共同富裕的实现方式,它深嵌到中国式现代化进程中。中国第三次分配不能照搬美国模式,需要在充分吸收工具理性和摒弃阶级理性的经验教训基础上,塑造强政府大社会模式,将中国文化要素融入制度体系,增强第三次分配主体规范性,加大第三次分配激励力度,完善第三次分配监管体系,持续并高度关注贫困人群。     

中国ESI学科建设研究的现状、问题及对策——基于2003—2017年核心期刊文献的计量分析

文章系统梳理了国内外ESI学科领域研究现状,通过对2003年1月至2017年6月CNKI核心期刊发表的“ESI学科”主题论文的计量分析,发现该领域研究存在若干问题:论文成果数量逐年增长但仍不多,论文来源期刊和机构分布不尽合理,作者专业结构有待优化、核心作者群体尚未形成,学科排名和一流学科建设是研究的热点,研究主题多为应用对策类,基础研究类成果极为缺乏.针对上述问题,笔者提出了具体的对策建议.     

阶层固化背景下底层青年的“中国梦”

时至今日,社会各个阶层的固化趋势渐趋严重,很大程度上成为中华民族复兴历程上最大的拦路虎,这不能不引起我们的关注和重视。而广大的新世纪底层青年正是在这一背景下踏上历史舞台,展开各自的人生传奇。当代底层青年面对着日益严峻的阶层固化态势,他们的崛起之路变得愈加坎坷和艰难。他们要破茧而出,打破阶层藩篱,实现逆袭,获得职业成功,必须把握该阶层的特点、构成,并依赖政府、社会各方面的参与和努力,更重要的是,个人的奋斗和坚持是不可或缺的。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.     

Patience moderates the class cleavage in demand for redistribution

Previous studies on class voting have yielded mixed results linking income and demand for redistribution. Why do some poor people oppose redistribution, while some rich people support it? This article argues that an individual's level of patience, an important personal characteristic that influences how people calculate immediate and distinct outcomes, may moderate the effect of class on redistributive preference. In a one-shot game, redistribution between the rich and the poor is zero sum. When people extend their time horizons, however, the poor see the possibility of upward mobility, while the rich emphasize future losses, such as unemployment and economic instability. Consistent with the hypotheses, analyses of the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and a representative Taiwanese dataset from 2016 reveal a clear class cleavage in demand for redistribution among impatient poor and rich respondents, but the cleavage between their patient counterparts diminished. This pattern of convergence extends previous studies on upward mobility and risk perception theory.     

The boomerang effect of psychological interventions

Research has found that teaching people about psychological biases can help counteract biased behavior. On the other hand, due to the innate need for preservation of a positive self-image, it is likely that teaching people about biases they hold, may cause a boomerang effect in cases where being associated with a specific bias implies negative social connotations. In the three studies below we examine situations in which psychological bias implies negatively associated behavior, and show that teaching people about bias in those contexts can be counterproductive.