“东突”恐怖活动的国际因素及预防措施

近年来,中国发生了一系列的暴力恐怖事件,恐怖分子持续从事恐怖袭击活动。其背后,存在着若干深层次原因。其中,“双泛”思想、西方敌对势力的帮助和来自中亚的影响,是目前促使“东突”恐怖势力从事恐怖活动的主要国际因素。作者认为,加强丝绸之路经济带沿线国家之间的合作和完善国内防治“东突”恐怖势力的社会对策,在打击“东突”恐怖势力方面起很重要的作用。     

The impact of a workplace terrorist attack on employees' perceptions of leadership: A longitudinal study from pre- to postdisaster

A terrorist attack targeting a workplace represents an organizational crisis that requires the leaders to manage emerging threats. The changing roles and expectations of the leaders are reflected in the employees' perceptions of them over time. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the 2011 Oslo bombing attack affected the targeted employees' perceptions of the leadership behaviors of their immediate superiors or the organizational managers' interest in the health and well-being of their workers. Ministerial employees (n ≈ 180) completed questionnaires on fair, empowering, and supportive leadership, in addition to human resource primacy, on two occasions several years prior to the terrorist attack. Assessments were then repeated one, two, and three years after the attack. Changes in the course of perceived leadership from predisaster to postdisaster were examined using bootstrapped t-tests and latent growth curve models. Furthermore, the general course of perceived leadership was compared with a nonexposed control sample of matched employees. Results showed that employees with high levels of posttraumatic stress perceived their immediate leader to be less supportive. However, overall perceptions of leadership were remarkably stable, which suggests that the effects of critical incidents on perceptions of leadership may be negligible.     

Ranking terrorists in networks: A sensitivity analysis of Al Qaeda's 9/11 attack

All over the world, intelligence services are collecting data concerning possible terrorist threats. This information is usually transformed into network structures in which the nodes represent the individuals in the data set and the links possible connections between these individuals. Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to keep track of all individuals in the resulting complex network. Therefore, Lindelauf et al. (2013) introduced a methodology that ranks terrorists in a network. The rankings that result from this methodology can be used as a decision support system to efficiently allocate the scarce surveillance means of intelligence agencies. Moreover, usage of these rankings can improve the quality of surveillance which can in turn lead to prevention of attacks or destabilization of the networks under surveillance.The methodology introduced by Lindelauf et al. (2013) is based on a game theoretic centrality measure, which is innovative in the sense that it takes into account not only the structure of the network but also individual and coalitional characteristics of the members of the network. In this paper we elaborate on this methodology by introducing a new game theoretic centrality measure that better takes into account the operational strength of connected subnetworks.Moreover, we perform a sensitivity analysis on the rankings derived from this new centrality measure for the case of Al Qaeda's 9/11 attack. In this sensitivity analysis we consider firstly the possible additional information available about members of the network, secondly, variations in relational strength and, finally, the absence or presence of a small percentage of links in the network. We also introduce a case specific method to compare the different rankings that result from the sensitivity analysis and show that the new centrality measure is robust to small changes in the data.     

试论西方民主的欺骗性

西方民主正在世界范围大行其道,但西方民主并非完美,其实与完美完全无关。民主是一种社会制度,没有也不可能有普适性。民主的存在是有条件和范围的,强行推广某一民主理念,只能带来无尽的灾难。经济滑坡、国家分裂;恐怖主义、民族分离主义,种族偏见与民族歧视,人的全面异化,贫富差距急剧增大,拜金主义等等严重政治、社会问题与一味鼓吹西方的所谓民主、自由、人权有着密不可分的联系。所谓西方民主的美好只是幻影,西方民主只是西方国家用来掩盖其疯狂攫取利益的工具。认识西方民主的欺骗性,不仅是一个重要的理论问题,也是一个事关民族独立与国家发展的根本问题。     

Positioning terrorism in management and marketing: Research propositions

Terrorism poses both direct and indirect threats to the operations of the firm. It represents a market imperfection that increases transaction costs and creates barriers to the free flow of goods, affecting potential gains that would occur in the presence of unhindered exchange. Terrorism reflects the risk or actual encounter of violent acts, whose goal is to engender fear, coercion, or intimidation. We investigate terrorism and its association with marketing strategy and operations. Key concepts on terrorism are reviewed and a collection of propositions is offered. We highlight the pivotal roles of sourcing, production, distribution, pricing, communications, and general business strategy as functions influenced by, or capable of influencing, terrorism. Lastly, we offer managerial implications, as well as directions and guidelines for future research.     

