中国货币政策和财政政策相对有效性的实证研究

在我国由计划经济向市场经济的体制转轨过程中,货币政策和财政政策已成为我国宏观经济调节的主要手段,在我国的经济发展中发挥了重要作用。但货币政策和财政政策是各自独立的政策体系,由于作用的方式和条件有较大区别,其效果也有较大不同,文章试图应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对改革开放以来我国货币政策和财政政策的效果进行实证比较研究,并得出有关结论,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论分析和实证检验的依据。     

财政赤字货币化过程中铸币税收益问题分析

铸币税即政府发行货币所取得的收入 ,一般可理解为货币发行成本和货币面值间的差额。在通货膨胀情况下 ,货币的实际购买力下降 ,政府的实际铸币税收入小于其名义铸币税收入。铸币税问题的讨论一般是同财政赤字货币化问题相联系的。我国当前的积极财政政策是以增发国债为核心 ,财政赤字经常化。政府可以从财政赤字货币化中得到多少铸币税收入受制于三个因素 :经济增长对基础货币的需求 ,经济的实际增长率 ,以及货币需求对通货膨胀和收入的弹性     

财政幻觉假说的实证检验

财政幻觉假说是公共选择理论下解释政府规模增长的理论之一。依据财政幻觉假说的经验方程，将“财政幻觉”分解为“赤字幻觉”与“预期幻觉”，以中国1978～2004年的年度数据，采用邹氏转折点检验、协整分析和误差修正模型，对“财政幻觉”与政府规模增长的关系进行实证检验。结果表明，“财政幻觉”是中国政府规模增长的原因之一，其中“赤字幻觉”的存在未得到显著证实，但“预期幻觉”对政府规模有正的显著影响。     

知识缺失还是知识自负？知识水平对公众食品安全信心的影响研究

通过对中国10个城市成年受访者的调查,发现公众对当前食品安全问题的感知风险水平较高,反映其对食品安全形势较担忧,且对政府食品安全管理部门存在信任危机。不过公众的感知控制力较高,普遍认为自己有保障自身食品安全的能力,因此在日常的食品消费中仍然有较高的信心。研究证实中国公众在食品安全的知识层面存在着知识自负现象,公众自我评估的主观知识水平显著高于实际拥有的客观知识水平,且真正对公众食品安全信心产生影响的是公众的主观知识水平。这说明传统缺失模型所倡导的以科普、辟谣为主要形式的致力于教育公众、提升公众客观知识水平的行动能够取得的效果可能非常有限;而公众的主观知识水平和感知控制力的提升能有效提振公众的食品安全信心。     

Are VAT reforms an effective tool for promoting culture? A quasi-experiment in Spain

Sponsoring culture is a long-term profit-generating investment that public policy makers can achieve by means of Pigouvian subsidy or tax schemes. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the three VAT reforms implemented between 2012 and 2018 (one tax raise reform and two tax cut reforms) in the cultural sector in Spain. We first provide visual evidence and empirical estimates of the tax shifting and the distribution of the VAT burden between consumers and producers. We then use a regression discontinuity design to assess the causal effects of these VAT reforms on performing acts and cinema consumption (both in the extensive and the intensive margin). Several interesting findings arise from our results. First, we find that producers only passed through 45% of the VAT cut to consumer prices. Second, the effect of the 2017 VAT reduction on performing arts slightly increased the number of households consuming these cultural services, whereas the 2018 tax cut on cinema had no significant effect in the number of moviegoers (extensive margin). Third, the cultural spending per household conditional on participation (intensive margin) increased after the two VAT rate reductions. Finally, we test for asymmetries in pass-through with respect to the 2012 tax raise and we find (i) no evidence of prices responding more strongly to increases than to decreases in VAT, (ii) a symmetric response of the number of households consuming these cultural services, and (iii) an asymmetric response of the average cultural spending conditional on participation.     

