Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA

Summary.  We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances.     

欧债危机的传导、扩散与防治

目前,欧债危机愈演愈烈,并呈现由经济领域向政治、社会领域传导,由欧元区国家向其他国家扩散的态势。在欧洲,主权债务危机向银行业、非金融私营部门的传导十分明显,使欧洲核心国家银行业风险敞口不断扩大,实体经济萎靡不振;同时,主权债务危机引发多国政局动荡,民众不满情绪也持续升温。欧债危机对全球的影响也不断显现,直接冲击欧洲主要贸易伙伴的出口量,并出现国际金融市场动荡、股市暴跌等一系列连锁反应。面对欧债危机及其蔓延趋势,需要各国联合行动,采取切实可行的应对措施,其中"一揽子"方案、"隔离层"和"防火墙"具有重要作用。     

中国地方政府债务问题探讨

中国地方政府债务问题形成的主要原因,一是政府过多地、直接地参与经济活动,二是城市化加速导致地方政府举债。对于中国地方政府债务问题,总体判断仍为风险可控。一是地方政府加上中央政府的债务占GDP的比例在40%以内,远低于60%的债务率标准。二是中央政府有非常强的控制能力,在各级政府间平衡债权债务,使得中国加总的净债务率较低。三是中国整体的资产负债表仍然健康,尤其是中央政府保持相当健康的资产负债表。对地方政府债务问题,体制性的解决办法是治本之道。要从根本上解决中国地方政府不规范借债问题,须建立规范化的地方政府举债融资机制。     

欧洲主权债务危机与欧洲中央银行制度上的缺陷

中央银行最后贷款人职能是现代中央银行的一个重要职能,尤其在经济下降并发生市场恐慌时期,中央银行发挥这一职能是维持金融体系安全稳定的重要保障。由于欧洲中央银行缺乏这一职能,欧元区主权债务危机很难在短期内被彻底平息。欧盟只有进行改革,赋予欧洲中央银行这一职能,才能让其在解救欧元区高负债国家的债务危机中发挥更大的作用。同时,现代中央银行履行最后贷款人职能时,还必须遵循应有的原则以及处理好与中央银行货币政策目标的关系。     

迪拜债务危机:基于主权财富基金与流动性的解析

通过构建风险投资行为与流动性危机模型，对投资机构的风险投资行为及其与流动性危机的关系进行了解析。同时结合“类主权财富基金”的特殊性质，对迪拜债务危机进行了现实透视，可以发现：投资机构的风险投资行为将导致社会风险资产总体规模高于社会有效水平；债务危机是投资机构非理性扩张的必然结果；迪拜“类主权财富基金”的特殊性质是引发其债务危机的重要原因。     

破产目的与免责制度的建立

我国1986年《中华人民共和国企业破产法(试行)》(以下简称《破产法》)已经不能适应现今市场经济发展的需要,新的破产法的制定会涉及到很多新问题。随着新破产法草案适用主体范围的扩大,自然人的免责制度是不可缺少的规范内容。为什么建立破产免责制度?借鉴国外破产立法经验,我国在建立免责制度时应注意的问题将是本文的重点。     

“Should I Trust the Bank or the Social Movement?” Motivated Reasoning and Debtors' Work to Accept Misinformation

How can people believe corporate and state misinformation even if a social movement organization in their community has been countering this misinformation for years? Why do people knowingly accept misinformation without even being upset about it? I address these questions by analyzing ethnographic data and interviews with 84 Chilean low‐income housing debtors, whom, like many Chileans, are victims of financial misinformation. While the state and banks had significant agency in inducing the unproblematic acceptance of misinformation, debtors also played an active role in the processes. First, debtors had to decide whom to trust, which was not only a cognitive problem about evidence but also a behavioral and practical problem involving risks. Second, debtors engaged in “motivated reasoning”—affect‐driven biased information processing—to dismiss the possibility of being misinformed, to downplay the significance of misinformation, and to direct blame away from misinforming institutions. The latter two practices reduced debtors' anger about being misinformed. The findings have implications for studies of social movement framing and counterinformation, for the cognitive psychology of misinformation, and for the sociology and social psychology of acquiescence.     

Attitudes to debt among indebted undergraduates: A cross-national exploratory factor analysis

This paper reports the results of a cross-national study spanning England, New Zealand and the United States. A total of 496 first year undergraduates studying business or social science completed a 20-item questionnaire. This focused on their attitudes to their debt incurred while studying, as measured on a five-point Likert scale. A factor analysis model was developed, from which four consistent factors emerged, explaining 45 percent of the variation and consistent between countries. These factors were named: Anxiety, Utility-For-Lifestyle, Utility-For-Investment and Awareness. The first three factors were found to be uncorrelated with each other, but higher Awareness was associated with lower levels of Anxiety and Utility-For-Lifestyle and higher levels of Utility-For-Investment. The relationship with previous studies and implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

The effect of late-life debt use on retirement decisions

This paper examines parallel shifts in late life debt use and retirement behaviors. After discussing the conceptual linkages between credit and labor markets, I use data from the 1992 to 2008 waves of the Health and Retirement Study to examine the temporal patterning of retirement and debt behaviors. I rely on the longitudinal structure of the data to estimate the effects of debt accumulation on retirement behaviors, using alternative specifications to identify treatment and control groups. The findings suggest that debt accumulation in later life has a significant effect on decisions to remain in the workforce in later years.     

基于VEC模型的国债发行额影响因素分析

本文基于VEC模型,并运用协积检验、格兰杰检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,对我国国债发行额的影响因素进行实证分析。结果显示,我国国债发行额与国内生产总值（GDP）、财政赤字、国债还本付息、国债余额、居民储蓄和贷款余额存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,影响国债发行额的主要因素有国债发行额本身、国内生产总值（GDP）、财政赤字、居民储蓄和国债还本付息。