Tests of statistical hypotheses and their use in studies of natural phenomena

Contrary to ideas suggested by the title of the conference at which the present paper was presented, the author is not aware of a conceptual difference between a “test of a statistical hypothesis” and a “test of significance” and uses these terms interchangeably. A study of any serious substantive problem involves a sequence of incidents at which one is forced to pause and consider what to do next. In an effort to reduce the frequency of misdirected activities one uses statistical tests. The procedure is illustrated on two examples: (i) Le Cam’s (and associates’) study of immunotherapy of cancer and (ii) a socio-economic experiment relating to low-income homeownership problems.     

Modeling Insurer‐Homeowner Interactions in Managing Natural Disaster Risk

The current system for managing natural disaster risk in the United States is problematic for both homeowners and insurers. Homeowners are often uninsured or underinsured against natural disaster losses, and typically do not invest in retrofits that can reduce losses. Insurers often do not want to insure against these losses, which are some of their biggest exposures and can cause an undesirably high chance of insolvency. There is a need to design an improved system that acknowledges the different perspectives of the stakeholders. In this article, we introduce a new modeling framework to help understand and manage the insurer's role in catastrophe risk management. The framework includes a new game‐theoretic optimization model of insurer decisions that interacts with a utility‐based homeowner decision model and is integrated with a regional catastrophe loss estimation model. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as bounds on the insurer‐insured interactions. We demonstrate the model for a full‐scale case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in eastern North Carolina; present the results from the perspectives of all stakeholders—primary insurers, homeowners (insured and uninsured), and reinsurers; and examine the effect of key parameters on the results.     

社区业主代表大会模式的制度创新——以北京市海淀区上地西里小区为例

基层群众自治制度应该如何建设,这是在新的经济和社会结构背景下优化社区治理、建设和谐社区必须认真探讨的问题。本文以北京市海淀区上地西里小区为例,论述其基层治理体制的发展过程,并对上地西里社区业主代表大会模式进行了分析和评价,探讨了城市社区基层民主治理模式的基本思路。     

Reverse Mortgage as an Income Stabilizer for the Elderly in Korea

This paper examines the features of reverse mortgages in Korea, comparing beneficiary and non‐beneficiary groups in relation to income security for elderly homeowners without sufficient income. In addition, this study estimates how much poverty rates would decrease if all elderly single and couple households joined the program. A reverse mortgage was implemented in 2007 in Korea as a government guaranteed scheme for elderly homeowners. Notwithstanding the contribution of the reverse mortgage program, many elderly homeowners do not utilize the system as a useful means to earn additional income. Given the high elderly poverty rate and incomplete social safety net in Korea, the program should be extended to supplement the insufficient income of elderly “house‐rich but cash‐poor” households. The paper first reviews reverse mortgage policy details. We then investigate key characteristics of the beneficiaries and compare beneficiaries and non‐beneficiaries based on nationwide survey data. Finally, we estimate the potential income‐raising effects of the program and draw implications of the income security policy in Korea and reconfiguration of the welfare state in a broader context.     

Diffusion of the Property Tax Work-Off Program for Senior Homeowners in Massachusetts

Property tax work-off programs (TWOPs) provide senior homeowners with relief from some of their property tax obligations in exchange for services provided to local governments. These programs are offered by some county and municipal governments at their own discretion in a number of states. Through a qualitative study comparing municipalities in Massachusetts that participate in the program with similar communities that do not participate, the authors sought to learn the reasons for both participation and nonparticipation. They interviewed local officials in eight participating and six nonparticipating communities. Mohr's theory for adoption and Roger's theory for diffusion are used for the conceptual framework of the study. Local leaderships' motivation, financial or political resources and obstacles, senior homeowners' awareness, communication between communities, and perceived benefits of the program were the major factors in adoption and diffusion of TWOPs in Massachusetts.     

维权行动和基层民主参与——以B市商品房业主为例

本文将讨论公民维权活动和基层民主的关系。现有文献认为,对居民来说,居委会选举通常没有太大的实际意义。然而作者在田野调查中发现,在住房市场化改革中成长起来的商品房业主阶层,在产权利益经常遭受侵犯的情况下,会想尽一切办法来保护自己的权益。参选居委会成为业主保护权益的一种方式,尤其是当基层政府和居委会对业主的维权进行干涉的时候。〖JP2〗本文将简要介绍作者通过滚雪球方式调查的19个小区的整体情况和一般性的趋势,并通过3个案例来具体讨论商品房业主制度性参与的维权方式,展现其内在的机制。笔者认为,业主的制度性参与,一方面有利于业主维权,另一方面也使居委会选举变得更具实际意义,有可能促进基层政府依法办事。     

The reform and development of old age pension policy in China

Despite the anticipation that the legal system would be able to offer a civilized and institutionalized means in settling the infringement of homeowners' property and consumer rights, empirical evidence has instead indicated a decline in the employment of litigation in dispute resolution. This paper attempts to examine the complex interaction between the rule of law and homeowner activism in upholding their rights. Information on property related litigation was collected from online court rulings in Shanghai which is supplemented with in-depth interviews with homeowner activists who were involved in litigation. In this paper, the rule of law in China is analysed within a wider socio-political context of neighbourhood governance and the emerging civil society. Despite the inadequacy in the legal system in protecting homeowners' rights, empirical evidence has shown that homeowner activists have explored the legal system, not just as a means of redress but also to employ creatively as part of their action strategy in settling their problems outside the court.