The bureaucratic response to economic fluctuation: An econometric investigation of Hungarian investment policies

This paper develops bureaucratic response functions within a “deviation from trend” econometric model to determine those factors that were related to fluctuations in aggregate investment finding and in the sectoral distribution of that aggretate during 1960–1975. Investment in buildings and investment in machinery are analyzed separately. On the national level, investment funding is found to respond to indicators of well-being, plan targets, bottlenecks, and foreign trade variables. Sectoral investment funding is based mainly on priority considerations.     

Experimental and contextual models of program evaluation

Evaluation research is one of the most rapidly evolving fields of applied behavioral science. As demand for program assessment has increased, the number of alternative evaluation approaches has also grown. As a result, everyday practitioners have often lacked sufficient guidelines for the choice of appropriate evaluation strategies.The present paper articulates an underlying epistemological distinction between (a) experimental evaluation models which simplify program realities in generalizable analyses of discrete causes and effects, and (b) contextual evaluation models which holistically examine particular program operations. These two evaluation approaches are directed at different purposes and are applicable to different program settings. A topology of program characteristics (breadth of goals, scope of treatment, specificity of results, and clarity of theory) is developed and linked to the appropriateness of experimental and contextual evaluation.     

Making a case for an interface between quasi-experimental designs and social impact analyses

This paper describes the community impact assessment conducted after Concorde operations were initiated at Dulles International Airport. Problems in the design and conduct of this study that make causal interpretations implausible are discussed. The present authors report an improved design to eliminate these problems as well as increase the external validity of the results. A discussion of how the careful implementation of quasiexperimental designs allows for treatment-related causal interpretations to be made is also included. Finally, it is emphasized that practical application of these data make it possible to improve the implementation of the treatment in communities receiving it at a later date.     

Cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis of developmental data

Methods appropriate to the analysis of longitudinal-panel data are not necessarily appropriate to the analysis of developmental data, because of the sequential order that developmental data are assumed to have. This paper compares, using data from a study of social categorization ability, the usual cross-sectional test for cumulative order (Guttman scaling) with a longitudinal test for sequential order using matrices. This matrix-based test is then compared to the analysis of differences in proportions. It is shown that the matrix-based test is more appropriate to the analysis of developmental data than either longitudinal difference-of-proportion analysis or the Guttman scale.     

Modeling oil price fluctuations and international stockpile coordination

Major interruptions in the supply of crude oil in the Middlle East have caused significant economic damage in terms of lost output and incresed inflation in the industrial countries. To the extent that the macroeconomic costs of shocks are a function of the magnitude of the oil price increases, domestic or internationally coordinated policies to restrain oil price increases during disruptions can be beneficial. One such policy initiative is the release of oil held in public stockpiles. We address the motivations for private and public stockpilling in an intertemporal optimizing model. As a special case of our general model, we develop and simulate a model of the world oil market to examine the benefits (in terms of lower world oil prices) of releasing oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.     

The impact of a Tax-Based Incomes Policy on U.S. macroeconomic performance: An optimal control study

This study attempts to estimate the potential impact of a Tax-Based Incomes Policy (TIP) on macroeconomic performance by applying an optimal control algorithm to the Wharton Quarterly Econometric Model. A TIP is any tax incentive that would induce firms and/or workers to reduce wage increases. Our study is applicable to any version of TIP. To isolate TIP's potential impact, we compare the optimal path of the economy without TIP to the optimal path of the economy with TIP. Our conclusion is that a TIP may be able to significantly improve the path of inflation, unemployment, and real GNP simultaneously.     

Reevaluating the uses of status: The case of earnings determination

Status and prestige variables and measures have been central to the sociological study of individual variations in income and other dependent variables for at least 2 decades. Yet theoretical and methodological rationales for the use of such variables in the explanation of income are problematic. This conclusion, along with some similar conclusions about other uses of status and prestige variables and measures, were reached after a review of Weberian, functionalist, and other prominent discussions of the uses of status/prestige in theory and research on income. It is suggested that an emphasis upon structural attributes of jobs is more promising than a continued emphasis upon evaluatory, status/prestige conceptions of jobs for effective theorizing about income determination. A quantitative analysis of earnings shows that income effects of a common measure of socio-economic status disappear in the context of a rudimentary structural model of income. It is concluded that social scientists should move on to use more varied attributes of jobs and exercise more caution in the use of status and prestige variables.