Central tendency bias in belief elicitation

We conduct an experiment in which subjects participate in a first-price auction against an automaton that bids randomly in a given range. The subjects first place a bid in the auction. They are then given an incentivized elicitation of their beliefs of the opponent’s bid. Despite having been told that the bid of the opponent is drawn from a uniform distribution, we find that a majority of subjects report beliefs that have a peak in the interior of the range. This result is robust across seven different experimental treatments. While not expected at the outset, these single-peaked beliefs have precedence in the experimental psychology judgments literature. Our results suggest that an elicitation of probability beliefs can result in responses that are more concentrated than the objectively known or induced truth. We provide indicative evidence that such individual belief reports can be rationalized by well-defined subjective beliefs that differ from the objective truth. Our findings offer an explanation for the conservatism and overprecision biases in Bayesian updating. Finally, our findings suggest that probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events might have less variance than the actual events.     

论2008年美国总统选举与当今美国政治和社会文化生态

以2008年美国总统大选为切入点,从反恐与伊拉克战争、经济与贸易、非法移民问题以及教育、司法、传媒等角度,着眼此次美国总统选举的选情,分析其背后错综复杂的政治经济利益、文化冲撞与交锋,前瞻美国社会的变迁。笔者认为,近年来美国政治和社会经历了少有的变革,政治经济上的失策及大众的不安造成了美国社会的巨大分化与不稳定。由此带来的美国内外政策和全球战略的重大调整与转变必将在此次美国总统选举的结果中得到体现和印证。它们将在很大程度上决定今后十年美国内政外交的走势,对美国自身的力量涨落、政策取向和国际格局带来重大和深远的影响。     

代焦虑与创伤记忆--读君特·格拉斯的《狗年月》

《狗年月》是格拉斯的但泽三部曲之一部,这部作品与其他两部相比,作者的视野更加开阔.本文集中于分析小说中的"代现象",并以此为基点讨论德意志保守主义传统与纳粹统治的关系,揭示在高度分化的现代社会,不同群体之间的隔膜与争执,进而讨论如何承担历史责任的主题.     

中国“反现代性”思潮:世界意义的保守主义?

世纪之末中国文化思想的发展 ,提醒我们必须重视一个世纪以来的文化保守主义思潮。这一思潮具有明显的西方背景 ,因而体现了前所未有的“世界意义” ,不过 ,在中外的保守主义之间 ,仍然存在着一系列巨大的差异 ,而中国的保守主义也未能在我们的现代文化建设中发挥更大的作用。     

浅议英国政治文化的形成发展与本质特点——保守主义与激进主义的融合

独特的英国发展模式孕育出特有的政治文化。通过对英国政治文化的形成与发展过程进行深入分析,可以发现其特点是二元主义的和谐变奏,本质是一种保守主义与激进主义、科学理性与宗教哲学、贵族精神与公民精神相矛盾、相融合的产物。因此,英国政治文化与我们熟悉的斗争哲学、极端作风形成强烈反差,给我们一些有益的启示。     

Conspicuous conservatism in risk choice

We analyze the risk levels chosen by agents who have private information regarding their quality, and whose performance will be judged and rewarded by outsiders. Assume that risk choice is observable. Agents will choose risk strategically to enhance their expected reputations. We show that conspicuous conservatism results: agents of different qualities choose levels below those that would be chosen if quality were observable. This happens because bad agents must cloak their identity by choosing the same risk level as good agents, and good agents are more likely to distinguish themselves if they reduce the risk level. Our results contrast starkly with those for the case when risk choice cannot be observed.

Measures of Compounding Conservatism in Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Concern about the degree of uncertainty and potential conservatism in deterministic point estimates of risk has prompted researchers to turn increasingly to probabilistic methods for risk assessment. With Monte Carlo simulation techniques, distributions of risk reflecting uncertainty and/or variability are generated as an alternative. In this paper the compounding of conservatism⁽¹⁾ between the level associated with point estimate inputs selected from probability distributions and the level associated with the deterministic value of risk calculated using these inputs is explored. Two measures of compounded conservatism are compared and contrasted. The first measure considered, F , is defined as the ratio of the risk value, R _d, calculated deterministically as a function of n inputs each at the j th percentile of its probability distribution, and the risk value, R _j that falls at the j th percentile of the simulated risk distribution (i.e., F=R_d/R_j). The percentile of the simulated risk distribution which corresponds to the deterministic value, R_d , serves as a second measure of compounded conservatism. Analytical results for simple products of lognormal distributions are presented. In addition, a numerical treatment of several complex cases is presented using five simulation analyses from the literature to illustrate. Overall, there are cases in which conservatism compounds dramatically for deterministic point estimates of risk constructed from upper percentiles of input parameters, as well as those for which the effect is less notable. The analytical and numerical techniques discussed are intended to help analysts explore the factors that influence the magnitude of compounding conservatism in specific cases.     

浅析20世纪自由主义和保守主义的关系

在 2 0世纪 ,长期对立的自由主义和保守主义的关系发生了很大的变化。二者在保持各自特质的同时 ,发生了位移 ,即各自吸收对方的基本主张作为自己的基本主张。形式上二者的界限日益模糊 ,政治思想史上的这种奇特现象的出现有其客观原因 ,但是这并不意味着自由主义与保守主义的趋同。因为西方价值体系中固有的深刻矛盾决定了二者存在无法消除的根本分歧     

Morality and politics: Comparing alternate theories

Debates about the American “culture wars” have led scholars to develop several theories relating morality to political attitudes and behaviors. However, researchers have not adequately compared these theories, nor have they examined the overall contribution of morality to explaining political variation. This study uses nationally representative data to compare the utility of 19 moral constructs from four research traditions – associated with the work of Hunter, Lakoff, Haidt, and Schwartz – for predicting political orientation (liberalism/conservatism). Results indicate that morality explains a third of the variation in political orientation – more than basic demographic and religious predictors – but that no one theory provides a fully adequate explanation of this phenomenon. Instead, political orientation is best predicted by selected moral constructs that are unique to each of the four traditions, and by two moral constructs that crosscut them. Future work should investigate how these moral constructs can be synthesized to create a more comprehensive theory of morality and politics.     

美国中期选举及“茶党”兴起的影响

美国中期选举使民主党和奥巴马总统本人受到很大打击。民主党失掉众议院多数席位,奥巴马未来两年执政道路充满荆棘,竞选连任困难重重。共和党通过中期选举掌控了众议院,标志着他们说便宜话的时代结束了,未来的道路也并不好走。茶党的兴起,对美国政坛和社会的影响正在显现。美国保守主义思潮回归,金融经济危机冲击下的各种社会问题交织,其国内外政策走向正在深刻演变之中。