英美国家的专家证据制度与我国专家证据制度的建立

专家证据是随着科技进步而广泛运用的证据形式。英美法系国家的专家证人制度将专家视为一种特殊证人较有特色。专家证人以鉴定结论或专家意见等多种形式向法庭提供证据 ,强调专家证人的公正性、独立性 ,通过交叉询问进行审查。而我国专家证据仅有鉴定结论一种形式 ,既不科学 ,又不能满足实际需要。借鉴英美国家的经验与教训 ,建立我国以鉴定结论为主、以专家证言为补充的专家证据制度势在必行     

社会主义精神富裕论

马克思主义经典作家的相关阐述 ,社会主义本质的实现和比较优势的获取 ,精神富裕和物质富裕特殊的关系均表明 ,精神富裕是建设社会主义的应有之义。而精神富裕的导向、认识、实践和凝聚作用 ,又反过来在促进社会主义事业快速、健康与持续发展中扮演着重要角色。同时 ,社会主义精神富裕还具有向度的特性 ,是一个动态开放的发展过程     

我国民事审级制度的改革与完善——比较法学视角下的分析

比较分析中国、日本、德国、美国、法国及我国台湾地区的民事审级制度可以看出我国审级制度中存在的弊端。实际上 ,实行有条件的三审终审制更具合理性。为此 ,我国原有的两审终审制必须加以改革 ,那就是实行以两审终审为原则、以三审终审为例外的民事审级制度。     

Fast retraction of evidence in a probabilistic expert system

We present and justify a propagation algorithm to facilitate the simultaneous calculation, for every node in a probabilistic exper system of the distribution of the associated random quantity, conditional on all the evidence obtained about the remaining nodes.     

基于规则的MCD磨粒信息诊断专家系统

研究了一种用于发动机磨损状态监测与故障诊断的MCD磨粒信息诊断专家系统 (ES)。首先讨论了诊断知识的获取与规则表示方法 ,接着根据面向对象模板化设计思想 ,研究了一种知识库、推理机和人机界面的一体化构造策略 ,并在此基础上引入深度优先搜索、反向引导正向控制的启发性推理机制     

论审理医疗纠纷案件对美国法庭“专家证人制度”的借鉴——由中美两个案例比较谈起

近阶段,医疗纠纷冲突凸显,大量的矛盾往往最终汇集到法院。而审理医疗纠纷案件时,法官面临诸多法律困境,尤其是科学证据的采纳问题。分析认为,借鉴美国"专家证人"制度,人民法院应设立"专家辅助人",可以较为有效地解决这些问题。     

Modeling External Risks in Project Management

To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract.     

Intuitive Toxicology: Expert and Lay Judgments of Chemical Risks

Human beings have always been intuitive toxicologists, relying on their senses of sight, taste, and smell to detect harmful or unsafe food, water, and air. As we have come to recognize that our senses are not adequate to assess the dangers inherent in exposure to a chemical substance, we have created the sciences of toxicology and risk assessment to perform this function. Yet despite this great effort to overcome the limitations of intuitive toxicology, it has become evident that even our best scientific methods still depend heavily on extrapolations and judgments in order to infer human health risks from animal data. Many observers have acknowledged the inherent subjectivity in the assessment of chemical risks and have indicated a need to examine the subjective or intuitive elements of expert and lay risk judgments. We have begun such an examination by surveying members of the Society of Toxicology and the lay public about basic toxicological concepts, assumptions, and interpretations. Our results demonstrate large differences between toxicologists and laypeople, as well as differences between toxicologists working in industry, academia, and government. In addition, we find that toxicologists are sharply divided in their opinions about the ability to predict a chemical's effect on human health on the basis of animal studies. We argue that these results place the problems of risk communication in a new light. Although the survey identifies misconceptions that experts should clarify for the public, it also suggests that controversies over chemical risks may be fueled as much by limitations of the science of risk assessment and disagreements among experts as by public misconceptions.     

Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems

A decade of research into the applications of artificial intelligence in statistics has finally resulted in the appearance of commercially available statistical expert systems. This paper takes a closer look at two of these systems, which are now commercially available on microcomputers, and shows what knowledge they actually contain and how they operate. It is concluded that although the technology and concepts that drive these systems could still benefit from further improvement, the real challenge lies in defining and constructing the statistical knowledge and strategy that should be incorporated and in presenting the results to the user's full advantage.     

环渤海经济圈城市群能级梯度分布结构与区域经济发展战略研究

根据增长极理论、梯度转移理论和城市功能理论,构建了城市能级综合评价指标体系,并运用主成分分析法和SPSS软件对环渤海地区内的各城市进行了城市能级的综合评价,在此基础上又采用系统聚类分析法得到了环渤海经济圈城市群的层级分布结构,最后根据研究结果和相关理论提出了环渤海地区区域经济非均衡发展的建议和策略.