电价波动的产业结构效应——基于CGE模型的分析

为探索电价波动与产业结构变化的关系,本文主要应用CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型对中国的电价波动与产业结构变化进行了实证研究。结果表明,各行业产出对电价的交叉弹性系数虽然很小,但耗电越多的行业对电价变化的反映越敏感。因此,本文认为,出于抑制高耗能产业膨胀、促进能效提高的目的,可以适当提高电价,但不能对电价的产业结构效应期望过高。同时应采取适当的电价调整方式,以避免电价波动的其他负面影响,促进电力合理利用和经济社会的可持续发展。     

Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia

This paper develops a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and uses the recently developed technique of ‘generalized’ impulse response analysis to test the empirical relationships in the Colombian economy between coffee revenues and a set of macro variables. We find that coffee price (revenue) shocks have exerted an important influence on money growth, inflation, and real exchange rates, and the direction of these effects are in line with some of the predictions of traditional Dutch Disease type models. The major difference between our results and the results of Dutch Disease type models arise in the effects of coffee booms on real output. We find that in the time horizon of 5 years after the boom, real output has increased in response to the effects of the coffee boom. The finding that coffee booms can result in positive long-run output effects is an important finding since it contradicts the traditional conclusion of Dutch Disease type models which envision an adverse long-run effect on output. We also find that the long-run effect of coffee booms is to reduce both current account and government deficits. These results illustrate strikingly that the term “Dutch Disease” is an unfortunately pejorative term that obscures the fact that coffee booms need not be viewed as a “disease” but as an extraordinary opportunity to strengthen internal and external balances.     

访谈的IRF结构研究

访谈的话步把持特征为：I话步和F话步主要由采访者把持,R话步主要由受访者把持,且R话步从属于I话步.访谈的信息传达特征为：信息传达主要由受访者执行;IRF模式是访谈最主要的话回模式.访谈是一种以向第三方受众提供或传达特定信息为目的、话回模式较为简单、单方控制力很强的会话形式.     

外语课堂上的互动：模式与策略

一般认为,外语课堂上的互动即由教师依循教学法的基本原则,引导和激发学生参与交际,而学生积极响应,教师再根据学生的反馈做出各种回应,交际双方在不断地回应已知信息,修正误差,并在不断添加新信息的过程中推进课堂交际活动。这是IRF互动模式,是主要的互动模式,往往被看做唯一的模式。文章尝试超越这种互动的一般模式,探讨更多的互动模式,并寻找更切合中国外语课堂需要的互动模式和策略。     

英语课堂话语对二语习得影响的若干因素

采用录音的方式,以课堂实录转写成的文字材料为语料,对其课堂会话结构、师生分别引发的话轮替换数量和比例以及师生各自的话语量进行统计分析。分析结果表明：会话结构较为复杂,但IRF结构仍然存在;教师仍控制话轮替换权,教师的话轮偏长,学生话轮较短;多数情况下,教师话语量多于学生话语量。基于此分析,探讨课堂交互的特点对学生语言习得的影响。     

货币政策与城乡居民消费：攀比效应渠道

本文基于封闭条件下一般均衡分析框架,从理论与实证两个角度分析了攀比效应条件下货币政策对居民消费的影响。通过理论模型研究发现,假定存在消费的外部性,如果居民过度攀比,货币政策的福利效应取决于消费的外部性与垄断扭曲的相对力量。为检验这一结论在我国这样一个大国内部是否适用,本文利用VAR模型和IRF进行检验,并证实我国货币政策对城乡居民消费产生了差异性影响,货币政策对农村居民消费产生的累积效应呈放大趋势,对城镇居民消费产生的累积效应在长期中则趋于稳定。最后本文提出我国实施积极的货币政策对城乡居民消费进行干预的建议。     

Wagner’s law vs. Keynes’ hypothesis in very different countries (Armenia and Spain)

There is considerable controversy in the economic literature concerning whether particular government expenditures have an impact on economic growth. This study analyzes the macroeconomic magnitude of government expenditures in Armenia and Spain and evaluates whether there exists a causal relationship between government expenditures and economic growth, and vice versa (Keynes’ hypothesis and Wagner’s law). The study employs the VAR methodology to analyze annual data for the years 1996–2014. By utilizing Granger causality tests, the study reveals whether the government expenditures are a significant factor in economic growth in short-term perspective. Finally, IRF and FEVD tests are applied to estimate the effects of a change in particular government expenditures on GDP for twelve year time horizon. This study validates the hypothesis that, irrespective of size and nature of the economy (Armenia vs. Spain), some public expenditures (e.g. healthcare) positively contribute to the growth of the economy, while social protection in both countries is negatively related to GDP.     

宏观主要经济变量对物价影响的动态分析

针对当前我国经济运行中物价水平变动的影响因素及其存在的问题,通过引入脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,向量自回归模型可以从客观上分析宏观主要经济变量对物价的动态冲击和影响。实证结果表明,经济变量对物价的影响各异且存在着一定的时滞效应。因而,有关部门在不同时期宜采取相应不同的调控措施,以维持物价的稳定和经济的持续发展。