Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

People with disability and new disaster communications: access and the social media mash-up

This article explores how a lack of access to increasingly complex and overlapping digital communications platforms in times of disaster for people with disabilities has the potential to make already life-threatening situations considerably more dangerous. As we are increasingly coming to rely on a social media mash-up of digital platforms to assist in communications during disaster situations, the issue of accessibility for people with disabilities is as dire as if it was high ground during a tsunami or transport during a typhoon. The contemporary social media environment is characterised by a complex and overlapping network of complementary platforms, populated by user-generated content, where people communicate and exchange ideas. In this environment, YouTube videos are posted to Facebook and embedded in blogs, and Twitter is used to link to these other sites and is itself embedded in other platforms. These networks are increasingly supplementing and supplanting more traditional communication platforms, such as the television and radio, particularly in times of disaster. The concern of this paper is that the elements from which this mash-up of communications channels is made are not always accessible to people with disabilities. This evolving network of social media-based communication exposes the limits of existing Internet-based universal design.     

构建立足“3R”的矿难治理预防管理体系

对劳动力载体的保护是劳动和社会保障的指向之一。面对矿难对劳动者生存权的侵蚀,加强矿难治理的准备工作,就成了生命对社会的合理诉求。这其中对劳动者生存权的尊重,也是构建和谐社会的应有之义。     

论汉画中的妇女形象

汉代画像石 (砖 )有大量的表现汉代妇女生活的画像 ,主要有神话传说中的妇女形象、贵族妇女形象、劳动妇女形象、历史故事中的妇女形象、侍女形象、乐舞百戏中的艺伎形象六种类型 ,在不同程度上反映了汉代妇女在社会生活、生产中的地位。     

从“知识考古”到“美学解救”——论现代“人”的福柯式解构

笛卡尔以来，主体问题始终是现代哲学最为核心的问题。但是，从哲学的语言论转向开始，主体已经声名狼藉，主体哲学的范式被视为陈腐过时了，传统的主体之争已经没有意义，无论语言是第一位，或者自我意识的个体优先，这两个范式中的任何一个都凸现和遮蔽着什么，将这两者联系起来或者寻找一种介于这两种范式之间的思路倒是可能的，如米歇尔福柯之路。     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

日本都道府县防灾无线网的建设及借鉴

日本是世界上灾害管理通信系统建设领先的国家,相关经验对我国灾害管理通信系统的建设有着重要的借鉴意义。都道府县防灾无线网是日本灾害管理通信系统的重要组成部分,已具备了较为成熟的建设模式和应用经验。本文介绍了日本灾害管理通信系统的框架、都道府县防灾无线网的体系架构及其通信系统组成,选择了神奈川县、长野县和三重县作为典型案例,对这三个县的防灾无线网的建设和应用情况作了分析,并借鉴日本的经验,结合我国的实际,提出了五个方面的建设建议。     

论民事强制执行中的人权保障

对基本人权的保障是司法制度发展的必然要求,民事强制执行制度亦无例外。我国强制执行法律体现了人权保障理念,但仍显不足,强制执行法的发展,应从申请执行人、被执行人、案外人等各利益主体的基本权利保障角度出发,完善立法,改进执行措施,在对执行当事人和案外人基本人权保障的前提下,实现生效裁判的合法、及时执行。     

关于大都市灾害管理之研究——以日本大都市灾害管理为中心

本文以日本政府及东京等大城市灾害管理政策、行政体制及实例为对象,分析研究了大城市在自然灾害管理中所应注意的问题和经验教训,为大城市的灾害管理提供借鉴.     

筛选叶面喷施剂减轻旱涝灾害

本文提出使用叶面喷施剂的新概念,讨论了其作用和发展前景。观察了国内外10种药物对减轻旱涝灾害的效果,其中2种药物同田试验结果较日本名牌产品爱多收效果略好,2种药物较台湾健生素效果略好。2种属国内最新研制的新药。在与国内同类产品稀土、增产菌,903、多效唑、802、喷施宝、麻果素的同田对比中领先。