A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

德曼的“新社会主义哲学”和他的“新发现”

亨利·德曼的“新社会主义哲学”建立在对马克思主义的批判基础上，并与资产阶级哲学实行联姻，德曼在马克思《１８４４年经济学哲学手搞》中的“新发现”表明的不过是对马克思主义的严重曲解，这一哲学不仅在理论上没有给社会主义运动贡献新东西，而且在实践上蜕变成了与法西斯合流的反动力量．     

具有中国特色的执政党建设理论的创立——兼谈改革开放30年党的建设的经验

改革开放的每一重大战略部署和伟大实践，都包含着党的建设的新举措和党的建设理论的新探索。党的建设的实践和理论的每一创新发展，也反过来推进和保证了中国特色社会主义经济、政治、文化、社会建设和各个领域的改革。中国共产党对历史方位转变和执政党建设理论的认识，已经达到了新的高度，提出要“深化对共产党执政规律的认识”这一命题，本身就是中国共产党在30年党的建设理论创新过程中，获得的一个重要成果。我们研究具有中国特色的马克思主义执政党建设理论。从根本上说，就是要认识执政规律，尊重执政规律，努力按照执政规律加强执政党建设，加强和改善党对中国特色社会主义事业的领导，完成党肩负的伟大历史使命。     

Role of informal sector recycling in waste management in developing countries

Many thousands of people in developing country cities depend on recycling materials from waste for their livelihoods. With the focus of the Millennium Development Goals on poverty reduction, and of waste strategies on improving recycling rates, one of the major challenges in solid waste management in developing countries is how best to work with this informal sector to improve their livelihoods, working conditions and efficiency in recycling.The general characteristics of informal recycling are reviewed, highlighting both positive and negative aspects. Despite the health and social problems associated with informal recycling, it provides significant economic benefits that need to be retained. Experience shows that it can be highly counterproductive to establish new formal waste recycling systems without taking into account informal systems that already exist. The preferred option is to integrate the informal sector into waste management planning, building on their practices and experience, while working to improve efficiency and the living and working conditions of those involved. Issues associated with integrating informal recycling into the formal waste management sector are discussed.     

西方发达国家的就业促进经验及其对中国的启示

近年来 ,随着中国改革开放的深入开展 ,城镇失业率迅速上升。西方发达国家在就业领域 ,都曾经历了失业率上升的发展阶段。为降低失业率 ,各国采取了不尽相同但却切实有效的就业促进措施 ,积累了丰富的就业促进经验。中国也可以借鉴这些就业促进经验 ,以期逐步降低失业率     

中国电信市场未来发展趋势研究

通过对西方国家具有代表性的美英两国近年来电信市场引入竞争的开放策略进行对比分析,结合我国电信市场的改革历程和独有特性,指出未来中国电信市场将在政府的规范和监督下,合理进行产业布局,迅速提高电信企业的技术创新和差异化竞争能力,不断增强国际竞争力。     

To what extent is social security spending associated with enhanced firm-level performance? A case study of SMEs in Indonesia

Although the relationship between social protection and enterprise performance is much debated in the literature, evidence is particularly limited in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises in developing economies. Using census data from 2010 to 2014, this article examines how the provision of social security influenced business performance in Indonesia. The author finds that increased social security spending of 10 per cent is associated with a per-worker revenue gain of up to 2 per cent. Moreover, profits are not found to decrease with increased social protection coverage, suggesting that increasing worker benefits may be a worthwhile business investment.     

Secondary school dropout and work outcomes in ten developing countries

This paper analyzes the impact of secondary school dropout on the work outcomes of young people in ten developing countries. Understanding such a phenomenon is important because it may affect work prospects, exacerbate income inequality and determine macroeconomic lasting effects given that the formation of a skilled workforce is a key element of economic development and growth.When accounting for endogeneity, we find that secondary school dropout decreases the probability of being employed in non-elementary occupations, suggesting that unskilled workers fail to meet the increasing demand for a skilled workforce. Secondary school dropout, indeed, hinders the accumulation of adequate levels of human capital and anticipates entry into the unskilled labor market.Thus, policy-makers should aim at the extension and efficacy of compulsory education to the secondary level to avoid future under-education problems to promote a skilled workforce and encourage economic development and growth in the long run.     

Early-life mortality clustering in families: A literature review

Research on early-life mortality in contemporary and historical populations has shown that infant and child mortality tend to cluster in a limited number of high-mortality families, a phenomenon known as ‘mortality clustering’. This paper is the first to review the literature on the role of the family in early-life mortality. Contemporary results, methodological and theoretical shortfalls, recent developments, and opportunities for future research are all discussed in this review. Four methodological approaches are distinguished: those based on sibling deaths, mother heterogeneity, thresholds, and excess deaths in populations. It has become clear from research to date that the death of an older child harms the survival chances of younger children in that family, and that fertility behaviour, earlier stillbirths, remarriages, and socio-economic status all explain mortality clustering to some extent.