语境论的修正及其对怀疑论难题的解决

认识的语境论在回应怀疑论难题的过程中,出现了多种修正的形式,包括以相对标准修正的语境论,以事实作为原因修正的语境论,以妥协方式修正的语境论,以证据修正的语境论,以预设修正的语境论。这些不同形式的语境论遇到了"斑马悖论"和摩尔主义的反驳,但语境论者认为这两个反驳不一定有效,正是它们忽视了语境的作用,才导致悖论的出现,要解决怀疑论难题,还得回到特定语境中去。     

“文化研究”在当代中国

文化研究在国内学界的盛行经历了一般异域理论的传播途径：平行译介、专文研讨和专著研究，但是在全球化的语境中又有特别表现，如网络参与、刊物角色转换、两岸三地学者共同关注和海外学界的介入，使构成文化研究的研究表现出分化的趋向，其中隐含的知识立场和价值判断值得深究。     

Social and semantic coevolution in knowledge networks

Socio-semantic networks involve agents creating and processing information: communities of scientists, software developers, wiki contributors and webloggers are, among others, examples of such knowledge networks. We aim at demonstrating that the dynamics of these communities can be adequately described as the coevolution of a social and a socio-semantic network. More precisely, we will first introduce a theoretical framework based on a social network and a socio-semantic network, i.e. an epistemic network featuring agents, concepts and links between agents and between agents and concepts. Adopting a relevant empirical protocol, we will then describe the joint dynamics of social and socio-semantic structures, at both macroscopic and microscopic scales, emphasizing the remarkable stability of these macroscopic properties in spite of a vivid local, agent-based network dynamics.     

Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P-Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

A wide range of uncertainties will be introduced inevitably during the process of performing a safety assessment of engineering systems. The impact of all these uncertainties must be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. Uncertainties present in the components (input parameters of model or basic events) of model output are propagated to quantify its impact in the final results. There are several methods available in the literature, namely, method of moments, discrete probability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, and Dempster-Shafer theory. All the methods are different in terms of characterizing at the component level and also in propagating to the system level. All these methods have different desirable and undesirable features, making them more or less useful in different situations. In the probabilistic framework, which is most widely used, probability distribution is used to characterize uncertainty. However, in situations in which one cannot specify (1) parameter values for input distributions, (2) precise probability distributions (shape), and (3) dependencies between input parameters, these methods have limitations and are found to be not effective. In order to address some of these limitations, the article presents uncertainty analysis in the context of level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) based on a probability bounds (PB) approach. PB analysis combines probability theory and interval arithmetic to produce probability boxes (p-boxes), structures that allow the comprehensive propagation through calculation in a rigorous way. A practical case study is also carried out with the developed code based on the PB approach and compared with the two-phase Monte Carlo simulation results.     

Probability and Possibility‐Based Representations of Uncertainty in Fault Tree Analysis

Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic‐possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility‐probability (probability‐possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context.     

Weak and strong laws of large numbers for coherent lower previsions

We prove weak and strong laws of large numbers for coherent lower previsions, where the lower prevision of a random variable is given a behavioural interpretation as a subject's supremum acceptable price for buying it. Our laws are a consequence of the rationality criterion of coherence, and they can be proven under assumptions that are surprisingly weak when compared to the standard formulation of the laws in more classical approaches to probability theory.     

怀疑论难题与认识的语境论的解决策略

知识的形成与确证是认识论的重要问题。围绕这个问题,语境论与怀疑论进行了长期的争论。认识的语境论认为,知识的形成与确证是依赖语境的,也即,知道还是不知道某个命题的意义在语境中是能够确定的,怀疑论则认为知道还是不知道与语境无关,知识不能确证,并举出各种例子如斑马案例予以反驳。为此,怀疑论者提出了怀疑论难题挑战语境论的主张,语境论内部则形成了诸如条件语境论、相关选择语境论等来回应怀疑论。无论双方争论的结果如何,怀疑论难题的提出为认识的语境论的产生与发展提供了契机,极大地推进了认识论的发展。     

When the victim becomes vicious: Combined effects of pseudo transformational leadership and epistemic motivation on contempt and deviant behaviors

Utilizing affective events theory (Weiss & Cropanzano, 1996), the current study unravels how and when pseudo-transformational leaders promote contempt, avoidance, and aggression. Specifically, we examined whether pseudo-transformational leadership enforces feelings of contempt, which, in turn, fosters interaction avoidance and covert aggression in followers. We hypothesized that contempt also has an indirect effect that is contingent on levels of epistemic motivation of followers. By adopting a multi-wave research design, we gathered data from 277 employees of the service sector of Pakistan. The results signified that followers of pseudo-transformational leaders feel contemptuous of them and respond with interaction avoidance and indirect aggression. Further, we found that the impact of pseudo-transformational leadership on contempt was more pronounced in individuals with higher levels of epistemic motivation. We believe that this study opens up a new avenue in the pseudo-transformational leadership literature by highlighting the mechanism and conditions under which such leaders are deleterious for organizations.     

Epistemic Uncertainty in the Ranking and Categorization of Probabilistic Safety Assessment Model Elements: Issues and Findings

In this work, we study the effect of epistemic uncertainty in the ranking and categorization of elements of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models. We show that, while in a deterministic setting a PSA element belongs to a given category univocally, in the presence of epistemic uncertainty, a PSA element belongs to a given category only with a certain probability. We propose an approach to estimate these probabilities, showing that their knowledge allows to appreciate " the sensitivity of component categorizations to uncertainties in the parameter values " (U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.174). We investigate the meaning and utilization of an assignment method based on the expected value of importance measures. We discuss the problem of evaluating changes in quality assurance, maintenance activities prioritization, etc. in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. We show that the inclusion of epistemic uncertainly in the evaluation makes it necessary to evaluate changes through their effect on PSA model parameters. We propose a categorization of parameters based on the Fussell-Vesely and differential importance (DIM) measures. In addition, issues in the calculation of the expected value of the joint importance measure are present when evaluating changes affecting groups of components. We illustrate that the problem can be solved using DIM. A numerical application to a case study concludes the work.     

“认知共同体”与全球环境治理

全球环境治理是国际关系中的一个新领域,全球环境问题对国际合作的实践和传统的国际关系理论都带来了挑战。而Peter M．Haas所发展的“认知共同体”理论,为理解国际环境合作提供了新的视角。“认知共同体”理论认为对特定环境议题持有共同理念的跨国科学家联盟有助于帮助决策者进行议题界定、厘清国家利益以及提供政策选择,从而有效地促进国际环境合作。