工业劳动力流动、资本创造与经济地理空间均衡

资本创造模型（CC模型）忽视了要素流动对产业空间分布的影响。而发展的新的资本创造模型则认为资本集聚的过程必然伴随着工业劳动力的流动过程。另外，是资本的实际收益而不是名义收益决定资本是否创造。研究结果表明，随着贸易自由度、工业品支出份额及资本贴现率的变大，替代弹性及资本折旧率的变小，将降低对称结构的稳定性，而提高中心-外围结构的稳定性；经济地理空间的产业均衡是集聚力和分散力相互作用的结果。当企业生产工业品的规模报酬递增程度足够显著，或者工业品支出份额很高时，市场拥挤效应将彻底消失，并转化成为促进产业集聚的动力；突破点与持续点的大小比较可以形成不同的关系，这意味着随着贸易自由度的变化，本文发展的资本创造模型可以体现出多样化的产业空间动态演化行为。     

Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

英文影片的中国方言版字幕翻译

2012年3D 版《泰坦尼克号》的华丽上映曾掀起影迷们对它的新一轮热捧。文章就同样备受中国观众喜爱的中国方言版《泰坦尼克号》为案例，结合功能目的论来探寻中国方言版字幕翻译的目的与性质，进而分析、总结英文影片字幕的中国方言版译制活动过程。     

The Eurasian Economic Union: Development Prospects and Possible Obstacles

This article analyzes the development prospects and problems for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). It examines issues of integration within the EAEU, as well as interactions with other countries, both CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and non-CIS. The main problem of integration within the EAEU is the dominance of redistributive motives over productive ones. This article assesses the extent of Russian oil and gas transfers to EAEU partners and the impact of tax maneuvers on their size. It shows that the creation of mechanisms for redistributing profits within the EAEU will allow a positive economic effect to materialize from free trade agreements with non-CIS countries. The article assesses the risks for the EAEU related to Russia’s introduction of a unilateral ban on food imports from countries on the sanctions list and to the possible establishment of tariffs on trade with Ukraine.     

Using local linear kernel smoothers to test the lack of fit of nonlinear regression models

Herein, we propose a data-driven test that assesses the lack of fit of nonlinear regression models. The comparison of local linear kernel and parametric fits is the basis of this test, and specific boundary-corrected kernels are not needed at the boundary when local linear fitting is used. Under the parametric null model, the asymptotically optimal bandwidth can be used for bandwidth selection. This selection method leads to the data-driven test that has a limiting normal distribution under the null hypothesis and is consistent against any fixed alternative. The finite-sample property of the proposed data-driven test is illustrated, and the power of the test is compared with that of some existing tests via simulation studies. We illustrate the practicality of the proposed test by using two data sets.     

基于定货合同的供应商柔性分析和选择模型

供应链及供应链管理是目前国内外学术界和工商企业管理者共同关心的课题,他们提出了众多分析方法和分析模型,但由于计算复杂,在实际操作中运用较少。实际上,在供应链业务流程中,供应合同是最关键的法律文件,合同信息分析能很好地减少不确定性,降低风险。因此,供应商和购货商选择模型应包括以下参数:单位供应价格、定货周期、最小定货提前期、每个周期最小定货量、临时配送补偿系数、定货量小于最小定货量补偿系数。     

论邓小平对选拔培养中青年干部的思想

建设有中国特色的社会主义市场经济 ,需要一大批杰出的人才。如何选拔培养中青年干部成为我们党和国家一项重大课题。运用邓小平理论中关于选拔培养中青年干部的观点并指导实践 ,将会对我国的四化建设起到积极作用     

林业投资均衡性的理论分析

我国林业投资体制的改革面临着许多新的课题,研究市场经济条件下林业投资状况十分必要。首先,从均衡理论出发,在分析宏观经济政策对林业的影响和林业投资现状基础上,对形成这种状况的主要原因进行了探讨;其次,以林业投资对象为主体,对其微观经济行为的成本与收益问题进行了分析;最后,提出深化林业投资体制改革要促进投资主体多元化,给予林业更多的政策扶持,进一步完善林业法律法规,以促进我国林业持续稳定地发展。     

管理贸易的制度经济学分析

各国开展对外贸易是为了能充分、有效配置国内外资源 ,并从中获得最大利益 ,但在追求最大利益的过程中 ,各国所采取的贸易政策都不尽相同。这些不同的贸易政策大体分为自由贸易与保护贸易两类。 2 0世纪 80年代初 ,一种既不同于自由贸易 ,也不同于保护贸易 ,但又兼有两者特点的新型的贸易制度开始出现 ,这便是“管理贸易”。管理贸易是自由贸易与保护贸易博弈的结果 ,是各国在无法达到最佳目标模式时所能选择的次佳目标模式 ,其本质是有组织的自由和协调的保护。一些西方国家先后采取管理贸易并获得了有效的实践效果。我国应正视这一新情况、新趋势进行贸易制度变迁与创新———实行偏保护的管理贸易政策     

转型时期我国农民的理智抉择

社会转型,农民主体意识觉醒,价值取向市场化、现代化。非农就业成为农民的理智抉择。抉择具有合理性和必然性,既符合我国国情,又符合国家的发展战略,是现代化发展的必由之路。