基于重复购买理论的一种新的客户选择方法

在今天越来越激烈的市场竞争之中,越来越多的公司已经从产品驱动的市场竞争策略转向客户驱动的市场竞争策略。并且随着计算机技术及数据挖掘方法的飞速发展,直接市场营销越来越受到重视。如何选择目标客户邮寄货单的问题也就越来越引起市场直销者的兴趣。计分模型及增益表选择方法和单群预测及选择方法是目前普遍采用的两种客户选择方法。在平稳市场的假设下,客户的购买模式服从著名的重复购买理论。基于这个理论,本文提出了一种新的客户选择方法,即两群预测及选择方法。应用实际的客户数据比较这三种不同的方法,结果表明新方法表现最好。     

中国家用轿车初购者与再购者的决策过程差异研究

中国的家用轿车市场正在从以初购者为主的新兴市场向以初购、再购者并重的成熟市场转变.再购者与初购者的购车决策过程存在系统性差异.本研究探索了中国家用轿车初购者与再购者在属性感知一价值判断一态度形成一行为意向这一决策过程的差别.我们通过对北京4802名有购车意向的消费者(2182名初购者与2620名再购者)的调查,发现初购者与再购者在以下四方面存在显著差异:(1)在属性方面,初购者更重视品牌声誉这一外在属性,而再购者更重视汽车的内在属性(内外设计、做工及驾驶性能);(2)在价值方面,初购者更在意车辆的情感价值,而再购者更追求功能价值;(3)在行为方面,初购者更易受周围社会群体的影响,而再购者更听从内心态度的主宰;(4)在购买方面,虽然初购者与再购者都更倾向于购买高销量品牌,但相对于初购者,再购者能更多地尝试低销量品牌.     

Reemployment Probability and Multiple Unemployment Spells: A Partial-Likelihood Approach

An extended version of the mixed-proportional-hazards model is used to study the determinants of the conditional probability of reemployment of long-term unemployed young persons sampled in the first stage of the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The survey data facilitate an econometric comparison between the effect of different factors on the conditional reemployment probability of those in their first unemployment spell with those who have experienced multiple spells. The article uses Cox's partial-likelihood approach. The empirical results support the hypothesis of lagged-duration dependence in that the length of previous job experience or the duration of previous unemployment is found to be an important determinant of reemployment probability. The results strongly suggest that fitting a common duration model to data from different spells involves a major misspecification.     

元杂剧上场诗刍议

元杂剧中上场诗使用频率极高,使用比例相当大,但至今未引起人们的足够重视和专题研究。本文从上场诗的类型、体式、功用及重复情况四个方面进行了初步探讨,力图发掘总结出元杂剧上场诗的某些显著特征,以期引起人们对此问题的进一步研究。     

当前西方哲学研究存在的四个误区

当前中国的西方哲学研究明显存在着四个误区 :误区之一是重述介轻对话。这主要表现为 ,到目前为止 ,对西方哲学的研究成果大多是翻译和介绍 ,很少见就西方哲学的一些问题发表自己见解的成果。造成这种状况的原因有二 ,一由两种研究方式本身的特点所致 ;二与中国现行的学术评价制度有关。误区之二是求“新”心切。所谓“新” ,是指对西方学者及其著作的不断抢先介绍 ,以维持其学术价值。这种求“新”是重述介式研究所导致的结果 ,它容易使人养成浮躁心理与玩弄辞藻的习惯。误区之三是缺乏批判意识。批判意识的缺乏在一定程度上是由一种传统观念即对批判的恐惧与敌视造成的。前者与批判在过去的政治斗争中扮演的角色有关 ,后者则是由于将批判概念伦理化的结果。误区之四是在研究志趣上重宏观轻微观。主要表现为在内容上偏爱本体论与宏观认识论 ,对方法论与微观认识论则相对忽视 ;在对象的所在区域上偏爱欧洲大陆的思辨哲学 ,对英美的分析哲学则相对忽视 ;在类型上偏爱人文哲学 ,对科学哲学则相对忽视。这一特点实际上是中国传统思维方式在西方哲学研究上的表现     

Crime victimization: its extent and communication

Summary. The criminal justice contexts are identified in which understanding and communicating risks are important. The paper is thereafter exclusively concerned with the probability of crime victimization classified by person and location. Examples of crime risks derived from the British Crime Survey are provided, with instances of where concern about crime diverges from risks of crime. Caution is advocated about seeking to reduce the fear of crime by reassurance. The high levels of concentration of crime by location are noted, together with the fact that particular individuals and households are repeatedly victimized, enabling the prioritization of crime-reductive resources after a crime has taken place. The paper concludes that an emphasis on how the supply of criminal opportunities may be regulated heralds a more systematic approach to the distribution of unavoidable hazard among citizens.     

A Panel Based Analysis of the Effects of Race/Ethnicity and Other Individual Level Characteristics at Leaving on Returning

Individual level differentials between migrants and nonmigrants are examined to ascertain the likelihood of return migration to a prior residence based on characteristics at the time of departure from place of origin. Analysis focuses on comparisons of Hispanics, blacks and whites, examining the odds of return migration by education, employment status, marital status, home ownership, length of residence, gender, age, and migration interval. The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) is utilized to identify 13,798 preliminary migrations that may be followed by at least one return migration. Findings indicate a sharp decline in propensity to return migrate as length of absence from origin increases. Regardless of length of time since the preliminary migration, both blacks and Hispanics are more likely to return migrate than are whites. Individuals who resided at place of origin for longer periods before leaving had strikingly higher odds for return migration.     

适用于楼宇住房的重复售出价格指数模型研究

与欧美国家不同,我国的住房以楼宇住房为主。对于同一栋楼宇,不同楼层的同一户型,除楼层差别外,其他居住品质基本相同。因此,本文提出了“类重复”交易规则,用于把同一楼盘的不同时期销售的住房转化成可以直接对比的同质性产品的“重复交易”,从而将国外较为主流的重复售出模型应用到我国新建住房价格指数构建中。本文分析了楼宇住房建筑和定价特征,发掘了楼宇住宅“同质性”样本的“类重复”规则,设置了消除直接对比偏差的“配对规则”,以及编制指数需要的基期价格计算和特殊事件处理规则。利用脱敏后的新建住房合同交易数据,本文的实证模拟验证了类重复规则的可行性,并讨论了指数偏差和使用原则。     

中美住房价格指数编制的对比研究

本文以国家统计局编制的“70个大中城市房屋销售价格指数”和美国标准普尔卡斯-席勒住房价格指数为代表,对中美住房价格指数编制的实践进行了对比分析。 在此基础上,对进一步改进与完善我国的住房价格指数提出了自己的看法。     

Characterizing the reconstruction and enumerating the patterns of DNA sequences with repeats

A repeat in a DNA sequence is a substring that appears more than once. In DNA sequencing, the occurrence of repeats may hinder the unique reconstruction. In addition, the number of possible reconstructions depends on the pattern of repeats in a DNA sequence. Arratia et al. studied the patterns of DNA sequences with twofold repeats that result in k-way reconstructions. In this paper, multiple-fold repeats, including twofold repeats, are considered. For each pattern of DNA repeats, the possible reconstructions of the DNA sequence are enumerated by its reduced digraph. Then the reconstructions of DNA sequences with repeats are characterized using the pattern graphs. Finally, for DNA sequences with n repeats, the patterns of DNA repeats resulting in k-way reconstruction are enumerated. Dedicated to Professor Frank K. Hwang on the occasion of his 65th birthday.