Empirical Non-Parametric Control Charts: Estimation Effects and Corrections

Owing to the extreme quantiles involved, standard control charts are very sensitive to the effects of parameter estimation and non-normality. More general parametric charts have been devised to deal with the latter complication and corrections have been derived to compensate for the estimation step, both under normal and parametric models. The resulting procedures offer a satisfactory solution over a broad range of underlying distributions. However, situations do occur where even such a large model is inadequate and nothing remains but to consider non- parametric charts. In principle, these form ideal solutions, but the problem is that huge sample sizes are required for the estimation step. Otherwise the resulting stochastic error is so large that the chart is very unstable, a disadvantage that seems to outweigh the advantage of avoiding the model error from the parametric case. Here we analyse under what conditions non-parametric charts actually become feasible alternatives for their parametric counterparts. In particular, corrected versions are suggested for which a possible change point is reached at sample sizes that are markedly less huge (but still larger than the customary range). These corrections serve to control the behaviour during in-control (markedly wrong outcomes of the estimates only occur sufficiently rarely). The price for this protection will clearly be some loss of detection power during out-of-control. A change point comes in view as soon as this loss can be made sufficiently small.     

Effects of Work Incentive Policies and Determinants of the Socioeconomic Status of Welfare Leavers in an Economically Disadvantaged Area

Abstract

This study explores how work incentive policies influence the socioeconomic status of welfare leavers. Logistic and ordinal regression methods were used to analyze 1999 statewide survey data on West Virginia WORKS leavers. This study found that people who had more months of eligibility remaining for TANF were more likely to have jobs than those with fewer months of eligibility. People who had been sanctioned for noncompliance with work requirementswere less likely to have jobs than those who had not been sanctioned. However, childcare assistance had a significant influence on the employment of welfare leavers. EITC was significantly associated with the expectation of high economic status. Policy implications are discussed.     

Age limits for participation in child protection court proceedings in Sweden

According to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and Swedish legislation, children have the right to participate in child protection proceedings. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the notion of age and maturity in child protection proceedings in order to elucidate how these aspects could influence children's rights to participate. We focus on the view of three groups of actors involved in child protection proceedings in Sweden—social workers, lawyers, and laypersons in social welfare boards and administrative courts—and on how children's age and maturity should be taken into consideration in decisions on their participation in court. The analysis is based on survey data. The study found that social workers, laypersons, and lawyers have different views on when children are old enough to have the right to litigate in court. Additionally, there is no consensus on how the maturity of the child can be assessed to inform the decision about participation. More discussion is needed about what competences a child needs to participate in court and to what extent this right should be limited by their age. Importantly, courts and decision‐making proceedings can be made more child friendly.     

犯罪记忆心理的可测性与局限性

中国的心理测试技术,是运用现代心理学、犯罪心理学和实验心理学原理以及神经心理学、生物电子学等研究成果,通过专用测试仪器软硬件和智能化计算机系统,同时同步记录人的多项心理生物反映指标,进而评判心理痕迹对应相关程度的实验心理技术。心理测试中心近20年犯罪心理测试的研究成果、以及经过直接参与办理全国各地600多起重特大疑难案件的实践、和经过对近万人实案测试图谱的评判分析研究,得出的结论是:违法犯罪人在经历过违法犯罪事件之后的记忆违法犯罪心理痕迹是可测的。这项技术在辅助刑侦工作方面有着很大的作用,但同样,我们也要看到它的局限性。     

理想与现实之间——宋人的井田梦以及均田、限田和正经界

以授受为特征的中国古代各种“田制”崩溃之后,代之而起的是“田制不立”的宋代社会。“不抑兼并”的国策使宋代土地矛盾十分严重,“井田制”成为挥之不去的梦。统治者和士大夫们寻求“渐均贫富”的良方,经历过均田、限田和正经界等各种尝试。朝廷(国家)与官僚地主阶层在经济上无法解决的利益冲突使企图缓和社会矛盾的种种努力终归失败。     

《清贫》唤醒的记忆——论《〈清贫〉颂》的审美价值及主旋律歌曲创作特色

<〈清贫〉颂>通过"歌诗"的状形功能,将抽象的思想情感寓于具象的景物之中,将中华民族精神与共产主义理想信念完美融合,构筑了"崇高美"的表现形态.在音韵与句式的安排及引用语典的修辞方面体现了歌词独特的美学价值.<〈清贫〉颂>在音乐形态上运用了"母曲衍生"的旋法及引申式的多段体结构,符合当代的民族审美取向.平民化的视角及广泛传唱的"接受效果"为主旋律歌曲创作提供了借鉴.     

论我国外资法与《TRIMs协议》的接轨

在我国即将成为WTO成员国之际,加强对<TRIMs协议>的深入研究,早已成为时不我待的课题.本文通过我国外资立法与<TRIMs协议>的比较,详尽阐明我国外资法中存在的与<TRIMs协议>不相符的TRIMs与国民待遇原则不相符的TRIMs及与一般取消数量限制原则不相符的TRIMs.并针对我国外资法中存在的上述TRIMs提出应因对策及时调整与完善我国外资立法及配套措施.     

基于疫情上报意愿的禽流感补偿标准研究

鼓励养殖户及时上报疫情是控制禽流感扩散蔓延、维护社会公众生命安全的重要举措。那么,如果要使养殖户自愿上报疫情,合理的补偿标准应该是多少？利用宁夏中卫沙坡区实地调查数据,采用Heckman两阶段模型分析养殖户上报疫情意愿及其意愿受偿强度的影响因素,进而测算养殖户在愿意上报疫情情景下可接受的补偿标准。散养户和规模养殖户可接受的补偿标准分别平均为22.41元/只、31.87元/只,对5个月龄蛋鸡的意愿受偿标准最高,分别达到35.21元/只、53.55元/只。提出建立疫情损失的联动补偿机制,提高疫情补偿标准,对散养户和规模养殖户实行差异化疫情补偿政策。     

违约责任及其损害赔偿范围研究

违约责任产生于合同债务的不履行,其本质是法律对违约行为的否定性评价,所保护的利益包括期待利益和信赖利益。随着大陆法系国家民法的发展,尤其是附随义务的产生,违约责任的保护范围呈不断扩张的趋势,违约损害赔偿范围也在不断扩大。这种发展趋势应在我国立法和司法实践中予以关注。      

Benchmark Dose Analysis via Nonparametric Regression Modeling

Estimation of benchmark doses (BMDs) in quantitative risk assessment traditionally is based upon parametric dose‐response modeling. It is a well‐known concern, however, that if the chosen parametric model is uncertain and/or misspecified, inaccurate and possibly unsafe low‐dose inferences can result. We describe a nonparametric approach for estimating BMDs with quantal‐response data based on an isotonic regression method, and also study use of corresponding, nonparametric, bootstrap‐based confidence limits for the BMD. We explore the confidence limits’ small‐sample properties via a simulation study, and illustrate the calculations with an example from cancer risk assessment. It is seen that this nonparametric approach can provide a useful alternative for BMD estimation when faced with the problem of parametric model uncertainty.