南汉割据及其政治设施探析

讨论五代时期南汉政权的建立及其主要设施,并对南汉割据原因进行分析。南汉是唐末社会动荡的产物,五代时期中原战乱频仍,南汉刘氏保据岭南免遭兵燹,大力推行中原文化,有利于地方经济和文化的发展。当中原局势稳定时,南汉便失去了存在的基本条件。     

论大理政权的军帅制——再论大理政权的性质

大理政权的基本军政制度是军政合一的军帅制。军帅制不同于自秦汉以来延续2000多年的封建君主专制帝制。封建君主帝制是中国封建社会贵族地主阶级实行专制统治的政治制度。军帅制则是农民起义军在农民战争中组织和领导农民起义军与封建专制帝制斗争的政体。大理政权的最高统帅总统兵马大元帅,不是一家一姓世袭的皇权的承袭者,而是在反清农民战争中,由各路起义军首领推举,拜帅任职,执掌大理政权最高权力。大理政权帅府采取合议制。帅府是大理政权的最高权力机构,主管大理政权军政事务。     

因子模型门槛效应的LM和Wald检验及其统计性质研究

门槛因子模型可以有效地刻画高维度时间序列的共变特征和区制转换行为,具有良好的可解释性和预测能力。针对因子载荷矩阵存在的门槛效应,本文提出了拉格朗日乘子和沃尔德检验方法,并给出了渐近分布,相关结果表明以上检验统计量具有良好的大样本性质和有限样本表现。在实证部分,以我国股市的行业指数作为研究对象,通过构建门槛因子模型来刻画我国股票市场波动的共变性特征和非对称效应。实证结果表明基于门槛因子模型可以很好地刻画中国股市行业收益率波动的共变特征和区制转换行为。     

Issues in Estimating New Keynesian Phillips Curves in the Presence of Unknown Structural Change

Many articles which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling that the expectations coefficient is biased upwards. A relatively general argument that has been advanced is that the bias could be due to structural changes in the means of the variables entering the structural equation. An alternative explanation is that the bias comes from weak instruments. In this article, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the estimated coefficients of the expectations variable based on a model where we can see what causes the breaks and how to control for them. We conclude that weak instruments are the most likely cause of any bias and note that structural change can affect the quality of instruments. We also look at some empirical work in Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) on the new Kaynesian Phillips curve (NYPC) in the Euro Area and U.S. assessing whether the smaller coefficient on expectations that Castle et al. (2014 Castle, J. L., Doornik, J. A., Hendry, D. F., Nymoen, R. (2014). Misspecification testing: non-invariance of expectations models of inflation. Econometric Reviews 33:5–6, 553–574, doi:10.1080/07474938.2013.825137[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) highlight is due to structural change. Our conclusion is that it is not. Instead it comes from their addition of variables to the NKPC. After allowing for the fact that there are weak instruments in the estimated re-specified model, it would seem that the forward coefficient estimate is actually quite high rather than low.     

中东地区的防核扩散治理机制建设探析

本文以机制建设为分析视角,讨论中东地区的防核扩散治理机制建设。本文认为,中东国家若以地区安全论坛为对话平台,通过在争议较小的非传统安全领域开展的合作治理行动增进信任,在防核扩散问题上引入“分步走”的治理措施,将更有可能在防扩散治理机制建设方面取得进展。     

The Politics and Discourse of Migrant Return: The Role of UNHCR and IOM in the Governance of Return

This article proposes that there is added value in moving beyond isolated studies of return-related migration policies in order to consider both deportations and so-called assisted voluntary returns under the common heading of ‘state-induced returns’. Based on official documents and interviews with staff members of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organisation for Migration, it argues that international actors working in the field of migrant return engage in a type of task-sharing that goes beyond functional complementariness. With regard to the return of rejected asylum seekers, for instance, they legitimise each other's engagement as well as the overarching return objectives of governments, and are, therefore, involved in norm-building regarding the acceptability of state-induced returns. In addition to setting certain minimum standards regarding states' treatment of their immigrant population, international actors assist states in upholding control over them. Rather than merely replacing state-led regulation, international actors thus support domestic governments in reaching their migration control objectives, and thereby contribute to a stabilisation of state sovereignty in the governance of migration.     

弘光政权武臣内部争斗述略

南明弘光政权是在李自成的农民军推翻大明王朝之后建立的,当时北方尚有清军与农民军两股势力对南方虎视眈眈,新政权处于岌岌可危之境.弘光政权的武臣正当为国分忧、保家卫国之时,然而他们非但未能建功立业,却暴露出种种恶劣行径,骚扰百姓,内讧斗狠,致使军队的战斗力下降,甚至投敌叛国.将大好河山拱手让人.其历史教训极为深刻.     

唃厮啰政权的“立文法”与宋朝藏汉关系立法

唃厮啰政权是吐蕃王朝分裂后在青海地区建立的藏族地方性政权,政权下辖各部落的关系主要以"立文法"的形式体现.另外唃厮啰面临着与宋朝之间的民族关系调整问题.同时,宋廷对处理藏族(当时称蕃部)关系注重法律手段的运用,一些较为灵活的法律措施在调整蕃汉民族的关系中起到了很好的作用.本文主要根据<续资治通鉴长编>和<续资治通鉴长编拾补>中的资料,结合<宋史>中的内容,对这一前人尚未展开研究的问题进行梳理.     

Testing Business Cycle Asymmetries Based on Autoregressions With a Markov-Switching Intercept

Implications of two concepts of asymmetry—deepness and steepness—are investigated for autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept. The formulas for the skewness of these processes and the skewness of the first differences of these processes are derived. The parameter restrictions leading to nondeepness and nonsteepness are presented for the special case of a first-order autoregression and two states. It is shown that these restrictions imply that previous tests for asymmetries in autoregressive processes with a Markov-switching intercept can lead to wrong conclusions. In an empirical application of the developed tests, the U.S. unemployment rate is found to be steep.     

南唐的统一构想与实践

五代十国时期是唐末藩镇割据的继续和发展。后梁的建立，标志着唐末的混乱局面已走向部分统一。此后，不少政权把国家统一作为自己的奋斗目标，为国家的统一进行不同程度的努力。南唐也推动了五代十国最终走向统一的历史进程。