An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

ER模型的逻辑表示途径

利用Answer set编程表示ER模型,从而为ER模型提供了一种新颖的逻辑表示途径。首先,完成ER模式的语法与语义定义;其次,利用Answer set编程实现ER模式的逻辑编程表示,并且这里的编程可自动实现;最后,完成以上表示的合理性证明。工作不仅克服了ER模型作为图形化工具的缺陷,使得它具有了自动推理能力,而且也为利用ER模型实现异构数据库之间的语义协作奠定了理论基础。     

当前管理科学研究中的若干问题——几个疑点的澄清和两种研究方法的评析

澄清了几个疑点,简述了现代管理科学中国学派研究中对于基本概念所作的一些正本清源的探讨,提出从中国模式上升到中国学派的路线图。评述了实证研究的两种方法:案例研究很重要,问卷调查式的实证研究存在一些弊端亟待克服。     

电磁流变智能半主动控制系统的发展与应用

针对电磁流变智能半主动控制系统具有性能稳定、反应迅速、能耗小、控制效果良好等特点,及其在结构控制方面的应用前景,介绍电磁流变智能半主动控制系统及其有关的电磁流变液、控制器及技制算法、驱动器、传感器、电磁流变阻尼器等部分的功能、应用和发展状况,指出其在结构振动控制中进一步应用所亟待解决的问题．