治理通货膨胀的宏观调控手段

本文试图在分析我国通货膨胀成因的基础上，进一步分析各项与此有关的宏观调控手段，建立反映通货膨胀与这些调控手段之间关系的计量经济模型，并利用该模型分析各项调控手段的变化及对通货膨胀的定量作用．     

Imposing and Testing for Shape Restrictions in Flexible Parametric Models

In many economic models, theory restricts the shape of functions, such as monotonicity or curvature conditions. This article reviews and presents a framework for constrained estimation and inference to test for shape conditions in parametric models. We show that “regional” shape-restricting estimators have important advantages in terms of model fit and flexibility (as opposed to standard “local” or “global” shape-restricting estimators). In our empirical illustration, this is the first article to impose and test for all shape restrictions required by economic theory simultaneously in the “Berndt and Wood” data. We find that this dataset is consistent with “duality theory,” whereas previous studies have found violations of economic theory. We discuss policy consequences for key parameters, such as whether energy and capital are complements or substitutes.     

家庭人口结构变动对居民消费的影响研究——基于微观家庭面板数据的分析

居民消费与家庭人口结构密切相关,本文基于2018年和2019年国家统计局住户调查数据,构建基于微观家庭的平衡面板数据随机效应和固定效应模型,结合我国人口未来变动趋势,从家庭人口年龄结构、城镇化属性、受教育水平三个维度着手,就家庭人口结构变动对家庭平均消费率和消费收入弹性的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,城镇化率提高、城镇化发展质量提升以及居民受教育水平提高有助于提高家庭平均消费率和消费收入弹性,人口老龄化对家庭平均消费率具有负面效应,更为积极的生育政策能够促进居民消费。本文建议持续推进以人为核心的新型城镇化,坚持教育优先发展,持续优化生育政策,积极应对人口老龄化,挖掘老年人口消费潜力,推动建设高水平国内消费市场。     

The elasticity of labor demand and the minimum wage

We show that, contrary to widespread belief, low-pay workers do not generally prefer that the minimum wage rate be increased until the labor demand is unitary elastic. Rather, there exists a critical value of elasticity of labor demand so that increases in the minimum wage rate make low-pay workers better off for higher elasticities, but worse off for lower elasticities. This critical value decreases with unemployment benefits and increases with workers’ risk aversion. We also show that in some countries the benefits for long-term unemployed are so low that workers would probably prefer that the minimum wage rate be decreased. I thank the anonymous referees for helpful suggestions.     

西部农村消费需求的边际倾向与收入弹性比较分析

收入是拉动消费需求增加的非常重要的动力,但在我国,由于地域差异大,经济一直落后的西部农村地区,收入虽然也有所增加,但由于经济基础薄弱而使收入的增加对消费增加的作用不明显,消费的边际倾向和收入弹性相对东部地区的省份高,所以进一步增加西部农民的收入就很容易启动潜在消费,从而刺激全国的有效需求,使我国经济尽快走出低迷的状态。     

变量误差模型下的代际收入弹性估计：一个文献综述

 代际收入流动性反映了社会的机会平等与经济公正程度，为收入分配研究提供了动态视角，主要由代际收入弹性来度量。对代际收入弹性的估计，主流方法都是建立在变量误差模型基础上的。随着新数据集的使用，研究者对收入动态方程假设进行了修正，从而推动了变量误差模型的发展，反过来变量误差模型的发展促进了代际收入弹性的一致性估计。     

经济高速增长中的低就业问题

中国经济快速发展的过程中,出现了一些经济增长与就业增长相偏离的问题。本文通过对我就业弹性、就业增长率与经济增长率进行回归分析,表明我国就业弹性与经济增长是负相关的,就业增长率与经济增长率是正相关的,但是不显著。本文对此现象进行了原因分析及其提出了如何扩大就业的思路。     

国际金融危机就业效应的投入产出分析

 本文分别利用2007年非竞争型投入占用产出模型和引入非线性因子的局部非线性投入产出模型,从受国际金融危机影响最为直接的出口、投资角度出发,测算了国际金融危机对我国就业的影响。测算结果显示：在最近一年金融危机对我国就业影响是逐步加剧的;重点行业影响较为集中;由于我国宏观调控政策的及时准确,刺激经济计划的有效实施在很大程度上抵消了金融危机的影响;同时,非线性就业弹性能够更准确的反应行业产值和就业人数之间的非线性关系,将其引入投入产出经典模型能使模型更好地反映真实经济情况。     

Market Impact on IT Security Spending

Traditionally, IT security investment decisions are made in isolation. However, as firms that compete for customers in an industry are closely interlinked, a macro perspective is needed in analyzing these decisions. We utilize the notions of direct‐ and cross‐risk elasticity to describe the customer response to adverse IT security events in the firm and competitor, respectively, thus allowing us to analyze optimal security investment decisions. Examining both symmetric and asymmetric duopoly cases using a continuous‐time Markov chain (CTMC) model, we demonstrate that optimal IT security spending, expected firm profits and willingness of firms to cooperate on security improvements are highly dependent on the nature of customer response to adverse events. We also examine the investment problem when security attacks on different firms are correlated.     

转型社会的司法方法调整——关于司法和合主义的展开:柔性、本位、平行

中国转型社会正处于“发展黄金期、矛盾凸现期”,社会纠纷呈现出普遍性、冲击性、变异性的特点,社会不断将各种复杂矛盾大量引入司法裁判。但司法必须坚守有限性、被动性、稳定性的特质规定。司法过热、司法过硬、司法过变是当前司法应对转型社会纠纷失灵的主要原因。司法应当从中国国情出发回应转型社会,及时调整司法方法,走司法和合主义的道路。在依法治国的政治前提下,在法律的框架内,以公平正义为首要价值取向,强调司法的对应性、相融性、辩证性、和谐性。坚持底线正义保持司法的正确位置,强调本位司法;坚持程序公正保障司法的踏实稳健,强调平行司法;坚持方法弹性把握司法的对话协商,强调柔性司法。