Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

Latin American convergence and divergence towards the mortality profiles of developed countries

It is uncertain whether Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries are approaching a single mortality regime. Over the last three decades, LAC has experienced major public health interventions and the highest number of homicides in the world. However, these interventions and homicide rates are not evenly shared across countries. This study documents trends in life expectancy and lifespan variability for 20 LAC countries, 2000–14. By extending a previous method, we decompose differences in lifespan variability between LAC and a developed world benchmark into cause-specific effects. For both sexes, dispersion of amenable diseases through the age span makes the largest contribution to the gap between LAC and the benchmark. Additionally, for males, the concentration of homicides, accidents, and suicides in mid-life further impedes mortality convergence. Great disparity exists in the region: while some countries are rapidly approaching the developed regime, others remain far behind and suffer a clear disadvantage in population health.     

论我国刑事诉讼中“非法证据”的界定标准

在刑事非法证据排除规则的具体运用中,"非法证据"的界定是当然前提。非法证据并非是任一证据合法性要件欠缺的广义非法证据,而专指取证主体通过严重非法的手段或者侵犯公民基本权利的方式所获取的证据材料。我国刑事非法证据包括非法言词证据和非法实物证据两类,两类非法证据在实际判断中虽存在差异,但都应围绕取证手段的非法性展开,分别考察取证手段是否违反法律规定以及违法的严重程度,以准确界定刑事非法证据的范围。     

相互保险的风险识别及创新解决方案——基于TRIZ和TIF理论

相互保险是保险组织形态中非常重要的一种,但是由于信息不对称,相对于其他保险模式而言,同样存在着逆向选择和道德风险问题。传统的监管模式下,监管渗透不够,反制力不强,导致了相互保险无法彻底解决逆向选择和道德风险的治理困境。本文基于塔福域理论和TRIZ理论系统地分析了相互保险模式中存在的风险,并且提出了创新性的解决方案,即构建“保险域”。     

Trends in the Race and Ethnicity of Eminent Americans

During the last several decades, the ethnic and racial composition of the American elite has changed to include some ethnic minorities and women. This study examines changes in the composition of one segment of the American elite: those who have obtained eminence in their occupations. Lieberson and Carter's study of the ethnic composition of eminent Americans, using Who's Who in America, is replicated with data from the 1990s (Lieberson and Carter, 1979, American Sociological Review 44:347–366). In addition, comparisons between blacks listed in Who's Who in America and blacks listed only in Who's Who among Black Americans are made. During the 20 years since Lieberson and Carter's study, Jews have made remarkable gains in eminent membership, while the rate of black representation has increased only moderately. Women are a small percentage of the eminent regardless of ethnicity, although black women are better represented than their counterparts in white ethnic groups.     

Wage and Non-Wage Compensation Among Young Alcoholic and Heavy Drinking Women: A Preliminary Analysis

The association between drinking and selected job characteristics among women aged 24 to 31 is examined. Using the 1989 NLSY, women are classified as alcohol abusers or dependent based on DSM-III-R criteria or as heavy drinkers based on reported frequency of six or more drinks. Heavy drinking is negatively associated with wage and non-wage compensation. These effects diminish when human capital measures are controlled. Current alcoholism and current and past heavy drinking are strongly negatively associated with years of schooling. The association between alcoholism and job compensation and characteristics is not as strong as that seen for heavy drinking. It is not known if this is a consequence of errors in identifying alcoholic women in population-based surveys.     

关于精神损害赔偿制度若干问题的探讨

本文从我国精神损害赔偿制度现存的缺陷入手,通过国内外精神损害赔偿制度的简单对比,分析了我国此制度在主、客体范围和金额确定等方面存在的问题,并就此提出一些解决的办法.     

我国《合同法》应将损害赔偿规定为违约救济的首要方式

对于违约案件 ,法院在选择对受害人的救济方式时 ,应首先考虑损害赔偿 ,还是实际履行 ?西方国家多优先适用损害赔偿 ,因为市场主体的交易目的是赢利 ,而损害赔偿能以最快速度填补受害方的利益 ,且无需违约方配合 ,便于法院执行。但我国现行《合同法》却置实际履行于首位 ,损害赔偿于末位 ,这不符合事理、法理和国际惯例 ,应予修正。     

农地优化利用与农地产权制度创新

不合理的农地产权制度有碍农村土地的优化利用 ;合理的农地产权制度能够促进农村土地的优化利用。由于现行农地产权制度存在着诸多缺陷 ,因此 ,创新农地产权制度 ,重塑农地产权主体 ,以立法方式界定农地产权内容 ,加快农地产权的证券化进程 ,可以达到优化配置、高效利用农村土地的目的     

论现行大学生体质检测方法的科学性

本文通过回顾我国大学生体质检测标准的发展历程,对新颁布的大学生体质监测方法和标准的科学性进行技术分析,在此基础上,对新的体质检测方法的进一步深层次的应用进行探索。