Estimation with right‐censored observations under a semi‐Markov model

The semi‐Markov process often provides a better framework than the classical Markov process for the analysis of events with multiple states. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the presence of right censoring, when the right end‐point of the support of the censoring time is strictly less than the right end‐point of the support of the semi‐Markov kernel, the transition probability of the semi‐Markov process is nonidentifiable, and the estimators proposed in the literature are inconsistent in general. We derive the set of all attainable values for the transition probability based on the censored data, and we propose a nonparametric inference procedure for the transition probability using this set. Second, the conventional approach to constructing confidence bands is not applicable for the semi‐Markov kernel and the sojourn time distribution. We propose new perturbation resampling methods to construct these confidence bands. Different weights and transformations are explored in the construction. We use simulation to examine our proposals and illustrate them with hospitalization data from a recent cancer survivor study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 237–256; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

Do Drivers of Small Cars Take Less Risk in Everyday Driving?

Previously reported observed data on risky everyday driving are brought together and reanalyzed in order to focus on the relation between risky driving and the size of the car being driven, as indicated by car mass. The measures of risky driving include separation between vehicles in heavy freeway traffic and speed on a two lane road. Observed seat belt use provides a third measure of driver risk. Confounding effects arising from the observed association between car mass and driver age are taken into account by segmenting the data into three driver age groups. Driver risk taking is found to increase with increasing car mass for each of these three aspects of everyday driving. The implications of these results with respect to driver fatality rates are discussed in terms of a simple model relating observed risky driving to the likelihood of involvement in a severe crash.     

A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

中国古代爱国主义教育研究

探讨了爱国主义教育在中国古代是怎样形成和发展的,并更进一步总结出爱国主义教育的最初模式,为研究近代和今天爱国主义教育做了很好的铺垫。     

Small Parts Aspiration, Ingestion, and Choking in Small Children: Findings of the Small Parts Research Project

Obtaining information on current child injury trends and their associated issues is an important factor in developing products that meet or surpass acceptable toy safety boundaries. Understanding these boundaries helps determine safe product design characteristics that reduce the risk of product-related injury. Inchcape Testing Services developed a Small Parts Aspiration, Ingestion, and Choking Hazards Research Project, independent of an ongoing consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) project. The project's purpose was to determine, independent of CPSC, whether a more stringent small parts regulatory standard was necessary and, if so, to ensure that the standard was determined objectively. This article reports on the project's findings relating to critical characteristics (size, shape, and consistency) relative to the victim's age, of objects responsible for child choking injuries and fatalities.     

天命、道德和民意——从政治正当性看殷周政权转换

殷周政权转换之际天命伦理化,天命观念发生了从"有命在天"到"天命靡常"的转变,"敬德"思想取代了"敬神"思想,"保民"思想在西周初年兴起。这一时期的思想变革展现出了中国古代政权自我确证是道德的思想路径,即天命是善的,生成道德的政权,道德的政权敬德保民,消灭不道德的政权。这有别于西方政治寻求政权被他者证明是道德的思想路径。     

儒释道精神与中国人的宗教心理

以儒释道精神为背景的中国传统文化孕育了中国人独特的心理生活和行为方式;而儒教、道教、佛教作为宗教对中国普通民众的影响尤其体现为对其天命观、鬼神崇拜意识等宗教心理的塑造.在儒释道教化大背景下阐释中国人的宗教心理,对于认识中国传统文化是有意义的.     

神道之文如何通向审美之文

“”获得审美意义是一个历史过程。从最初的神之到天命之,再到天道之,的审美意义日益凸显。在神之中,虽然包含着一个人赋予以意义的事实,但人并无此自觉。在天命之中,这一人赋予以意义的过程已经很明显。与天命之间的象征关系,具有一种潜在的审美关系。随着天命之中对人的本质力量的否定性因素的弱化,这种潜在的审关意义逐渐显现出来。在天道之中,既是天道的客观显现,同时又是现道之人的主观发现,而这种天人合一的过程又是自我实现、自我肯定的过程,这时和美才对应起来,成为审美之。     

Cognitive Components of Risk Ratings

This study examined what lay people mean when they judge the "risk" of activities that involve the potential for accidental fatalities (e.g., hang gliding, living near a nuclear reactor). A sample of German and American students rated the "overall risk" of 14 such activities and provided 3 fatality estimates: the number of fatalities in an "average year," the individual yearly fatality probability (or odds), and the number of fatalities in a "disastrous accident." Subjects' fatality estimates were reasonably accurate and only moderately influenced by attitudes towards nuclear energy. Individual fatality probability correlated most highly with intuitive risk ratings. Disaster estimates correlated positively with risk ratings for those activities that had a low fatality probability and a relatively high disaster potential. Annual average fatality rates did not correlate with risk ratings at all. These findings were interpreted in terms of a two-dimensional cognitive structure. Subjective notions of risk were determined primarily by the personal chance of death; for some activities, "disaster potential" played a secondary role in shaping risk perception.     

对墨子批评孔子儒家的几点看法

儒墨对立,这是春秋之际思想史上的一件大事。墨子对孔子儒家的批评,主要表现在对"天"、"鬼"、"厚葬久丧"及"礼乐"方面。这些批判的中心内容,则是墨子的"兼爱"与孔子儒家有差等的"亲亲"之爱的矛盾,是维护以血缘宗法制度为目的的"礼乐",与舍弃这个"礼乐"的矛盾。其矛盾则是春秋时期礼坏乐崩,新旧思想冲突的必然结果。