Goodness—of—fit for the two—parameter weibull distribution with estimated parameters

Goodness—of—fit statistics based on the empirical distribution function (EDF) are not distribution—free when parameters for the hypothesized distribution are estimated. Tables are percentile values of several EDF statistics are available for the two—parameter Weibull distribution when parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood. To determine how these tabled values change when simpler estimators are employed, percentile scores for EDF goodness—of—fit tests were obtained by Monte—Carlo simulation for maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs), good linear unbiased estimators (GLUEs), and modified Cramer—von Mises, Anderson—Darling, and Watson statistics are presented for GLUEs for both complete and censored samples. Critical values for Kolmogorov—Smirnov statistics were less affected by the method of estimation than were closer for MLEs and MGLUEs than for MGLUEs and GLUEs. On the other hand, MGLUE and GLUE results were much more similar to each other than to the MLE results when censoring was light and sample sizes were large.     

频数分布法与上市公司盈余管理动机研究

频数分布法是研究上市公司盈余管理动机的一种方法。通过采用频数分布法研究我国A股上市公司的盈余管理行为,发现我国上市公司为了避免亏损或为了获得配股权及增发权而通过盈余管理将净资产收益率(ROE)维持在略高于0、6%与10%的区间上。进一步分析总资产收益率(ROA)的分布,证明其与ROE的分布存在系统性差异,说明上市公司为了达到配股及格线可能操纵了净资产。上市公司盈余管理行为随着配股政策和增发政策的演进而改变。     

1949-1956年马克思主义中国化对主流意识形态的重构——基于意识形态政治社会化的分析

1949—1956年,为了促进马克思主义及其中国化的最新理论成果由主导意识形态向主流意识形态的转化,党着力通过马克思主义中国化的实践,在观念化意识形态、科学化意识形态、制度化意识形态和社会化意识形态等层面进行了新构建.具体来说,就是创新和调适马克思主义意识形态的基本理论与范畴,构建了新的观念化意识形态;确立和实现马克思主义的话语理性权威与由其为指导的基本研究范式,构建了新的科学化意识形态;促进马克思主义中国化的理论成果转化为引领、推动新社会变革的路线方针政策和法律法规,构建了新的制度化意识形态;用马克思主义理论及其中国化最新成果规导民众社会行为的心理动因和行为准则,构建了新的社会化意识形态.这四个层面的新构建,从总体上达到了消解旧主流意识形态和塑造新主流意识形态这一“除旧布新”的目的.     

基于趋势面分析的ST类上市公司分布特征研究

上证所与深证所共有1727只股票(含B股)(截止2010年5月7日),其中ST类股票169只.本文运用趋势面分析对ST类股票的分布特征进行了研究.研究结果表明,地理位置与ST类公司的数量之间有显著的相关性,了解其分布特征可以帮助投资者判断某一地理区域投资环境的优劣.     

论机关管理的价值目标取向

作为与广义行政管理具有密切联系的机关管理,其价值取向必然与行政管理的价值取向具有一致性,与农业、工业、信息社会相对应,行政管理的价值取向经历了由稳定→效率→治理服务的转变,相应的机关管理的价值目标也应经历这三个阶段和境界。当前机关管理的价值目标取向是以以人为本为核心,以治理理念为框架的服务社会理念。     

基于财务指标的ST公司退市风险判别研究

ST类股票是股市中非常独特的一个群体,存在一定的投资价值。以ST公司的资产负债率等九项财务指标为依据,运用齐同性检验和典则判别函数,对其中的退市公司和未退市公司进行分析,发现资产负债率、应收账款周转率、资产周转率等是影响ST公司命运的主要因素,ST类股票投资者应特别关注ST公司的负债情况、经营周转情况和业务收入情况,以规避其退市风险。     

公司财务危机预警的会计报表透视——基于ST夏利股份有限公司的案例分析

本文运用F分数模型和杜邦分析法对ST夏利股份有限公司2000年至2002年的财务状况进行全面系统的分析,我们发现(1)该公司从2001年起就存在潜在的财务危机,2002年该公司的财务危机进一步恶化和表面化;(2)销售收入下降、成本费用膨胀和企业规模恶意扩张是导致公司发生财务危机的根本原因.     

Costs and distortion of U.S. regulation policy in intercoastal lumber shipping

This article quantitatively analyzes the various impacts of current U.S. coastal restrictions on the Northwest lumber industry. The history of U.S. maritime regulation is briefly reviewed and a simulation model is developed to measure its affect on lumber shipments and transport costs. The results of the model indicate that aggregate cost redutions obtained through deregulation are likely to be small. The pattern of intercoastal shipments could change a great deal, however, with U.S. producers picking up a large share of the Northeast market.     

Marshall–Olkin gamma–Weibull distribution with applications

Abstract

A Marshall–Olkin variant of the Provost type gamma–Weibull probability distribution is being introduced in this paper. Some of its statistical functions and numerical characteristics among others characteristics function, moment generalizing function, central moments of real order are derived in the computational series expansion form and various illustrative special cases are discussed. This density function is utilized to model two real data sets. The new distribution provides a better fit than related distributions as measured by the Anderson–Darling and Cramér–von Mises statistics. The proposed distribution could find applications for instance in the physical and biological sciences, hydrology, medicine, meteorology, engineering, etc.