中国“碳中和”目标的实现路径与模式选择

围绕中国碳中和目标的实现路径与模式选择问题，提出了一个中国应对气候变化整体治理模式，即多阶段混合主导型碳中和实现模式。这一模式是以国家为核心，在一定时期和内外环境约束下，通过减排和增汇路径，对中国境内由人类活动造成的CO2排放与人为CO2吸收量之间关系进行调整和平衡的过程；其内部由宏观、中观和微观三层结构组成，每层结构各不相同。多阶段混合主导型碳中和实现模式的提出，拓展和完善了气候变化整体治理理论，为气候变化治理提供了机制借鉴。     

Translating cross-lagged effects into incidence rates and risk ratios: The case of psychosocial safety climate and depression

Longitudinal studies are the gold standard of empirical work and stress research whenever experiments are not plausible. Frequently, scales are used to assess risk factors and their consequences, and cross-lagged effects are estimated to determine possible risks. Methods to translate cross-lagged effects into risk ratios to facilitate risk assessment do not yet exist, which creates a divide between psychological and epidemiological work stress research. The aim of the present paper is to demonstrate how cross-lagged effects can be used to assess the risk ratio of different levels of psychosocial safety climate (PSC) in organisations, an important psychosocial risk for the development of depression. We used available longitudinal evidence from the Australian Workplace Barometer (N?=?1905) to estimate cross-lagged effects of PSC on depression. We applied continuous time modelling to obtain time-scalable cross effects. These were further investigated in a 4-year Monte Carlo simulation, which translated them into 4-year incident rates. Incident rates were determined by relying on clinically relevant 2-year periods of depression. We suggest a critical value of PSC?=?26 (corresponding to ?1.4 SD), which is indicative of more than 100% increased incidents of persistent depressive disorder in 4-year periods compared to average levels of PSC across 4 years.     

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness

Understanding the risk of biological invasions associated with particular transport pathways and source regions is critical for implementing effective biosecurity management. This may require both a model for physical connectedness between regions, and a measure of environmental similarity, so as to quantify the potential for a species to be transported from a given region and to survive at a destination region. We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not previously known to be present in Australia. We determined that, of the insect pest species used for validation, the species most likely to be present in Australia were those also present in geopolitical regions with high transport connectivity to Australia, and those regions that were geographically close, and had similar environments.     

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information Tools for Community Adaptation to Changes in Climate or Land Use

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.     

“七月流火”与北豳物候俗解

"七月流火"是《诗经·豳风·七月》中的名句,历来解释"火"为心宿之大火星,"流"为向西偏下。其意是言七月大火星向西偏下预示七月天已寒凉,是古代天文现象的真实记录。但据《七月》产地北豳的物候特征及《诗经》对"火"字的运用体例考量,以直觉通俗的眼光释"七月流火"为七月天热得像下火像着火,非但与豳地气候相应而未尝不可,或许与古诗的原貌更为切贴。     

构建人与自然生命共同体：全球气候治理难题的破解之道

全球气候变化关乎人类社会的可持续发展,合作治理是应然需求。然而,人类行为对气候的破坏、气候灾害的流动性增加了跨国治理难度,特别是受全球气候治理公共产品供给不足、全球气候治理体系领导力匮乏等因素影响,全球气候合作治理仍面临难题。面对新形势与新挑战,中国倡导构建人与自然生命共同体,为全球气候治理贡献了中国智慧,提供了破解全球气候合作治理难题的路径选择。作为全球气候治理的新理念、新思路,人与自然生命共同体主张坚持人与自然和谐共生、坚持以人为本、坚持多边治理、坚持实践导向,将推动各国以合作共赢为共同体意识,加快经济社会的全面绿色转型,积极承担节能减排主体责任,助推国际社会完善全球气候治理体系,维护国际气候公平正义,实现全球气候善治。     

