互联网深化、信息不确定性与企业出口平稳性

互联网作为信息搜寻和传播的重要渠道,有利于缓解国际市场不确定性对企业出口决策的影响,从而有助于稳定企业出口预期,保障出口企业的持续生存。本文首先基于Fernandes 和 Tang(2014)的研究框架将互联网深化程度和出口集聚同时纳入到异质性贸易企业模型,在剥离出口集聚对企业出口行为影响的基础上,从理论视角揭示了互联网深化程度提高影响企业出口行为特别是出口持续生存的内在机理与方向。研究发现,不同于出口集聚会同时影响企业的需求冲击和成本冲击,互联网深化带来的信息溢出效应会通过贝叶斯法则(Bayesian Rule)使得企业修正其对国际市场不确定性的预期,提高其对目的国市场成本冲击的估计精度,从而在互联网深化程度较高的城市,企业进入出口市场的临界生产率较低,有利于其出口参与度和出口稳定性的提高。然而互联网深化程度提高不影响企业在目的国市场产品出口的集约边际。本文使用2000-2013 年中国工业企业数据库、中国海关数据库和中国城市统计年鉴数据库的匹配数据从企业-目的国-产品层面实证检验了本文的理论命题。研究表明,我国政府应充分发挥互联网发展降低信息不确定性的微观机制,以推动外贸的平稳增长。     

雷诺润滑系统中的瞬态响应和稳定性分析

章建立了雷诺润滑系统中的流体瞬态压力方程和镜板的运动方程，分析了该系统的瞬态响应和相对阻尼系数以及特征值，结果表明，雷诺润滑系统不会处于负阻尼运动状态，且系统是稳定的。     

網絡組織成員合作的穩定性模型分析

本文應用博弈論建立了一個網絡組織成員合作的穩定性模型,通過模型分析作者提出網絡組織的穩定性依賴於多種因素,其中,信任機制、懲罰機制是網絡組織穩定的基本因素。本文通過對中國網絡組織的一般性分析,指出特殊主義文化背景下的中國網絡組織的信任機制和懲罰機制更多的來源於非正式制度,而非正式制度作用的空間局限性,是導致中國區際網絡組織穩定性差的重要原因,本文最後提出了中國網絡組織穩定性提升的建議。     

Development and validation of a Citizenship Attributional Style Questionnaire

Attribution theory remains popular in the social sciences and often informs education studies. However, attributional style questionnaires tend to reflect the context-dependent character of the theory and existing measures have been found to have poor psychometric properties. Clearly, both issues need to be carefully considered by researchers prior to them applying any scales that incorporate attributional dimensions. Here we report on the development of a reliable and valid measure that applies an attributional style within the context of citizenship. Two separate studies were conducted to inform the development of the Citizenship Attributional Style Questionnaire (CASQ). The factor loadings of eight positive and eight negative events for the internality and stability dimensions were found to range between .41 and .75. The Cronbach’s alpha reliability of positive and negative events were found to be .79 and .74, respectively. While CASQ is seen to be a reliable and valid measure, the results also indicate broader psychometric properties than many of the instruments currently used in studies with an attributional approach.     

基层维稳的“人墙”模式及其反思——基于小镇在某祭祀活动中的维稳实录

维护社会稳定是基层治理中的重要工作。在节日及重大活动中保持社会秩序稳定,防止诉求者在政府认为不适当的时候,以不适当的方式对外宣泄诉求是基层治理中常规的维稳内容。文章通过描述鄂北一个小镇在某次祭祀活动中的维稳过程,试图说明,目前小镇乃至于全国多数乡镇在维持社会稳定中,惯用一种以人盯人为手段,利用很多人员构筑出多层次的"人墙",将可疑对象控制在"墙"内,最大程度限制其向外界宣泄诉求的"人墙"模式。尽管,在多道"人墙"的阻隔下,维稳效果能达到治理者的预期目的,但这种维稳模式成本过大,而且只是暂时隐藏矛盾而不能真正解决问题,从长远看,不具有可持续性。同时,采取这种方式维稳可能激发诉求者对政府的不满,暴露政府维稳工作的"软肋",甚至可能导致政府和诉求者的关系陷入恶性循环,其最终后果可能是大幅度提高政府维稳的成本和代价。     

