Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve

In this article, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.     

广义最小塑性区尺寸判据

本文为了解决裂纹扩展问题，介绍一种新的断裂判据。在广义的Von Mises层服准则基础上，结合裂纹尖端附近的奇异应力场，得到了一个新的判据，名叫广义最小塑性区尺寸刹据，结果与参考文献(1)一致。概念清晰，方法简便。     

杂交中稻超多蘖壮秧少穴高产栽培研究——Ⅱ:移栽时单株茎蘖数对生长发育及产量的影响

以汕优63和D优10号两个杂交组合在田间条件下连续两年观察了秧苗移栽时的单株茎蘖数对少穴栽培杂交中稻栽后生长发育及产量的影响。其结果表明,在10叶期栽插和每公顷本田植75.0千穴至150.0千穴的少穴栽培条件下,单株有效分蘖数和最高苗数均同移栽时单株茎蘖数呈极显著正相关;单株有效穗在移栽时单株茎蘖数为8～23苗范围与单株茎蘖数呈极显著正相关;单株产量在单株茎蘖数为8～15苗范围与单株茎蘖数呈极显著正相关。     

杂交水稻受淹后产量损失程度及救灾措施研究

本文采用模拟洪水的方法,探讨杂交稻不同生育期淹水对稻谷产量损失的程度和灾后挽救措施的应用效果。分析了各时期淹水后稻谷减产的原因及淹后营养物质的变化。根据稻穗损失情况,提出相应的救灾措施。     

12个国外水稻品种引种试验Ⅰ生育期、农艺性状及产量表现观测

对12个国外水稻品种的生育期、部分农艺性状和产量进行了观测，结果表明：12个国外稻种基本适应哲里木盟地区的自然条件，其中73377、64364、64721三个品种表现出较好的农艺性状，其产量分别为853.8kg／666.7_2，1200．6kg／666．7米2和1147．2kg／666．7米2，明显高于对照，可望成为哲里木盟地区优良种质资源。     

绵农1号小麦产量及构成因素分析

经试验示范证明,绵农1号小麦新品种,产量水平较绵阳11号高10％左右,抗白粉病,叶锈病性显著优于绵阳11号。为发挥大穗优势,获得亩产400～500公斤产量水平,其产量结构宜控制在亩有效穗20万左右,穗粒数40～45粒,千粒重50～55克。在保证一定群体的基础上,提高穗重,协调穗,粒,重三者间的关系,是获得高产的基础。     

The Co-Integrated Vector Autoregression with Errors–in–Variables

The co-integrated vector autoregression is extended to allow variables to be observed with classical measurement errors (ME). For estimation, the model is parametrized as a time invariant state-space form, and an accelerated expectation-maximization algorithm is derived. A simulation study shows that (i) the finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates and reduced rank test statistics are excellent (ii) neglected measurement errors will generally distort unit root inference due to a moving average component in the residuals, and (iii) the moving average component may–in principle–be approximated by a long autoregression, but a pure autoregression cannot identify the autoregressive structure of the latent process, and the adjustment coefficients are estimated with a substantial asymptotic bias. An application to the zero-coupon yield-curve is given.     

添加芦笋弃料培养凤尾菇的研究

将芦笋弃料加入稻草、棉壳栽培料中培养凤尾菇,研究结果加入芦笋弃料4%～6%,可显著地提高凤尾菇的产量,且品质更佳,既可综合利用资源,又提高经济效益,减少环境污染。     

Preparation of Manuscripts for ASA Journals

Macroeconometric and financial researchers often use binary data constructed in a way that creates serial dependence. We show that this dependence can be allowed for if the binary states are treated as Markov processes. In addition, the methods of construction ensure that certain sequences are never observed in the constructed data. Together these features make it difficult to utilize static and dynamic Probit models. We develop modeling methods that respect the Markov-process nature of constructed binary data and explicitly deals with censoring constraints. An application is provided that investigates the relation between the business cycle and the yield spread.     

Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?

We use the Christensen, Diebold, and Rudebusch (2011) representation of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in advanced, emerging market, and low-income countries. We find a robust link from the policy and short-term interbank rates to the longer-term bond yields in all countries. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime and the level of development: advanced countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have better-behaved yield curves than the countries with other monetary regimes.