制度风险的法律维度: 突破非物质文化遗产保护的瓶颈

以风险理论审视非物质文化遗产的现行法律制度,根据风险产生根源不同,非物质文化遗产保护的制度风险会表现为制度运转失灵风险、制度功能偏差风险和公平性缺失风险。化解制度风险,形成制度风险的维度,不可基于同一个标准,而是需要在大的框架之下论及制度风险的法律管控,需要有针对性地创构"建立私权,善用公权"的多元法律控制体系,并在体系内引入技术规制,创设"非物质文化遗产权",推动民间习惯法与法律制度、公法与私法的互动式发展。     

Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Politics and Scientific Expertise: Scientists, Risk Perception, and Nuclear Waste Policy

To study the homogeneity and influences on scientists'perspectives of environmental risks, we have examined similarities and differences in risk perceptions, particularly regarding nuclear wastes, and policy preferences among 1011 scientists and engineers. We found significant differences ( p 0.05)in the patterns of beliefs among scientists from different fields of research. In contrast to physicists, chemists, and engineers, life scientists tend to: (a)perceive the greatest risks from nuclear energy and nuclear waste management; (b)perceive higher levels of overall environmental risk; (c)strongly oppose imposing risks on unconsenting individuals; and (d)prefer stronger requirements for environmental management. On some issues related to priorities among public problems and calls for government action, there are significant variations among life scientists or physical scientists. We also found that–independently of field of research–perceptions of risk and its correlates are significantly associated with the type of institution in which the scientist is employed. Scientists in universities or state and local governments tend to see the risks of nuclear energy and wastes as greater than scientists who work as business consultants, for federal organizations, or for private research laboratories. Significant differences also are found in priority given to environmental risks, the perceived proximity of environmental disaster, willingness to impose risks on an unconsenting population, and the necessity of accepting risks and sacrifices.     

Estimation of Hazard, Density and Survivor Functions for Randomly Censored Data

Maximum likelihood estimation and goodness-of-fit techniques are used within a competing risks framework to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of hazard, density, and survivor functions for randomly right-censored variables. Goodness-of- fit techniques are used to fit distributions to the crude lifetimes, which are used to obtain an estimate of the hazard function, which, in turn, is used to construct the survivor and density functions of the net lifetime of the variable of interest. If only one of the crude lifetimes can be adequately characterized by a parametric model, then semi-parametric estimates may be obtained using a maximum likelihood estimate of one crude lifetime and the empirical distribution function of the other. Simulation studies show that the survivor function estimates from crude lifetimes compare favourably with those given by the product-limit estimator when crude lifetimes are chosen correctly. Other advantages are discussed.     

网上购物风险来源、类型及其影响因素研究

从风险来源的角度深入地研究了网上购物感知风险类型与其相对强度,对于企业从风险来源上降低和管理网上风险具有重要的指导意义.文章发现消费者在网上购物时,风险主要来源于产品本身、远距离交易、互联网这种交易模式和网站这四个方面.研究结果揭示了,当消费者在网上购物的时候,所感受到最强烈的三个风险分别是,来自于产品本身的产品绩效风险、来自于远距离交易的服务风险和来自于网站的来源风险.最后,研究还发现,消费者网上购物感知风险的强弱与消费者的年龄、网络购物频率之间存在较强的相关性,年龄越大,感知风险越强;网上购物频率越高,感知风险越低.     

基于复杂适应系统的作战理论哲学反思

传统的作战理论与方法已经不能适应像现代信息化战争系统这类充满“活”的个体和变化因素的复杂系统，需要进行理论创新。而复杂适应系统理论是当代系统科学的一个新发展。有望成为创新作战理论的突破口。本文在分析比较作战系统的基础上，认为作战系统实质是复杂的适应系统，作战系统内的作战双方都力图以增强自身的适应性和复杂性，削弱对方的适应性和复杂性取得作战的胜利。     

大学研究院管理体制与运行机制创新研究

创新大学研究院管理体制和运行机制，对于推动大学知识和科技创新、加速科技成果产业化和社会化具有重要作用。为此，大学研究院在管理体制方面要实行理事会领导下的院长负责制和虚实结合的矩阵式组织模式。在运行机制方面应建立稳定有力的政策支持体系和科学民主的战略决策制度，建立以团队合作为主的科研队伍体系，建立以竞争为核心的人员聘用体系，建立科学的业绩考评和高效的人才激励制度，建立长效完备的投资渠道，建立积极有效的成果转化机制。     

Deconvolution with supersmooth distributions

Nonparametric deconvolution problems require one to recover an unknown density when the data are contaminated with errors. Optimal global rates of convergence are found under the weighted L_p-loss (1 ≤ p ≤ ∞). It appears that the optimal rates of convergence are extremely low for supersmooth error distributions. To resolve this difficulty, we examine how high the noise level can be for deconvolution to be feasible, and for the deconvolution estimate to be as good as the ordinary density estimate. It is shown that if the noise level is not too high, nonparametric Gaussian deconvolution can still be practical. Several simulation studies are also presented.     

协同运输管理运行机制研究

协同运输管理是在CPFR基础上发展起来的一种供应链管理方法。它通过降低供应链中的运输成本、缩短商品交付时间和提高准时交货率,实现供应链价值的最大化。协同运输管理的有效实施,需要建立完善的运行机制,包括动力机制、约束机制、实际行为和惩罚机制,并配备相应的软硬件条件。     

找准自己的位置——对地方院校办学定位和发展战略的思考

构建学习型社会,实现高等教育大众化,地方院校的作用不可忽视,关键是要明确办学定位和发展方向。要不断完善功能,创新办学模式,扬长避短,特色发展;坚持以服务为宗旨,发挥本土优势,多层次宽领域办学,全方位多样化发展;以市场和就业为导向,调整专业结构,以就业带动招生,促进学校可持续发展;充分利用外部资源,加强校校合作,与企业和用人单位建立战略伙伴关系,借势发展;走内涵发展为主的路子,不断深化改革,增强办学活力,实质发展。