领导风格对员工知识隐藏行为的影响:心理安全感的中介效应和动机氛围的调节效用

企业知识隐藏行为会抑制创新与合作氛围,探究员工知识隐藏行为的诱因对企业团队氛围和价值实现具有重要意义。本研究基于社会交换理论,探索不同类型领导风格与员工知识隐藏行为之间的关系以及内在影响机制,具体包括:剖析谦卑型领导和辱虐型领导与员工知识隐藏行为之间的关系;探究员工心理安全感是否发挥中介作用;分析心理安全感与知识隐藏的关系是否受到不同类型团队动机氛围的调节影响。本研究通过对长三角地区某省的6家科技型公司共820名员工进行问卷调查,利用层次回归模型进行数据处理,结果显示:不同风格的领导行为对知识隐藏行为都产生影响,心理安全感发挥着重要的中介作用。具体而言,谦卑型领导通过心理安全感对知识隐藏行为产生负向影响,辱虐型领导通过心理安全感对知识隐藏行为产生正向影响。此外,动机氛围起到调节作用,其中绩效氛围正向调节员工心理安全感与其知识隐藏行为之间的关系,掌控氛围负向调节员工心理安全感与其知识隐藏行为之间的关系。本研究从领导力视角深化了对于员工知识隐藏行为诱因的认识,从情境视角为心理安全感和知识隐藏的关系构建了边界条件,进一步丰富了领导力、组织行为管理等理论;同时,本研究也为企业知识隐藏行为管理提供了一条清晰的解决思路。为了最大限度抑制知识隐藏行为,企业领导者需要多展示谦卑型的特质,对员工观点持开放态度,愿意吸纳和听取他人意见;要培养员工的心理安全感,让员工在知识分享中能够毫无顾忌;采用鼓励竞争的方式营造团队氛围,提升团队的绩效氛围等。未来将进一步采用多变量来源、多样化情境进行验证,将相关研究结论从中国科技型企业推广到其他研究情境中,从而提高研究结论的外部有效性。     

Emotional Climate in Families Experiencing Homelessness: Associations with Child Affect and Socioemotional Adjustment in School

This study examined associations among family‐level risks, emotional climate, and child adjustment in families experiencing homelessness. Emotional climate, an indirect aspect of emotion socialization, was indexed by parents’ expressed emotion while describing their children. Sociodemographic risk and parent internalizing distress were hypothesized to predict more negativity and less warmth in the emotional climate. Emotional climate was expected to predict observer‐rated child affect and teacher‐reported socioemotional adjustment, mediating effects of risk. Participants were 138 homeless parents (64 percent African‐American) and their four‐ to six‐year‐old children (43.5 percent male). During semi‐structured interviews, parents reported demographic risks and internalizing distress and completed a Five Minute Speech Sample about their child, later rated for warmth and negativity. Children's positive and negative affect were coded from videotapes of structured parent‐child interaction tasks. Socioemotional adjustment (externalizing behavior, peer acceptance, and prosocial behavior) was reported by teachers a few months later. Hypotheses were partially supported. Parent internalizing distress was associated with higher parent negativity, which was linked to more negative affect in children, and parent warmth was associated with children's positive affect. Neither emotional climate nor child affect predicted teacher‐reported externalizing behavior or peer acceptance, but parental negativity and male sex predicted lower prosocial behavior in the classroom. Future research directions and clinical implications are discussed.     

Action,Technology, and the Homogenisation of Place: Why Climate Change is Antithetical to Political Action

According to Hannah Arendt, the concept of ‘political action’ is a fundamental component of the human condition because it encapsulates how the uniqueness of each human being intersects to create unpredictable political initiatives and effects. Recently, despite being one of the most daunting political challenges ever faced by humanity, there has been a noted collective action failure, or inaction, concerning the global threat of anthropogenic climate change. Why? This article seeks to explain this political inaction in a new way: by examining the metaphysical role that technology plays in disclosing the climate as a thinkable and global object. After applying the philosophy of Martin Heidegger to the complex mathematical general circulation models (GCMs) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this article details how the metaphysics underlying GCMs manifests the perceivable world by ‘enframing’ it, or by implicitly representing subjects, objects, and Nature itself, as a predictable, calculable, and orderable relation of static forces. When this metaphysical and mathematical uniformity constructs the climate as a calculable object that is globalised through the IPCC, it is ultimately found to be contradictory to the distinctness and unpredictability necessary for distinct human action to occur. Paradoxically, therefore, political action is argued to be metaphysically antithetical to the technologically enframed science, politics, and discourse, of global climate change itself. The importance of distinct and plural human places, when filtered through GCMs, becomes subsumed by the climate as a homogenous, calculative, and politically inactive, global object.     

Coastal Adaptation Planning in Fairbourne,Wales: lessons for Climate Change Adaptation

ABSTRACT

Adaptation to climate change is emerging as a central objective and policy frame for coastal communities. This paper examines recent climate change adaptation efforts in the UK, centring on the case of Fairbourne, Wales. The village is facing the long-term prospect of flooding and inundation due to the impacts of sea level rise. The recent Shoreline Management Plan for the area has recommended realignment of the coast and eventual decommissioning of Fairbourne. The paper draws on a qualitative research methodology of interviews, policy review and observation to narrate the case and provide key insights and lessons for planners working in environmentally vulnerable coastal settings and managing climate adaptation processes.