考虑属性关联的两阶段获胜者确定模型

研究了多属性逆向拍卖的获胜者确定问题。考虑属性之间的两两关联，以定义在2-可加模糊测度上的Choquet积分表达拍卖人的偏好，其中模糊测度的值由拍卖人提供的偏好信息推测得出。由于一般情况下与偏好信息一致的模糊测度取值并不唯一，考虑所有一致的评分函数提出了两阶段获胜者确定方法。首先采用线性规划挑选出在任意评分函数下可能获胜的报价，再通过混合整数规划确定一个与所有一致的评分函数的评价结果最为接近的报价排序，以得分最高者为稳健获胜报价。仿真实验表明，大量的报价为不可能获胜报价，说明了在第一阶段进行筛选的必要性。与现有方法的比较表明了该方法的有效性，且在拍卖轮数较大、报价数目较多时，该方法在计算效率上更有优势。     

加拿大高等教育的特色与启示

加拿大高等教育的特点主要体现在管理体制和教育教学两个方面,包括:联邦政府不设教育部;分为大学和学院两个系统;多样化的联合办学模式;完全学分制;宽口径厚基础的课程体系;启发式的教学模式,等等.加拿大高等教育给予我们的启示有:树立以人为本的办学理念,实施完全学分制;理性思考学校定位,开展多渠道合作办学;整体优化培养方案,实施启发式教学方法;建立科学的高校内部评价体系,等等.     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

基于知识的客户关系研究

本文认为知识是流动的 ,而且它会超越组织边界 ,使企业与客户之间形成知识互动的合作伙伴关系。全文从知识和关系紧紧联系在一起 ,构成了可持续竞争优势的唯一源泉和知识向客户转移 ,即知识向客户流动的结果 ,使客户更加知识化并产生增值 ,其本身又会导致更深层的客户关系 ,而开发客户关系又提高了知识的双向转移等方面进行了论述。得出结论 :开发客户关系最终与知识共享是难以分离的     

Decision-making for paired comparison using the extended amended Davidson model

For decision purpose, one of the commonly used statistical applications is the comparison of two or more objects or characteristics. Sometimes, it is not possible to compare the objects at a time or when the number of objects under study is large and the differences between the objects become small, then a useful way is to compare them in pairwise manner. Because of its practical nature, the fields in which paired comparison techniques are being used are numerous. Many Bayesian statisticians have focused their attention on the practical and usable paired comparison technique and have successfully performed the Bayesian study of many of the paired comparison models. In the current study, analysis of the amended Davidson model (ADM) which has been extended after incorporating the order effect parameter is narrated. For this intention, both the informative and non informative priors are used. The said model is studied for the case of four treatments which are compared pairwise.     

Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.     

A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL

In the 1967 Harvard-Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two-point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.     

Reconciliation with the Utility of Chance by Elaborated Outcomes Destroys the Axiomatic Basis of Expected Utility Theory

Expected utility theory does not directly deal with the utility of chance. It has been suggested in the literature (Samuelson, 1952, Markowitz, 1959) that this can be remedied by an approach which explicitly models the emotional consequences which give rise to the utility of chance. We refer to this as the elaborated outcomes approach. It is argued that the elaborated outcomes approach destroys the possibility of deriving a representation theorem based on the usual axioms of expected utility theory. This is shown with the help of an example due to Markowitz. It turns out that the space of conceivable lotteries over elaborated outcomes is too narrow to permit the application of the axioms. Moreover it is shown that a representation theorem does not hold for the example.     

Beliefs underlying stress reduction and depression help-seeking among college students: An elicitation study

Objective: This study illustrates how a theory-based approach can identify college students’ beliefs about stress reduction activities and help-seeking for depression. These beliefs are the basis for intervention design. Participants: A sample of 53 undergraduate students at a public university in the Midwest participated in this research during March 2016. Methods: An open-ended belief elicitation survey was administered online. Beliefs were identified through qualitative thematic analyses. Results: Exercise was students’ most preferred stress reduction activity. Beliefs about exercise emphasized physical benefits yet also not having time for exercise. Beliefs about help-seeking for depression emphasized treatment efficacy, support from others, stigma, and time constraints. Conclusions: Whereas beliefs about positive outcomes inform educational and motivational messages, beliefs about time constraints underscore the need to also consider structural factors that can help students find time to attend to their well-being.     

Testing Prospect Theory in a Deterministic Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Environment*

Prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky [7] is tested in a deterministic multiple criteria decision-making context. In two experiments conducted in classroom settings subjects made pairwise preference comparisons of condominiums for sale. The results of the experiments indicate that the traditional value model did not explain the subjects' revealed preferences as well as the prospect model. We conclude that prospect theory is a reasonable model of choice for many individuals in such a context.