我国A股市场复杂网络结构及稳定性研究

本文运用复杂网络分析方法,从一个全新的角度分析中国A股市场个股的相关性,以2014年至2015年间的股票市场交易数据为基础,以上证180指数成分股股票为样本,构建我国股票市场的复杂网络系统。通过计算分析股票网络的拓扑特征统计量,并与美股成熟市场进行比较,研究我国A股市场个股联动的网络结构;同时,在我国金融市场进一步开放的大背景下,本文通过研究样本股票网络在不同情形攻击下网络结构的变化,探索A股市场不同公司股价波动的联动性规律,为监管者稳定证券市场,特别是在“股灾”等极端情况下维持证券市场的流动性功能提供新的决策参考,以利于中国证券市场更好地为经济转型提供金融支持,保护中小投资者利益。     

试论双回路维稳模型

社会领域也存在某种惯性趋势,即社会趋稳性。这一概念的提出旨在说明,一切不稳定的产生,必定是受到某种作用力的结果。而社会趋稳性与变动力量的结合,便会造成不同程度的反作用力。这种反弹行为在实践中很容易被界定为＂不稳定因素＂。由于维稳的主客体都是人,而＂人是需求动物＂,所以,维稳的具体政策若不能够融入人的思考、理解及感情,将很难实现人际有效的沟通,进而妨碍动态稳定的实现。以组织平衡理论、需求层次理论、安全阀理论及组织学习理论为基础的双回路维稳模型的提出,旨在强调人类需求、基本秩序以及自然法则在维稳中的关键作用。     

吉尔吉斯斯坦政治稳定的政治文化解读

吉尔吉斯斯坦自独立以来出现的民众对国家认同的传统政治文化的缺失,对于现代政治文化的脆弱、部族主义政治文化的坐大以及植入政治文化的＂感召＂,构成吉政治文化的＂碎片化＂状态,共同催生了近20年的政治动荡。文章通过对吉政治文化的解读,揭示吉政治文化对其政治稳定的影响。     

An Enhanced Double MEWMA Controller for Drifted MIMO Systems

For a drifted multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO) system, the double multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (dMEWMA) controller is a popular run-to-run (RTR) controller for adjusting the process mean to a desired target. The stability and performance of dMEWMA controller had been widely studied in literature. Although the dMEWMA controller (with suitable discount matrices) can guarantee long-term stability, it usually requires a moderately large number of runs to bring the process output to approach its desired target if the initial recipe is not chosen appropriately. Due to the initial recipe possibly having an infinite number of feasible solutions for MIMO systems, “how to determine an optimal setting for the initial recipe” turns out to be an interesting research topic. In this article, by solving a constrained optimization problem, we first obtain an optimal initial setting for the input recipe. Then, motivated by this setting, we propose an enhanced dMEWMA controller. The long-term stability conditions and short-term performance of the proposed controller are also addressed. Given a fixed and finite production run, it reveals that the proposed controller has the ability of reducing total mean squared error (TMSE) better than the conventional dMEWMA controller.     

Measuring and analysing supply chain schedule stability: A case study in the automotive industry

Final assembly plants send material schedules to first-tier suppliers who in turn send schedules to second-tier suppliers and so on through the multiple tiers of the supply chain. A key cost driver for the supply chain is a schedule characteristic termed stability. The Total Quality Management approach is applied to improve schedule stability in the supply chain of a large vertically integrated automotive manufacturer. A measurement described, actual stability results are provided, the causes of instability are listed, and some corrective actions are specified. Results indicate that schedule stability can be improved without damaging the performance of other measures such as inventory and customer responsiveness. and analysis process is