Social identities and political cleavages: the role of political context

Summary. Using a novel method, the paper investigates the influence of social group identities on attitudes and on voting in a variety of political contexts. Examining the major regions of Britain, Canada and the USA, we find considerable national and regional diversity in the nature of social cleavages. For example, social class and race had widely different effects across societies, but within societies their effects on attitudes and on voting were very similar. However, despite that, age and religion had a similar effect on attitudes across societies; the effects on voting varied considerably. The significant within-country differences underline the importance of using region, rather than country, as the unit of analysis. More importantly, these results highlight the role of political context, especially competing cleavages and the structure of party competition, in the establishment of politically relevant social cleavages.     

Voting Technology,Political Responsiveness,and Infant Health: Evidence From Brazil

This paper studies the introduction of electronic voting technology in Brazilian elections. Estimates exploiting a regression discontinuity design indicate that electronic voting reduced residual (error‐ridden and uncounted) votes and promoted a large de facto enfranchisement of mainly less educated citizens. Estimates exploiting the unique pattern of the technology's phase‐in across states over time suggest that, as predicted by political economy models, it shifted government spending toward health care, which is particularly beneficial to the poor. Positive effects on both the utilization of health services (prenatal visits) and newborn health (low‐weight births) are also found for less educated mothers, but not for the more educated.     

中国农村基层民主选举中经济投票行为研究

"经济投票"理论为分析公民投票行为内在机理提供有效的观测窗口。伴随我国农村基层群众自治组织民主选举的蓬勃开展,针对投票人投票参与和投票选择等行为研究的重要性日益凸显。已有研究中由于存在样本选择、资料来源、研究方法取向等问题,无法从严谨的学术视角提供经济投票理论对中国农村基层民主选举行为的影响的实证分析。对经济投票理论展开全景性回顾和归纳性评述,基于全国性调查数据来实证分析农村基层选举中经济投票理论的现实影响,可以发现,年龄与投票行为之间存在倒U形关系,社会经济地位对投票行为的影响主要通过经济状况和主观社会地位来施加,政治涉入程度越深的村民更倾向于积极参与,认为"经济发展比民主重要"的人群更愿意投票,"经济评价"对投票行为只发挥了很有限的影响。所谓"经济投票"理论对中国农村基层投票行为的解释力有限,可能受理论局限性、经济投票测量问题、中国当前重经济发展的宏观环境以及村庄的异质性的影响。     

R×C ecological inference: bounds, correlations, flexibility and transparency of assumptions

Summary.  Despite its potential pitfalls, ecological inference is an unavoidable part of some quantitative settings, including US voting rights litigation. In such applications, the analyst will typically encounter two-way tables with more than two rows and columns. Although several ecological inference methods are currently available for 2×2 tables, there are fewer options for analysing general R × C tables, and virtually none that model counts as opposed to fractions. We propose a count R × C method that respects the bounds deterministically, that allows for complex relationships between internal cell quantities, that is easily extensible and that results from transparent assumptions. We study the method via simulation, and then apply it to an example that is drawn from the state of Texas relevant to recent redistricting litigation there.     

An integrated approach for the electronic contract manufacturer selection problem

In the global competitive environment, lead companies have to outsource their manufacturing to electronic contract manufacturers (ECM) in order to reduce operational cost and capture higher profit. Thus, the process of selecting contract manufacturers to be strategic partners is important for these companies. For this reason, this paper proposes an integrated approach for the electronic contract manufacturer selection problem, combining the voting method and the goal programming (GP) model to take into account quantitative factors involved in the selection process, which is applied to a real-world ECM selection problem encountered by a leading provider of complete broadband access solutions. Results of the case study indicate that the voting method can acquire the rating information quickly from manufacturing managers based on suitable evaluating criteria. The rating information simultaneously incorporates ECMs' performance scores as a weight for each ECM. A production planner can easily employ the GP model and ECMs’ weight information to effectively assign demand quantities to ECMs. Therefore, the integrated approach is a practical and useful tool for solving the contract manufacturer selection problem.     

Environmental disasters as risk regulation catalysts? The role of Bhopal,Chernobyl, Exxon Valdez,Love Canal,and Three Mile Island in shaping U.S. environmental law

Unexpected events such as environmental catastrophes capture wide public attention. Soon after five major shocks—Three Mile Island, Love Canal, Bhopal, Chernobyl, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill—Congress voted on new risk regulation. This paper conducts an event study to test whether individual congressional representatives were “shocked” by these environmental disasters into increasing their probability of voting in favor of risk legislation. On average, representatives were less likely to vote in favor of bills tied to these five events. Significant heterogeneity in representatives’ responses to these shocks is documented. Liberal Northeast representatives were most likely to increase their pro-environment voting in the aftermath of these shocks.

To What Extent Did Ethnicity and Economic Issues Matter in the 2007 Disputed Kenyan Elections?

This article assesses the key factors that influenced the intention to vote in the 2007 presidential election in Kenya, using data from a survey and other external datasets. Ethnicity was found to be one of the main factors. However, access to private and public goods, poverty and differences in wealth across ethnic groups also mattered, depending on how the voter claimed to be self‐identified. Those who self‐identified in terms of their ethnicity were influenced the most by access to services such as schools, health clinics and police stations, evidence suggesting that voters use ethnicity as a proxy to gauge which candidates will give them greater access to services provided by the state.     

An effective total ranking model for a ranked voting system

In this paper an effective model to rank candidates in a preferential election is proposed. It is an extension and simplified form of a recently proposed model for ranking efficient candidates. The model consists of fewer constraints and can be used for ranking inefficient as well as efficient candidates. Some techniques are introduced to decrease the complexity of the proposed model by obtaining some of the results by inspection.     

Multilevel models for repeated binary outcomes: attitudes and voting over the electoral cycle

Models for fitting longitudinal binary responses are explored by using a panel study of voting intentions. A standard multilevel repeated measures logistic model is shown to be inadequate owing to a substantial proportion of respondents who maintain a constant response over time. A multivariate binary response model is shown to be a better fit to the data.     

Media exposure and the engaged citizen: How the media shape political participation

Media exposure is widely known to increase institutional forms of political participation such as voting. Less well understood is whether media exposure also affects protest, a less institutional form of engagement. This paper examines the mechanics through which this relationship operates by considering the media's direct and indirect effect on voting and protesting, via political trust, efficacy, and knowledge. We make these comparisons by analyzing the unique Jennings panel dataset that collects information on respondents at three separate points. The results show that media exposure affects voting more than protesting and that these relationships operate through different mechanisms. While media exposure leads to voting because it increases political knowledge, it is associated with protest via external political efficacy. Furthermore, while this relationship is causal for voting it is only correlational for protest. The results illustrate the importance of disentangling forms of political engagement when considering media effects.