Automobile prices and protection: The U.S.-Japan trade restraint

We examine the effects of the U.S.-Japan trade restraint on automobile prices and quality upgrading, for both Japanese imports and American small cars. From April 1981 to April 1984 the suggested retail price of all Japanese models increased by 15.8 percent, or 5.3 percent per year. We find that nearly the entire amount of this rise can be explained by the upgrading of individual models. This upgrading may benefit consumers who would purchase a luxury import in any case, but harms those who desire the basic imports. In addition to upgrading, we conclude that a second cost of the trade restraint has been to prevent the yen depreciation from being passed onto American consumers, in terms of lower imported auto prices. For U.S. small cars we find a 9.1 percent rise in the suggested retail price, or 3 percent per year, with a fraction of this amount due to model upgrading. If the yen depreciation had led to lower import prices without the trade restraint, then we expect that U.S. auto prices would have been lower, too.     

The effects of psychiatric symptoms on quality of life assessments among the chronic mentally ill

This study of chronically mentally disabled persons in community residences examined the discriminant validity of subjective quality of life indicators and self-report mental health indices to determine the potential confounding effects of psychopathology on the assessment of quality of life (QOL). Factor analyses and difference-score reliabilities identified a general QOL construct and a general mental health construct with 27% common variance. However, psychiatric symptoms did not significantly (p less than .05) alter the bivariate and multivariate relationships among the QOL ratings, except in the health domain in which the correlations of health-related QOL indicators with global QOL were significantly (p less than .05) attenuated after removing the effects of psychopathology. The results suggest that psychopathology does not introduce bias into the overall structure of QOL data, but they also indicate the importance of controlling for mental health effects in the assessment of patients' self-rated health and satisfaction with health care.     

Using macro variables in program evaluation

This paper discusses the importance of using macro-level variables for program analysis. It is argued that three types of macro variables--cultural, economic, and demographic--provide a context for evaluation, and offer alternative explanations for the success or failure of a program. The problems of causality and availability of data are discussed. Macro variables are seen to be especially useful in "meta evaluation," and in integrating the results of specific program evaluations into general conclusions.     

Evaluating the impact of utility company billing plans on residential energy consumption

Many utility companies offer their customers the choice of participation in an average payment plan, which enables them to pay a fixed sum for their utility bill each month (with final settlement at the end of the billing year), instead of the conventional “pay as you go” billing procedure. Because customers on average payment plans are protected from paying large bills during peak energy-use seasons and because the information about monthly energy use and its cost is perhaps less salient to them, it was hypothesized that customers on the average payment plan would use more electricity than customers not on the plan. Using a nonequivalent control group design, the electricity consumption of a selection of customers of two utility companies (Ns = 475 and 74) was examined. The results showed that there was no evidence to support the hypothesis. Since the logic of hypothesis testing does not permit the ready acceptance of the null hypothesis, several procedural, methodological, and statistical points were made to buttress the conclusion that the average payment plans had no effect on electricity consumption.     

Durkheim and pierce on suicide and economic change

This paper is an attempt to build upon Pierce's important finding, a confirmation of Durkheim, that any form of economic disruption or change increases suicide. In this paper, certain aspects of Pierce's method are criticized. The analysis of an expanded and updated data set, using analytic techniques designed for time-series data, suggests that economic disruption per se is not as relevant to the suicide rate as are economic hardship and economic deterioration or improvement.     

Relation contents in multiple networks

Distinctions among kinds of relations (friendship, advice, intimacy, and so on) are typically ad hoc in empirical research. These ad hoc distinctions among relation contents can be expected to increase the likelihood of equivocal research conclusions. We develop three ideas indicating how standard, well-known, network models of relationship form can be used to clarify relationship content. (a) We begin with an idea for recovering the semantic context in which a relation content occurs. This context is cast as a network of tendencies for contents to be confused for one another and the form of this network—dissected with network models of relation form—holds insights into the ways in which relation contents are understood in a study population. (b) The network concept of structural equivalence is used to define content domains composed of specific relation contents that are substitutable for one another in described relationships. (c) The network concept of network prominence is used to define the ambiguity of contents in described relationships. The proposed perspective is analogous to a linguistic componential analysis of relation content.     

Political assessment by international firms: Models or methodologies?

Political risk is defined in terms of managerial contingencies arising from political events and processes. A number of “first-generation” assessment methodologies are reviewed and compared in terms of their degree of structure (explicit model of process) and systemization (formalization of methodology). The paper concludes that, at this point, effective political assessment is more likely to result from explicit specification of causal relationships and implementation of systematic analytical procedures than from development of increased methodological sophistication or elegance.     

Poverty, inequality, and development: A distributional approach

Economists have concentrated on aggregate economic growth to measure countries' development progress and in recent years have also considered income distribution performance. This paper reverses the conventional emphasis by placing income distribution at the forefront. I examine what is known about the distributions of income and poverty in the developing countries of the world and probe the correlations between poverty, inequality, and development. I explore the main sources of inequality and the extent to which individual countries have managed to alleviate poverty and reduce inequality in the course of economic growth. Employing evidence from case studies of six developing nations. I suggest some explanations for differing patterns of development and call for development planning founded on a firm commitment to helping the poor.     

To be or not to be: Control and balancing of type I and type II errors

The various costs of Type I and Type II errors of inference from data are discussed. Unfortunately, other things equal, Types I and II errors are inversely related. Six methods of minimizing Type I error in studies are presented, each of which may be employed even after data are collected. Type II errors may also be minimized by a combination of study design and analytic means. Although some of these techniques must be built into the study others can be undertaken when beginning work on a data set. Only one of these techniques will increase Type I error, and those involving data reduction may decrease both types of error.