Nonparametric estimation of the shape function in a Gamma process for degradation data

The author considers estimation under a Gamma process model for degradation data. The setting for degradation data is one in which n independent units, each with a Gamma process with a common shape function and scale parameter, are observed at several possibly different times. Covariates can be incorporated into the model by taking the scale parameter as a function of the covariates. The author proposes using the maximum pseudo‐likelihood method to estimate the unknown parameters. The method requires usage of the Pool Adjacent Violators Algorithm. Asymptotic properties, including consistency, convergence rate and asymptotic distribution, are established. Simulation studies are conducted to validate the method and its application is illustrated by using bridge beams data and carbon‐film resistors data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 102‐118; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Putting the Children Act Independent Person Procedure under the Spotlight

The Children Act 1989 required local authorities to appoint independent people to participate in their complaints procedures. The Department of Health has concentrated largely on monitoring these newly established procedures. In contrast, very little guidance has been given about the role of independent people. Nor has there been much published research in this area. This paper is based on a study of the response of two neighbouring local authorities. The aims were to discover how these authorities had interpreted the imprecise guidance from the Department of Health, and thereby to analyse the application of principles of independence within complaints procedures. The findings showed how a "pool" of independent people had been selected, trained and employed to participate in Children Act complaints procedures. Analysis of this system raises fundamental questions about the potential of this system to provide the kind of objective representation intended to be helpful to complainants. It also contributes to the debate about the most effective ways of safeguarding the welfare of children and young people by providing them with an accessible complaints procedure. The study identifies areas for future research, including the nature of complaints and the "practice wisdom" being acquired by independent people.     

The origins of the public debt of Italy: Geographically dispersed interests?

In this paper we reconstruct the macro regional government deficits of Italy and find that the aggregate deficit resulting from our estimates captures quite well the entire dynamics of the Italian national public deficit. This new data set shows that the ultimate cause of the accumulation of public debt of Italy lies in the extraordinary fiscal imbalance of the Southern regions. The new data allow us to test empirically a simple Common Pool model, augmented by a variable measuring the political influence of each macro region in the Government, to verify the existence of a geographically dispersed interests issue for the Italian case. Our measure of political influence turns out to significantly explain the regions’ deficits also when controlling for population and income gaps. In addition, using a J-test approach, we find that including the predictions of the Common Pool–Pork Barrel regional model into a general model of the Italian national deficit turns out to greatly increase its explanatory power. The results call for deep institutional reforms of the fiscal decentralization so far implemented in Italy.     

唐定昆池考

定昆池是唐安乐公主开凿的私家山庄。利用史籍记载对定昆池试作三项考证,一考其由来、位置和范围;二考唐中宗游池活动;三考其重要景观景点。     

论曲江池的兴衰

曲江池位于唐长安城东南部 ,在这里巧用自然地势布设风景区的设施 ,开始于秦代。隋代以前池中的水源主要依靠池内西侧的汉武泉 ,唐代时池中之水的来源又增加了一条从大峪口引氵水入池的黄渠。秦汉时这里已为名胜游览区 ,唐代时达到鼎盛 ,宋时因长安废不为都 ,黄渠断流 ,泉眼堵塞 ,池水逐渐干涸     

Reviews

Books reviewed:
Bob Deacon with (Michelle Hulse and Paul Stubbs) Global Social Policy: International Organizations and the Future of Welfare
James Midgley Social Welfare in Global Context
John Carter Postmodernity and the Fragmentation of Welfare
Peter Leonard Postmodern Welfare: Reconstructing an Emancipatory Project
Robert E. Goodin The Theory of Institutional Design
A. Rogers and D. Pilgrim Mental Health Policy in Britain: A Critical Introduction
S. Goodwin Comparative Mental Health Policy: From Institutional to Community Care
D. Tomlinson and J. Carrier Asylum in the Community     

佛山祖庙锦香池研究与池水净化项目始末

在前人研究的基础上,就佛山祖庙锦香池的历史沿革、锦香池与旗带水的水系关系、锦香池的传说与习俗等问题作全面细致的探讨。佛山祖庙锦香池水净化项目的实施,对佛山城市升级三年行动的开展形成了有力支持,对全面提升佛山祖庙作为国家AAAA级旅游景区的景观质量有着非常重要的意义。     

Ebony and Ivory? Interracial dating intentions and behaviors of disadvantaged African American women in Kentucky

Using data from 595 predominantly disadvantaged African American women in Kentucky, this study examines perceptions about racial/ethnic partner availability, cultural mistrust, and racism as correlates of interracial dating intentions and behaviors with both white and Hispanic men. Participants reported levels of dating intentions and behaviors were significantly higher with whites than Hispanics. The multivariate models indicate less cultural mistrust and believing it is easier to find a man of that racial/ethnic category were associated with higher interracial dating intentions. Women were more likely to have dated a white man if they believed it was easier to find a white man and had interracial dating intentions; however, interracial dating intentions was the only significant correlate of having dated a Hispanic man. Findings suggest a shrinking social distance between racial groups, broadening the MMPI for African American women; yet, the low levels of interracial relationships are likely driven by preferences of men.     

Pool Screening: An Example of Independent Nonidentical Bernoulli Trial

Pool screening is a widely used study design to make inference about the probability of a subject being positive for an infection when the probability is extremely low. When the pool sizes are unequal, outcomes of pool screening follow independent nonidentical Bernoulli distributions. This paper presents different calculation methods for the probability distribution of T, the number of positive pools. Marcus and Lopes recursive method is recommended.     

收入分配问题对构建和谐社会的影响及对策

当前,构建和谐社会已经成为中国人民为之奋斗的重要任务。但是,由收入分配不公而引起的收入差距和贫富差距的扩大所引发的问题也日益严重。这个问题已不完全属于经济问题,在社会上已引发出一些不和谐之音。如果收入分配问题不能得到及时化解,其累积的后果将有可能对整个社会的和谐与稳定造成严重冲击。所以,促进社会公平和正义是构建社会主义和谐社会的关键所在。有鉴于此,研究收入分配问题对构建和谐社会的影响及对策就显得尤为重要。