论一般累犯构成的主观条件

我国新旧刑法规定一般累犯构成的主观条件限制为故意犯罪,排斥过失犯罪,笔者认为,该规定与特别刑法相冲突,也存在着诸多明显的不合理性,建议立法机关适时取消新刑法第65条第一款的"但书"规定。     

论一般累犯构成的刑度条件

我国新旧刑法规定,一般累犯构成的刑度条件是:前罪为被判处有期徒刑以上的刑罚,后罪为应当判处有期徒刑以上的刑罚。文章认为,该规定及我国刑法理论对此的解释存在片面、牵强和不合理之处,建议取消我国刑法对一般累犯前后罪的刑度条件限制。     

FACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF RECIDIVIST DATA

This paper presents a method of fitting factorial models to recidivism data consisting of the (possibly censored) time to ‘fail’ of individuals, in order to test for differences between groups. Here ‘failure’ means rearrest, reconviction or reincarceration, etc. A proportion P of the sample is assumed to be ‘susceptible’ to failure, i.e. to fail eventually, while the remaining 1-P are ‘immune’, and never fail. Thus failure may be described in two ways: by the probability P that an individual ever fails again (‘probability of recidivism’), and by the rate of failure Λ for the susceptibles. Related analyses have been proposed previously: this paper argues that a factorial approach, as opposed to regression approaches advocated previously, offers simplified analysis and interpretation of these kinds of data. The methods proposed, which are also applicable in medical statistics and reliability analyses, are demonstrated on data sets in which the factors are Parole Type (released to freedom or on parole), Age group (≤ 20 years, 20–40 years, > 40 years), and Marital Status. The outcome (failure) is a return to prison following first or second release.     

Recidivism,Risk, and Resiliency Among North American Indian Parolees and Former Prisoners

Abstract

Using official data, this paper examines recidivism, defined as rearrest over a 3-year follow up period, among a North American Indian First Nation-the Lumbee of North Carolina. Recidivism of the Lumbee, who reside in a tri-county non-reservation area, is compared with that of non-natives residing in the same counties. The working hypothesis was that being a member of the Lumbee First Nation and residing in a “Lumbee county” provides resiliency against the risk of recidivism. The hypothesis was confirmed with respect to violent and drug-related arrests, but not for property and other miscellaneous types of offenses.     

What works?: selectivity models and meta-analysis

What works seeks to identify rehabilitative treatments which are successful in reducing the likelihood that offenders will reoffend. A large number of small case–control studies have been reported in the literature, but with conflicting results. Meta-analysis has been used to reconcile these findings, but again with conflicting results. We reanalyse one of the published meta-analyses in the corrections literature and argue the importance of specifically modelling heterogeneity and selection bias. A sensitivity approach is advocated, suggesting lower average effects and substantially increased measures of uncertainty. The method is tested on a medical example where independent confirmation from a large controlled trial is also available.     

Economic evaluation of drug court: methodology, results, and policy implications

The purpose of this study was to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of three Drug Court programs in Kentucky for two groups of Drug Court participants: program graduates and program terminators. The economic benefits of the Drug Court programs were estimated relative to a comparison group of individuals who were assessed for the Drug Court programs, but did not enter the programs. This study highlights important factors in estimating the costs and the economic benefits of a Drug Court program. Results indicated that, particularly for graduates, Drug Court involvement was associated with reductions in incarceration, mental health services, and legal costs, as well as increases in earnings and child support payments. Net benefits and benefit–cost ratios for each program are presented and policy implications are discussed.     

The journey of dually-involved youth: The description and prediction of rereporting and recidivism

Dually-involved youth refers to youth that are simultaneously receiving services from both the child welfare and juvenile justice systems. The current study focused on a sample of dually-involved youth (N = 1148). The study examined the characteristics of dually-involved youth and reported and predicted the incidence of subsequent maltreatment and re-offending. We found that 8% of dually-involved youth had at least one arrest before entering child welfare system, 32% experienced new reports of maltreatment referrals subsequent to arrest, and 56% were charged with a second offense (i.e., recidivated). The court outcomes received in delinquency court were associated with both rereporting and recidivism. These findings support the development of a shared services model for child welfare and juvenile justice systems.     

我国重新犯罪现状与发展趋势研究

我国尽管1997年刑法将累犯的构成期限从3年延长至5年,但刑满释放人员的重新犯罪率不仅没有下降,反而呈现持续升高的走势。从不同地域之间的比较看,重新犯罪作为社会犯罪的一个重要组成部分,随着社会犯罪的增长而增长,只是增涨的幅度要小于社会犯罪。预计我国刑释人员重新犯罪将在今后一个相当长的历史时期内,呈现总量波动上升,高位持续振荡的发展态势。     

The Effectiveness of Risk Scores: the Logit Rank Plot

A risk score s for event E is a function of covariates with the property that P ( E | s ) is an increasing function of s . Motivated by applications in medicine and in criminology, we suggest the logit rank plot as a good way of summarizing the effectiveness of such a score. Explicitly, plot logit{ P ( E | s )} against logit( r ), where r is the proportional rank of s in a sample or population. The slope of this plot gives an overall measure of effectiveness, and the logit rank transformation provides a common basis on which different risk scores can be compared. Some practical and theoretical aspects are discussed.     

Ethnic and Gender Differences in Offending Patterns: Examining Family Group Conferencing Interventions among At-Risk Adolescents

This secondary study looked at the importance of ethnicity and gender in influencing the relationship between Family Group Conferencing and (FGC) recidivism. The FGC is a mediation procedure involving offenders, their families, and victims of their crimes in which outcomes of material and emotional restitution are sought. Offenders, randomly sampled to participate in a control or experimental group, were sampled via mail, telephone, and in-person interviews. Data from court records were utilized to obtain recidivism rates over an 18-month period. Multivariate analysis indicated a statistically significant difference between the re-arrest rates of FGC participants and non-participants. Female offenders were more likely to avoid arrest than their male counterparts. This study found that ethnicity was not a statistically significant indicator of re-arrest. The FGC has efficacy for juvenile offenders as (1) a cost-effective method to intervene with offenders in their own communities (2) provides alternatives to formal adjudication for vulnerable populations—females and people of color.The present study was conducted from data collected from the Bethlehem, Pennsylvania Police Department and the Community Service Foundation.