Partial Identification of Economic Mobility: With an Application to the United States

Abstract

The economic mobility of individuals and households is of fundamental interest. While many measures of economic mobility exist, reliance on transition matrices remains pervasive due to simplicity and ease of interpretation. However, estimation of transition matrices is complicated by the well-acknowledged problem of measurement error in self-reported and even administrative data. Existing methods of addressing measurement error are complex, rely on numerous strong assumptions, and often require data from more than two periods. In this article, we investigate what can be learned about economic mobility as measured via transition matrices while formally accounting for measurement error in a reasonably transparent manner. To do so, we develop a nonparametric partial identification approach to bound transition probabilities under various assumptions on the measurement error and mobility processes. This approach is applied to panel data from the United States to explore short-run mobility before and after the Great Recession.     

Changes in work and care trajectories during the transition to motherhood

In most mid- and high-income countries, there have been significant demographic, structural, and cultural changes in the past decades. However, we know little about how these changes have shaped women's work patterns during a key life stage: the transition to motherhood. Using longitudinal data from Chile, covering over 30 years of employment histories and three periods of first births (1980–2010), I conduct sequence analysis to identify women's work-care trajectories during an eight-year period of the transition to motherhood. Over time, I find that continuous care work at home has declined, for which education plays a key role, while the chances of working continuously have not changed over time. Instead, I find an increasing trend of unsteady paths that combine paid work with either caretaking or unemployment. I discuss how these changes, as well as their association with education, have important implications for both gender and social inequality.     

Estimating rating transition probabilites with missing data

In this article we provide a rigorous treatment of one of the central statistical issues of credit risk management. GivenK-1 rating categories, the rating of a corporate bond over a certain horizon may either stay the same or change to one of the remainingK-2 categories; in addition, it is usually the case that the rating of some bonds is withdrawn during the time interval considered in the analysis. When estimating transition probabilities, we have thus to consider aK-th category, called withdrawal, which contains (partially) missing data. We show how maximum likelihood estimation can be performed in this setup; whereas in discrete time our solution gives rigorous support to a solution often used in applications, in continuous time the maximum likelihood estimator of the transition matrix computed by means of the EM algorithm represents a significant improvement over existing methods.     

Leaving Home Early: Passing from Girlhood to Womanhood

This paper presents a case study of a young woman’s narrative of leaving home and her transition to adulthood. The case study is part of a larger research project about young women with an experience of an early break-up from home, through running away or being thrown out. Empirical material underlying this paper consists of a qualitative study of 12 young women that have been interviewed. The aim of the study is to understand how events like running away/being thrown out of home influences their transition to adulthood. The particular narrative demonstrates how a young woman presents and accounts for such a dramatic event as running away or being thrown out from home, and how that is understood in relation to her adulthood. A further aim is to illustrate how social services efforts are reflected in her narrative.     

习近平治国理政的哲学方法论探略

党的十八大以来,以习近平同志为核心的党中央立足当代中国、把握世界大势,提出了一系列治国理政的新理念新思想新战略,有力推动中国特色社会主义进入新时代,形成了习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想。习近平总书记高度重视学习和掌握辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义,将其视为中国共产党人的“看家本领”。马克思主义哲学为习近平治国理政提供了总的方法论遵循。辩证唯物主义特别是其中的实事求是的实践观、事物联系发展的观点、具体问题具体分析的矛盾观提供了思维方法的总依据;历史唯物主义关于人民主体地位的思想和群众路线群众观点则贯穿于其治国理政全过程,彰显着中国共产党的价值自觉、理论自觉与实践自觉,奠定了习近平治国理政新理念新思想新战略的整个基石。     

习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想认同机制研究

促进人民群众对习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的认同,是当前重大理论和实践问题.而构建动力机制、健全引导机制、完善保障机制有利于强化对习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的认同.构建动力机制,需要以实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦激发认同的情感动力,以让人民群众有更多获得感、幸福感、安全感增强认同的利益动力,以理论的科学性增加认同的思想动力;健全引导机制,需要以理论研究为支撑,完善教育机制;以正确舆论为导向,强化宣传机制;以阵地建设为平台,健全导向机制;完善保障机制,需要壮大经济基础,突出利益认同;健全民主政治,增强政治认同;坚持文化自信,强化价值认同;夯实民生基础,巩固社会认同;推进绿色发展,提升生态认同.     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

高校思想政治理论课“三进”方式方法探析——以《马克思主义基本原理概论》为例

为了让习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想“进教材、进课堂、进头脑”，需要从方式、方法层面进行分析。在深耕教材的基础上，发现2018版《马克思主义基本原理概论》教材在融入习思想时，依据不同内容主要采取了文献参考式、引入说明式、说明原理式、补充创新式、替代更新式等方法。为有效做好教材体系向教学体系转换，针对教材中对习思想融入的不同方式，可以因内容分别或组合选择活动拓展法、课前一语法、习近平话语中心式教学法、问题式教学法、案例教学法等。在转化过程中，在方法论上必须坚持马克思主义辩证法，具体问题具体分析，做到转化有法但无定法；在转化的内容和方法的关系上，必须坚持内容和方法的有机统一，从习思想和教材整体视角审视转化，处理好整体与部分的关系；在思政课的价值引领方面，必须处理好真理与价值的关系，把转化最终落脚于价值转化，使习思想真正入脑、入心。     

论新时期电影中女性情欲的政治表述

在倡导生产伦理的主导政治的影响下，新时期电影中的女性情欲话语依然内含着某种变形后的政治动员机制，它们或以情欲展演完成政治神话的表述，或以情欲规划引导观众的利比多流向。然而，新时期电影所获得的半自律性生存空间，使得越轨的银幕女体情欲展演亦拥有其存活土壤，它们与主导政治文化之间既有共谋亦有背离。     

Closed-form likelihood estimation for one type of affine point processes

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a closed-form likelihood approximation for one type of affine point processes widely used in financial credit risk models. We proceed by first conjecturing the concrete series form of the transition density, verifying our postulation and then establishing the related coefficients by means of Kolmogorov equations. The asymptotic properties of the maximum-likelihood estimators (MLEs) are given in the end.