Estimation of the marginal expected shortfall under asymptotic independence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positively associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of the marginal expected shortfall, which is shown to be asymptotically normal. The finite sample performance of the estimator is investigated in a small simulation study. The method is also applied to estimate the expected amount of rainfall at a weather station given that there is a once every 100 years rainfall at another weather station nearby.     

一元整系数多项式一个结论的推广应用

将一元整系数多项式有理根的一个结论在多元多项式上进行了推广,从而得到多元多项式因式分解的一种方法。     

Measuring agreement between two statistics with applications to age standardization

Summary.  We detail a general method for measuring agreement between two statistics. An application is two ratios of directly standardized rates which differ only by the choice of the standard. If the statistics have a high value for the coefficient of agreement then the expected squared difference between the statistics is small relative to the variance of the average of the two statistics, and inferences vary little by changing statistics. The estimation of a coefficient of agreement between two statistics is not straightforward because there is only one pair of observed values, each statistic calculated from the data. We introduce estimators of the coefficient of agreement for two statistics and discuss their use, especially as applied to functions of standardized rates.     

ASSESSING CONGRUENCEAMONG DISTANCE MATRICES: SINGLE-MALT SCOTCH WHISKIES REVISITED

A test of congruence among distance matrices is described. It tests the hypothesis that several matrices, containing different types of variables about the same objects, are congruent with one another, so they can be used jointly in statistical analysis. Raw data tables are turned into similarity or distance matrices prior to testing; they can then be compared to data that naturally come in the form of distance matrices. The proposed test can be seen as a generalization of the Mantel test of matrix correspondence to any number of distance matrices. This paper shows that the new test has the correct rate of Type I error and good power. Power increases as the number of objects and the number of congruent data matrices increase; power is higher when the total number of matrices in the study is smaller. To illustrate the method, the proposed test is used to test the hypothesis that matrices representing different types of organoleptic variables (colour, nose, body, palate and finish) in single‐malt Scotch whiskies are congruent.     

Backfitting Random Varying-Coefficient Models with Time-Dependent Smoothing Covariates

Abstract.  In this paper, we propose a random varying-coefficient model for longitudinal data. This model is different from the standard varying-coefficient model in the sense that the time-varying coefficients are assumed to be subject-specific, and can be considered as realizations of stochastic processes. This modelling strategy allows us to employ powerful mixed-effects modelling techniques to efficiently incorporate the within-subject and between-subject variations in the estimators of time-varying coefficients. Thus, the subject-specific feature of longitudinal data is effectively considered in the proposed model. A backfitting algorithm is proposed to estimate the coefficient functions. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimation methods are more efficient in finite-sample performance compared with the standard local least squares method. An application to an AIDS clinical study is presented to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

两个随机变量的独立性和相关性之比较

从随机变量的独立性和相关性概念出发,运用反例和定理的形式详细探讨二者的区别和联系.     

将分段函数表示为初等函数的方法

本文给出了一种化具有多个分段点，且在各区间段上的表达式为多项式函数的分段函数为初等函数的具体方法．     

Geometric Method and Generalized Linear Models. Two Opposite Multiparametric Approaches Illustrated on a Sample of Pituitary Adenomas

We used two statistical methods to identify prognostic factors: a log-linear model (logistic and COX regression, based on the notions of linearity and multiplicative relative risk), and the CORICO method (ICOnography of CORrelations) based on the geometric significance of the correlation coefficient. We applied the methods to two different situations (a "case-control study' and a "historical cohort'). We show that the geometric exploratory tool is particularly suited to the analysis of small samples with a large number of variables. It could save time when setting up new study protocols. In this instance, the geometric approach highlighted, without preconceived ideas, the potential role of multihormonality in the course of pituitary adenoma and the unexpected influence of the date of tumour excision on the risk attached to haemorrhage.     

造假、治假的非合作博奕分析

简要介绍了我国假冒伪劣产品的现状及其带来的危害。应用非合作博奕理论，通过建立博奕模型，分析了假冒伪劣产品产生的根源和治理对策，并给出了对执法打假部门相应的奖励系数和对政府领导相应的罚款系数。     

我国产业间波及效应的探讨

从理论上来说,某一产业的变化会引起其它产业间的连锁反映。产业间的波及效应可以通过投入系数表来加以分析。通过实证分析,研究我国产业间波及效应的强弱,可以为国家制定产业政策、优化产业结构提供依据。