A constitutional theory of the family

The paper re-examines the idea that a family can be viewed as a community governed by a self-enforcing constitution, and extends existing results in two directions. First, it identifies the circumstances in which a constitution is renegotiation-proof. Second, it introduces parental altruism. The behavioural and policy implications are illustrated by showing the effects of public pensions and credit rationing. These implications are not much affected by whether altruism is assumed or not, but contrast sharply with those of more conventional models.

独生子女规模估算及其对政府奖励性支出的影响——以苏州市为例

本文将抽样调查资料与人口普查资料相结合,利用多种统计方法、多方案推算苏州市独生子女存量规模以及未来各年数量,并据此测算了未来各年政府可能的配套奖励性支出。研究结果表明：独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄将势必引起政策生育率的上升,未来各年政府用于独生子女家庭及其父母养老等计划生育政策奖励性支出将逐年增加．财政负担日益加重。建议政府对计划生育配套奖励政策适时进行调整,由现行的提供物质奖励向提供优质服务和社会保障转变。     

人口老龄化背景下的推迟退休年龄策略研究

在人口老龄化进程加快的情况下,为改善我国城镇养老金收支均衡状况,有必要对养老金替代率、退休年龄等进行参数改革。利用"五普"数据,对未来50年我国城镇人口老龄化状况进行预测;考察人口老龄化对城镇社会统筹养老金收支均衡的影响;设计推迟退休年龄的几种方案,进行了静态比较分析,并给出了相应的政策建议。     

The Changing Conception of Pension Rights in Canada, Mexico and the United States

Relying on four conceptualizations of the welfare state (universalism, redistribution, state capacity, and intergenerational equity), this article presents an overview of recent pension reforms in Canada, Mexico and the United States. Each country has introduced important reforms in the past 25 years and is currently engaged in debates to make other adjustments. The state is reducing its financial and programmatic commitment towards current and future retirees and is promulgating reforms tightening the link between contributions and benefits. In Canada, the government raised contribution rates substantially to maintain the same level of benefits while it sought to alter its universal flat-rate benefit. In the USA, changes to Social Security have resulted in a higher retirement age and lower replacement rates. In the case of Mexico, the most important public schemes have actually been privatized.     

Public/Private Pension Mix,Income Inequality and Poverty among the Elderly in Europe: An Empirical Analysis Using New and Revised OECD Data

Prior studies have suggested that higher public pensions are associated with lower income inequality among the elderly, whereas the reverse is true for private pensions. Van Vliet et al. ( 2012 ) empirically test whether relative shifts from public to private pension schemes entail higher levels of income inequality among the elderly using panel data from the OECD SOCX and the EU‐SILC databases. Contrasting earlier empirical studies using either cross‐sectional or time‐series data, they do not find evidence that shifts from public to private pension provision are associated with higher levels of income inequality or poverty among the elderly. The aim of the current article is to extend the analysis of Van Vliet et al. by: (1) adding additional countries; (2) adding additionally available years; and (3) using revised OECD SOCX data. In contrast to Van Vliet et al., we find that a greater relative importance of private pensions is associated with higher levels of income inequality and poverty among the elderly. A central explanation of the difference in conclusions stems from the revision of OECD SOCX data.     

Three Routes to Pension Reform: Politics and Institutions in Reforming Pensions in Denmark,Finland and Sweden

By analysing pension reforms in three Nordic countries – Denmark, Finland and Sweden – that apply different institutional solutions in their old‐age security programmes, this article argues that the political processes that shaped the country‐specific pension set‐ups in the 1950s and 1960s had important ramifications for subsequent reform possibilities. A high degree of inertia exists not only in the institutions themselves but also in the political reform options and the ways in which pensions were reformed. The analysis shows that the ‘new politics’ was not new in any of the three countries. Furthermore, given the differences in the three cases, the analysis questions the nature of pension reform. The Swedish reform in the late 1990s was a ‘big bang’ that eliminated the old and changed everything; the Finns built on piecemeal reforms of conversion that gradually changed the whole system; and, while the Danish story appears to be one of stability and status quo, the drift of Danish policy ultimately changed the basic characteristics of the system. Although all three countries have more or less thoroughly reformed their pensions, the reform processes have differed according to both historical legacies and institutional frameworks.     

Pension contributions as a commitment device: Evidence of sophistication among time-inconsistent households

Sophisticated agents who are aware of their self-control problems value commitment devices that constrain future choices. Using Australian household data I test whether these households value commitment devices in the form of illiquid pension contributions. Estimating probabilistic choice models, the results confirm the conjecture that households with problems of self-control are more likely to invest in illiquid pensions while less likely to hold very liquid forms of assets.     

Women and Pensions: Time for a Rethink

This paper presents the results of a research project conducted in Northern Ireland, which focused on women and pensions. The paper suggests that, in the broader rethink of pensions policy in the UK, which is now clearly needed, central consideration should be given to constructing policies which more clearly relate to the needs and circumstances of women.     

A Disaster Foretold? The Case of the Personal Pension

With the creation of the State Earnings Related Pension Scheme (SERPS) in 1975, pensions policy in the UK was characterized by a consensus between the Labour and Conservative parties. By the mid 1980s, under the influence of New Right ideas, the Conservatives had broken with this consensus. Conservative pensions policy now centred on the ideological objectives of promoting individual property ownership and pension provision “independent”of the State. Such objectives were central to the creation of personal pensions under the 1986 Social Security Act. This article examines the political background to the emergence of this policy and seeks to evaluate how far the stated aims have been achieved. It does this by analysing the current controversy over methods of selling personal pensions and by looking at statistical evidence on the incomes of individuals who have taken out personal pensions. The argument concludes that personal pensions have been, predominantly, taken out by groups with low incomes, and the combination of low contributions and transaction costs threatens to lead to inadequate pension provision; such problems are likely to be particularly marked for women. In turn this conclusion, when set in the context of the tax regime applying to personal pensions, raises further doubts over the extent to which “independent”pension provision is likely to be achieved.     

Social Policy in a Fast-growing Economy: The Case of Chile

Chile has adopted a package of free-market, neo-liberal social policies. This follows a pattern established by the country's largely successful economic policies. Neo-liberal social policy consists of a series of two-tier systems, which are not in contradiction with the economic model. On the contrary, a key function of the social policies is to supplement a dynamic style of capitalist economic development through a number of mechanisms. These include: improving the skills, education and health standards of the labour force; increasing savings in a privately-run pension system; reducing labour costs to firms; and providing a safety net to those whom the "trickle down" does not reach. The paper examines social policy in three sectors: pensions, health and education. It explores historical roots, present characteristics, and the degree of success or othewise of policy in these sectors. The discussion refers to the role played by the legacy of the Pinochet military dictatorship (1973–90), the interface between public and private spheres, the whole question of social policy in the context of fast economic growth under free-market conditions (and the possible presence of causality links), the changing balance of power between suppliers and users of social sector services in favour of the latter, the threat of market failure, and questions such as whether these policies have been successful and whether (or why) Chileans are prepared to accept this unequal two-tier system.