The influence of perceived shared risk in crisis communication: Elaborating the situational theory of publics

The study explored whether perceived shared experience with a media portrayal could influence various cognitions—such as concern, sense of personal involvement, and desire to learn more—that are important for behavior change. This research used the situational theory of publics in order to evaluate whether perceived shared risk is an antecedent to the factors leading to communication behavior. In general, the findings from this experiment supported the idea that shared risk experience with portrayals in news coverage has the potential to influence problem recognition, involvement recognition, and a new variable that combines information seeking and processing: that of information gaining.     

中东恐怖主义、全球治理与中国的反恐政策

中东反恐斗争是国际反恐中最关键、最具影响的组成部分,也是国际社会面临的全球治理问题之一。它与当代的国际体系转型和政治经济秩序的重建分不开,又同中东伊斯兰国家在经济全球化深入推进的形势下,如何处理现代化进程中的改革与发展、实现制度变迁和社会转型直接相关。从中东恐怖主义产生的根源、发展和蔓延的轨迹看,中东恐怖主义既蕴含着错综复杂的历史、社会、宗教、民族等内部因素,也掺杂着外来侵略、占领、干涉以及地区国家之间领土、资源和利益等方面的矛盾和冲突等外部环境因素。中国的反恐政策既出于保护海外利益的需要,也折射了中国独特的全球治理理念和治理模式。     

Does exposure to a traumatic event make organizations resilient?

Why do some organizations bounce-back from traumatic events more quickly than others? While the research on organizations offers extensive insights on recovery from economic or technological shocks, there is limited understanding of how organizations recover from life-threatening events such as terrorist attacks. In this study, we build on the research on resilience and argue that organizational recovery from a traumatic event is informed by the perception of threat. Higher perception of threat increases inter-organizational collaboration and the care associated with the deployment of slack as well as to learning. We tested our arguments with a sample of US and non-US firms before and after the 9/11 terrorist attacks and found that, due to spatial proximity, US firms’ higher perception of threat led to a larger increase in the frequency of inter-organizational alliances than that of non-US firms. This preference was more frequently directed towards local partners and demonstrated a distinct emphasis on slack and learning. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our findings suggest that organizational resilience in the face of a traumatic event benefits not from immunity but from spatial proximity to the threat. Proximity increases the perception of threat, and with it, the impetus for adaptation.     

Communicating strategically in the face of terrorism: The Spanish government's response to the 2004 Madrid bombing attacks

With the re-emergence of insurgency tied to terrorism, governments need to strategically manage their communications. This paper analyzes the effect of the Spanish government's messaging in the face of the Madrid bombing of March 11, 2004: unlike what happened with the 9/11 bombings in the USA and the 7/07 London attacks, the Spanish media did not support the government's framing of the events. Taking framing as a strategic action in a discursive form (Pan & Kosicki, 2003), and in the context of the attribution theory of responsibilities, this research uses the “cascading activation” model (0030 and 0035) to explore how a framing contest was generated in the press. Analysis of the coverage shows that the intended government frame triggered a battle among the different major newspapers, leading editorials to shift their frame over the four days prior to the national elections. This research analyzes strategic contests in framing processes and contributes insight into the interactions among the different sides (government, parties, media, and citizens) to help bring about an understanding of the rebuttal effect of the government's intended frame. It also helps to develop an understanding of the role of the media and the influence of citizens’ frames on media content.