Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

外语能力与科学研究的密切联系——周立伟院士访谈

近日对我国著名电子光学和光电子成像专家周立伟院士进行了访谈。访谈中，周院士首先分享了自己学习英语和俄语的经历，强调了自主学习能力的重要性；其次，周院士详细论述了外语教学，尤其是英语教学的必要性，指出英语能力与科学研究紧密相关，英语教学不可或缺；之后周院士分析了研究生在英语学习和科学研究方面存在的问题，并讨论了大学中开设人文课程的迫切性；最后，周院士对上理工师生提出了建议与期望。     

Decision‐making under uncertainty in child protection: Creating a just and learning culture

The argument is made for having a positive error culture in child protection to improve decision‐making and risk management. This requires organizations to accept that mistakes are likely and to treat them as opportunities for learning and improving. In contrast, in many organizations, a punitive reaction to errors leads to workers hiding them and developing a defensive approach to their practice with children and families. The safety management literature has shown how human error is generally not simply due to a “bad apple” but made more or less likely by the work context that helps or hinders good performance. Improving safety requires learning about the weaknesses in the organization that contribute to poor performance. To create a learning culture, people need to feel that when they talk about mistakes or weak practice, there will be a constructive response from their organization. One aspect of reducing the blame culture is to develop a shared understanding of how practice will be judged and how those appraising practice will avoid the hindsight bias. To facilitate a positive error culture, a set of risk principles are presented that offer a set of criteria by which practice should be appraised.     

The University: An Agent of Social Change?

Can universities be agents of progressive social change? How would we know if a university was acting as an agent of social change? Drawing on four case studies, I raise a number of questions to problematize our understanding of the university as an agent of social change. I outline a number of contributing factors that appear to explain successful cases. I conclude by arguing the relevancy of these cases for larger, and more traditional, sociological projects.     

Challenges to Connecting Sociology and Service Learning

Service-learning programs are not free from challenges brought about by lack of financial support, lack of widespread commitment from professors, community agencies, and recipients of service, and lack of knowledge and insight in students directly involved in such programs. While service-learning initiatives and programs serve positive functions for organizations and individuals, rhetorical accolades for service learning can distort or omit the realities of program implementation and sustained delivery. This paper specifically explores the following challenges connected to service-learning programs: (1) pedagogical difficulties; (2) student limitations; (3) time constraints; and (4) community cooperation.     

Linguists and other animals

Book reviewed in this article:
Joan Dunayer, Animal Equality: Language and Liberation     

试论佛山企业境外投资

企业境外投资应该成为佛山市发展外向型经济的战略任务之一。佛山市企业境外投资,具备着所有权、内部化和区位等方面的相对优势。境外投资是佛山市企业占领国外市场、扩大出口的有力手段;可享受国内外双重的优惠政策和待遇;是增加外汇收入、利用外资的新型方式。九十年代,佛山市企业应注重对东南亚国家的直接投资,对国外高科技,新产品、新服务部门和行业的直接投资。     

计算机与学术写作(英文)

深大外语系把若干计算机软件应用于英语专业本科学生的写作课教材系列。这不仅有助于学生自修写作技巧,且能为教师节省大量时间,使教师有可能对学生作更多的个别辅导。同时,学生在上写作课的过程中还能掌握一种使用计算机的实际技能。近十年来,中国的飞速发展是史无前例的。西方的技术发展史对中国虽然有启迪作用,但其实际要求与中国相去甚远。在这个意义上,深大的尝试对全中国均具有示范意义。     

关于高校办公室网络化管理的思考

随着科学技术和高等教育的发展,网络也广泛运用于高校办公室的管理工作,并在其中起着重要的作用。     

构建现代远程开放教育考试体系初探

现代远程开放教育是基于以学习者为中心的开放学习和个别化学习。我们应从素质教育的培养目标出发 ,依据现代考试测量理论 ,利用现代科技手段 ,建立现代远程开放教育考试体系 ,客观、准确地评价学习者的进步状况以及在学识、能力等方面达到的水平 ,使学习者在学习过程中不断自我完善 ,培养他们积极进取的精神