Deficit sustainability,and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000

In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850–2000, emphasizing the role played by monetary and fiscal dominance in order to get fiscal solvency. Since the condition of fiscal solvency was satisfied, government deficit would have been sustainable along the sample period. In addition, the whole period can be characterized as one of fiscal dominance.     

Optimal control strategies for dividend payments and capital injections in compound Markov binomial risk model with penalties for deficits

We consider the compound Markov binomial risk model. The company controls the amount of dividends paid to the shareholders as well as the capital injections in order to maximize the cumulative expected discounted dividends minus the discounted capital injections and the discounted penalties for deficits prior to ruin. We show that the optimal value function is the unique solution of an HJB equation, and the optimal control strategy is a two-barriers strategy given the current state of the Markov chain. We obtain some properties of the optimal strategy and the optimal condition for ruining the company. We offer a high-efficiency algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy and the optimal value function. In addition, we also discuss the optimal control problem under a restriction of bounded dividend rates. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the algorithm and the impact of the penalties.     

欧洲债务危机的主要成因分析

肇始于希腊的欧洲债务危机到目前为止都没有停息的迹象,甚至还呈蔓延之势。欧洲债务危机爆发的直接原因是在金融危机的背景下,政府支出规模持续扩大,导致财政赤字居高不下,最终使得国债规模超过政府的偿还能力,出现明显的违约可能性。同时,国际竞争力不足,导致出口受阻,使得资金问题更加严重。从更深层次看,产业结构不合理,经济发展速度缓慢,过低的投资率和储蓄率及过高的储蓄投资转化率,都是导致欧债危机的重要原因。     

Exploring Neglected Dimensions of Social Policy: The SDW, Fiscal Welfare and the Exemplar of Local Taxation in England

Titmuss's Social Division of Welfare (SDW) thesis is a vitally important but much neglected element of social policy analysis. This article seeks to explore the SDW, with a particular focus on fiscal welfare. Fiscal welfare has been described as forming a hidden welfare state, and while taxation is one of the main ways in which governments affect the lives of citizens, studies of welfare pay remarkably little attention to its impact. Fiscal welfare is examined by using, as an exemplar, local taxation in England, a subject that itself is neglected within social policy. Local taxation in England is of interest because it illustrates the impact of a system of taxation on different groups of citizens, and how this can operate to the benefit of rich over poor citizens. This is because the current system is highly regressive, meaning that those on low and middle incomes spend proportionately more of their income paying the tax than do those on high incomes. What is of further interest is how within the debate about reform of local taxation, concern with regressivity becomes obscured and ceases to be the focus of attention. We are thus provided with an example of how fiscal welfare remains a hidden issue. The article concludes by arguing that social policy analysis needs to move beyond the narrow confines of social welfare and develop a broader understanding of welfare, based on the SDW.     

财政分权和环境规制促进了中国绿色技术创新吗？

基于我国2003-2017年省级面板数据测算财政分权水平和财政分权效率,结合两阶段关联网络DEA测算绿色创新效率、绿色技术研发效率、绿色技术成果转化效率。结合理论模型与实证模型,分析了财政分权、环境规制对我国绿色技术创新的影响。结果表明：从整体上看,财政分权水平、财政分权效率和环境规制都是推动我国绿色创新发展的积极因素,财政分权还通过影响环境规制对绿色技术创新产生积极间接影响;但也导致了地方政府不注重绿色研发的短视行为。从不同时段看,财政分权和环境规制对绿色创新影响发生了变化,一是国际金融危机以后,财政分权加大了经济刺激政策对绿色创新发展的挤出效应,但这在新时代以后得到缓解;二是2013年以后地方环境规制水平提升过快,在一定程度上反而不利于绿色创新。从发展处于不同分位的地区看,财政分权对高、低分位地区绿色创新发展支持都稍显不足,但提高财政分权效率则能显著带动高分位地区发展;环境规制只在高分位地区促进了绿色创新发展,但对绿色创新效率较低的地区而言,过高的环境规制并没有实际意义。