Confidence intervals,significance values,maximum likelihood estimates,etc. sharpened into Occam’s razors

Abstract

Confidence sets, p values, maximum likelihood estimates, and other results of non-Bayesian statistical methods may be adjusted to favor sampling distributions that are simple compared to others in the parametric family. The adjustments are derived from a prior likelihood function previously used to adjust posterior distributions.     

对目前我国私营企业主阶层的思考

如何促进私营经济持续稳定健康发展、引导私营企业主阶层成为坚定的社会主义事业的建设者是当前乃至今后一个较长时期内我国社会政治生活中的一个重大课题。为此一要充分认识私营经济和私营企业主阶层存在的长期性 ,采取切实有效的措施谋划私营经济的新发展 ;二要充分认识私营企业主阶层的特殊性 ,正确把握评价私营企业主政治上进步与否的判断标准 ;三要充分认识私营企业主阶层的复杂性 ,坚持德治与法治相结合 ,使其成为坚定的社会主义事业的建设者。     

新时期监事会的业务监督——以中日两国董事义务为视角

我国公司法上的监事会，是对董事及高级管理人员的业务执行进行专门性监督的常设机构，该专门性监督能否取得实效将直接影响公司的经营绩效及利害关系人的利益，而明确监事会的业务监督权限是提高监督实效的关键。本文通过与日本法的比较研究，以2005年公司法增设的勤勉义务（Duty of Care）为焦点，对公司法修改后的股份有限公司监事会的业务监督范围及内容进行了新的解读与探索.     

插入排序法研究(1)

讨论了两种二路插入排序的方法，给出了算法思想，分析了这些方法的时间复杂度，其平均时间复杂度比直接插入排序法降低了1/2-1/2，说明这些排序方法比直接插入排序法具有较高的排序效率。     

On the difficulty of making social choices

The difficulty of making social choices seems to take on two forms: one that is related to both preferences and the method used in aggregating them and one which is related to the preferences only. In the former type the difficulty has to do with the discrepancies of outcomes resulting from various preference aggregation methods and the computation of winners in elections. Some approaches and results which take their motivation from the computability theory are discussed. The latter institution-free type of difficulty pertains to solution theory of the voting games. We discuss the relationships between various solution concepts, e.g. uncovered set, Banks set, Copeland winners. Finally rough sets are utilized in an effort to measure the difficulty of making social choices.     

Cybernetic Risk Analysis

The Pearl Harbor case study reveals that risk analysis failure may be caused by any of a number of factors. However, the most important variables are system load, gain, lead time, and lag time. The dynamics of such cybernetic systems analysis constitute an important aspect in this regard. Four different risk management strategies, or organization designs, have been proposed in this paper. Each has a unique combination of the imputed variables and each has a unique cause of surprise, risk analysis failure, and crisis.     

How Autonomous are Public Corporations in Hong Kong? The Case of the Airport Authority

This article examines the degree of autonomy of Hong Kong’s Airport Authority (AA). Traditionally, airport management in Hong Kong was the responsibility of the government’s Civil Aviation Department. The AA was established in 1995 to manage the new international airport at Chek Lap Kok which opened in 1998. It was expected to run as a commercial enterprise but, because of its strategic importance, there was concern that it should not become an independent empire detached from government control. As a hybrid type of organization, the AA has moved steadily towards full commercialization. The government has also put its privatization on the agenda. Its transformation may have some implications for the redefinition of the future autonomy boundaries of public corporations in Hong Kong.

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Contingent constellations: African urban complexity seen through the workings of a Ghanaian bus station

In this article, I explore the intricate relationship between regulation and contingency in processes of urban economic organisation by focusing on the workings of a central bus station in Accra, Ghana. After introducing the position of the station in Ghana’s urban economy and transport infrastructure, I set out its internal regulative arrangements in relation to larger socio-economic and political constellations the practices of the station workers are contingent upon. Next, I turn the analysis around and describe the ways in which people accommodate themselves within, exploit and thereby co-produce emergent contingencies. The focus on the station, I suggest, offers a window into the complex constituents of niche economic practices that prevail in many spheres of African cities and allows a nuanced reflection on the incongruous and undetermined dynamics of everyday urban ‘becomings.’     

复杂性科学视角下企业成长研究梳理与启示

作为研究和处理复杂系统和行为的工具，复杂性科学为企业成长研究提供了新的起点。从复杂性科学的背景出发，总结了目前企业成长研究的基本共识、内容体系，并为企业管理与决策实践提供指导。     

复杂性科学与高等工程教育的融合

通过对重庆某高校422名工科学生的问卷调查和 SPSS 数据统计分析,探讨了复杂性科学与当前高等工程教育融合的程度以及学生的期望程度,对比了美国和澳大利亚的相关研究结果。研究发现：我国的工程教育在数学、物理和工程方面学生有良好的基础,但科学、技术和人文素质教育还比较薄弱;在跨学科教育和新兴科技知识方面还有明显的欠缺;工科学生有一定的问题解决技能和学习策略,但核心能力培养还有待加强;学生已初步认识到复杂性科学与工程教育融合的重要性和必要性。因此,有必要借鉴复杂性科学的理念与方法,全面改革传统的工程教育模式与课程体系,以主动适应复杂多变的世界。