Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

霍兰的涌现性思想评析

霍兰在复杂性系统科学方面提出复杂自适应系统(CAS)理论.他提出的涌现性理论对创新研究具有重要意义.对霍兰的科学思想渊源关系、遗传算法、CAS理论、涌现性方面的奠基性工作加以详细研究和评述,进而确立了霍兰在遗传算法、复杂性系统科学上的奠基性地位.     

Mental health program evaluation: Where you start?

Seduced by the elegance, sophistication and jargon characteristic of new developments in applied research, practicing evaluators are in danger of becoming distracted from achievement of their evaluative goal: that of providing timely, reliable and useful data to program management to facilitate rational data-based decision-making. To avoid such seduction, the author advocates adaptation of simple, inexpensive and efficient evaluative methods tailored to organizational needs and presentation of findings in language readily understood by constituent groups. Likewise, insistance by evaluators upon maintenance of a strict role boundary — that is, limiting role functioning exclusively to those tasks considered evaluation — may be dysfunctional. Rather than detract from accomplishment of his goals, the author maintains that such participation allows development of skills, insights and staff relationships which enhance the evaluator's effective functioning within the organizational context and contribute to organizational acceptance and use of his evaluative results.     

荷兰高等教育教学质量保障模式的发展历程及特点分析

荷兰的教学质量保障模式是国际上著名的高等教育质量保障模式之一。荷兰高等教育教学质量保障模式的发展及荷兰大学认证制度的框架体系体现出荷兰高等教育教学质量保障模式的特点：其质量评估体系具有鲜明的时代性;质量保障的主要手段是认证而非政府管理;政府扮演监督和保证者的角色;注重高等教育机构内部的自我评估和良好的外部评估市场的营造;教学评估和科研评估相分离。     

South Korean College Students' Holland Types and Career Compromise Processes

This study explored South Korean college students' career compromise processes and examined whether preferences for sex type, prestige, or interests would be differentiated by Holland theme interest types, gender, or college major. Participants were South Korean undergraduate students from 2 universities in Seoul, South Korea. They were asked to choose 1 occupation from each of 168 pairs of occupations using a forced‐choice format. A total of 376 surveys were analyzed. There were significant main effects for Holland interest types and for gender but not for college major on their career compromise processes. Implications for career counselors and researchers are discussed.     

论《天望》的认识论意义和艺术价值

《天望》是荷兰华人女作家林湄积数十年对中西文化的思考创作的一部长篇小说。它首先是一部跨越东西方文化的文本,作者在作品中始终将对人类目前的生存状况和对人类历史与现实问题的分析思考置于东西方文明的多层次的交流与对话、批判与综合的语境中加以展开;它又是一部跨学科的文本,对东西方文化中的深层次问题,对历史与现实中困扰人类很久的问题均有讨论和探索;它又是一部交织着理想的幻灭、真理的追求、知识的快乐和智慧的狂欢的现代哲理性作品,是对古往今来的知识、文化进行交流、分析、批判、超越的探索性文学作品,它向读者暗示了一种更为理性的、更为人道的、具有形而上的认识论意义的怀疑主义,一种导致大彻大悟的怀疑主义。同时它也是一部开放性、多义性文本。     

荷兰华人的历史、现状及问题

本文以丰富的资料阐述了荷兰华人的历史演变、人口发展、职业形式及其转换以及家庭状态等状况,并具体分析了妇女和代沟等海外华人普遍存在并为研究人员所关注的现实问题,提出了自己的独到见解,同时对未来趋向作了展望。     

论郑成功驱荷复台的英雄业绩

郑成功是中华民族一位伟大的民族英雄。他一生的英雄业绩 ,包括抗清与收复台湾两大部分。其收复台湾的英雄业绩 ,一是表现在捍卫了中国的主权和领土完整 ,二是为缩小台湾与大陆的差距奠定了基础 ,三是鼓舞和支持了亚洲人民反对殖民主义的斗争。     

欧洲现实主义的早期榜样——论荷兰画派

欧洲19世纪的画坛,现实主义画家众多,作品浩瀚,是欧洲美术的主流。但对其影响最大的,不是欧洲南部的古希腊、古罗马,也不是有着优秀文化传统的意大利,而是欧洲北部尼德兰的画家凡.埃克兄弟与后来荷兰的伦勃朗,是他们从技法到风格为欧洲现实主义绘画树起了榜样。     

美国在印尼非殖民化过程中的政策变化及作用分析

按照战时美国关于印尼的计划,荷兰将有序地恢复其殖民统治,并指导印尼渐进地获得独立。但是,战后印尼民族主义者没有遵循美国所设想的非殖民化道路,而是建立起一个稳定的共和国政权。在荷兰与印尼冲突开始后,美国政府起初希望采取中立政策,以避开尴尬的非殖民化问题。但随着印尼局势的日益恶化,尤其是"茉莉芬事件"后,印尼共和国的反共倾向符合美国在东南亚的利益,而荷兰顽固的殖民政策已经威胁到美国战后外交政策目标的实现,美国最终选择了支持印尼走向非殖民化之路。