Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

从分歧到一致--中共高层领导解决西安事变意见透视

西安事变爆发后 ,中共中央高层怎样处理这件大事变 ,开始意见是不一致的 ,主要是审蒋、杀蒋与争取南京正统两种意见。随着事变的发展、演进 ,中共高层意见最终趋于一致 ,大家一致主张释蒋 ,这为第二次国共合作奠定了基础。中国共产党对西安事变独立作出各项决策是及时恰当的 ,从而实现了和平解决西安事变的目标 ,为全民族的团结抗战打开了通道。     

我国《合同法》应将损害赔偿规定为违约救济的首要方式

对于违约案件 ,法院在选择对受害人的救济方式时 ,应首先考虑损害赔偿 ,还是实际履行 ?西方国家多优先适用损害赔偿 ,因为市场主体的交易目的是赢利 ,而损害赔偿能以最快速度填补受害方的利益 ,且无需违约方配合 ,便于法院执行。但我国现行《合同法》却置实际履行于首位 ,损害赔偿于末位 ,这不符合事理、法理和国际惯例 ,应予修正。     

曹魏政权内两大政治集团的产生与竞争

汝颍集团和谯沛集团的产生绝非偶然,其与曹操用人政策紧密相联。前期他们共同辅佐曹操,开创基业,建立曹魏政权,后期两大派别矛盾加剧,党争愈演愈烈,最后导致魏晋禅代。     

唐代洛阳的水害

洛阳有伊、洛、、涧、谷等数条河流。唐代东都洛阳水灾频繁发生 ,共 35次之多 ,平均不足 1 0年一次 ,给洛阳城及沿岸造成严重破坏和损失。洛阳水灾发生多为五至八月份。唐代洛阳河流具有明显的季节性 ,雨季流量大 ,便于行舟 ,旱季水少河浅难以行船。针对频发的水灾 ,唐政府采取了一系列救助灾民的措施 ,同时还采取了加固堤坝、疏浚河道等防治措施     

论环境侵权中风险责任的确立

基于环境侵害具有潜伏性和不可逆转性的特点,以损害实际发生为归责前提的过错责任和无过错责任原则在环境侵权中的适用无法体现环境保护“预防为主”的思想。风险责任进入环境侵权归责体系则可以较好地解决这一问题,但风险责任的适用必须解决权利主体和义务主体的特定化问题、损害预防和经济发展的矛盾问题以及风险责任本身在侵权行为法中的立法体例问题。     

从人域契约到自然契约：生态损害赔偿法理要义之证成与功能拓展

生态损害赔偿作为我国环境保护领域最重要的救济性制度之一,其规范的目的、动机、价值、架构等诸构件决定着生境主体及其权利何以成立的基础性承载和充足性解释。生态损害赔偿制度从人域契约的“人域法”层面确立了“生境”的独特价值、独立的存在权和独立的法律人格;从自然契约的“人际法”层面打破了“人域法”理论的封闭体系,将伦理价值植入环境法律规则之中,摆脱了传统“人域法”对非政治化和非伦理化的唯理主义形式的追求和表达,复兴了中华法系“法律应当伦理化而非工具化”的灵魂与传统,确立了法益保护从“人域优先”向“人际优先”法律价值的转换,丰富了环境法理学的秩序观念和学理原则,拓展了传统人域法“主体中心主义”规则体系的界限与边界,为开启我国环境法从“主体模式保护”向“关系模式保护”生态法律观的变革与价值功能的转换提供了超越性的实践尝试与理论探索。     

Effects of critical incident tasks on the intercultural competence of English non-majors

ABSTRACT

In this internationalised world, graduate employability in terms of intercultural communication skills needs to be taken into account in higher education. The present study aims to explore the effects of critical incident task instruction on English non-majored undergraduates’ intercultural competence. One group of students received ten weeks of instruction with one critical incident task per week and another group received standard English classes. Data were collected from the students’ pre- and post-test. The results showed a significant and strong effect of the intervention with critical incident tasks. Implications for educational practice are presented for further teaching with critical incident tasks.     

Inverse gaussian accelerated test models based on cumulative damage

The failure of a system under environmental stress often can be described by an accelerated test model which incorporates the environmental variable L. Here, the failure of such a system at environmental level L is modeled as the first passage of accumulated damage to a critical threshold value. Assuming a discrete additive damage model leads to a Birnbaum–Saunders-type distribution for the failure time which can be closely approximated by an inverse Gaussian-type model. However, if a continuous damage model based on a Gaussian process is assumed, a more general family of inverse Gaussian accelerated test models is obtained. Three sets of failure data are discussed to illustrate the usefulness of this general family.     

Three Approaches to Understanding Self-Help Groups

With the increasing importance of self-help groups, professionals need to augment their understanding of how groups work in order to help clients make effective use of them. Three conceptual frameworks-social networks, social learning and cognitive theory-explain the basic psychosocial processes of self-help groups. Practice implications indicate how clients can benefit from self-help groups and suggest how professionals might enable their clients to realize the full benefits of participation in them.