HIV/AIDS and other household shocks as catalysts of local commercialization of non‐timber forest products in Southern Africa

Local trade in non‐timber forest products (NTFPs) is increasing globally, yet the causes have been little studied. We examine household shock as a driver of NTFP trade in five southern African countries, with an emphasis on HIV/AIDS‐related illness and death. Over the past two years, 95% of trader households experienced at least one shock, with family illness and death recorded for 68% and 42% of households, respectively. Almost 40% had entered the trade because of HIV/AIDS‐related shocks. Additional shocks included natural disasters, crop pests or failure and livestock loss. The sale of NTFPs was the third most common coping strategy, after kinship and agricultural adjustments. Coping strategies differed between sites and type of shock.     

Everything for the Children: Orphans Growing Up in Informal Adoptive Families in China

Most orphaned children in China are cared for by their extended families or become state wards under the guardianship of child welfare institutions. Some exceptions are children who are found and cared for by families in the community, without a formalized adoption or foster relationship. In some locations, institutions now accept guardianship for these children and support the informal adoptive family to continue to care for them. This article examines the outcomes for these children as they became young adults by comparing these 12 children raised within the system as they approach or have approached young adulthood (now aged 16–40 years-old). Some of the participants were either informally adopted or lived in institutional care. The results of this study found that the family environment was more conducive to the young people’s wellbeing as they approached or entered adulthood. The participants raised in informal care appeared to be treated similar to the biological children in these families. When the institution formalized the state guardianship responsibility, it also meant the families had state resources for support to protect the children’s rights to economic security, education, health care, and social participation. This practice by the institution supported the addition of informal adoption, as one step closer to permanency than foster care. Future implications include considering this option to help promote the family system assisting these children, families, and the state.     

What are the Risk Factors for Antisocial Behavior Among Low‐income Youth in CapeTown?

Research in high‐income countries has identified an array of risk factors for youth antisocial behavior. However, in low‐ and middle‐income countries, despite higher prevalence of offending and antisocial behavior, there is a paucity of prospective, longitudinal evidence examining predictors. South Africa is a middle‐income country with high rates of violence and crime, and a unique social context, characterized by striking income and gender inequality, and increasing number of children orphaned by AIDS. We tested predictors of antisocial behavior at community, family, and individual levels over four years. One thousand and twenty five adolescents from poor, urban South African settlements were assessed in 2005 (50 percent female; M = 13.4 years) and followed up in 2009. The sample analyzed consisted of the 723 youth (71 percent) assessed at both time points. We employed sociodemographic questionnaires and standardized scales. Validity of our antisocial behavior measure was supported by cross‐sectional associations with well‐evidenced concomitants of youth antisocial behavior, including drug taking and truancy. Regression analysis indicated that male gender and experience of community violence, but not poverty or abuse, predicted antisocial behavior. Despite many South African youth experiencing abuse and poverty at the family level, our findings suggest that high levels of violence in communities may be a more important factor contributing to the development of antisocial behavior, particularly among males.     

云南省沿边地区艾滋孤儿生存现状及应对策略

地处祖国西南边疆的云南,是艾滋病防治重点省,紧邻世界毒品源地、经济欠发达与边民的大量流动,使得云南的艾滋病防治与艾滋孤儿救助安置工作面临着特殊的困难与严峻的挑战。近年来,云南省艾滋孤儿数量呈逐年上升趋势。受艾滋病影响儿童家庭人均生产收入显著减少,辍学率与缺课率高,他们生活在社会歧视与自我歧视之中,孤立无援、生活贫困、心理压力大,与非艾滋孤儿存在明显差异。现行救助活动虽对改善艾滋孤儿生活状况起到了一定作用,但其生活环境、立法与身心健康等依然是目前亟需解决的问题。     

Family Benefits and Fertility: An Econometric Analysis

A population's growth potential is significantly underestimated by conventional calculations of population momentum which assume an immediate drop to replacement level fertility. Here we assume that the growth rate of births linearly declines to zero over a specified time interval, and find simple and intuitively meaningful expressions for the size of the ultimate birth cohort and the resultant population momentum. In particular, we find that the increase in the number of births over the transition is equal to growth at the initial rate for half the time needed to attain a constant birth level. Thus our formula readily calculates the growth potential of a population under a gradual approach to stationarity without the need for a numerical projection. Calculations for actual and hypothetical populations are presented to show the demographic impact of such gradual approaches to zero growth.     

我国艾滋孤儿研究:回顾与前瞻

作为伴随我国艾滋病大规模扩散而产生的一个双重社会弱势群体,艾滋孤儿引起了党和国家的高度关注,相关的研究也日渐丰富起来,并集中于艾滋孤儿的基本特征、生存状况、社会支持、具体需求、现有服务体系以及未来救助对策等六个主要的研究领域。文章在对现有艾滋孤儿研究所存在问题进行评论的基础上,文章提出未来的艾滋孤儿研究应该转变研究理念,拓展研究领域,丰富研究方法,并注重比较性研究。     

中国儒家对孤儿和流浪儿的关怀伦理

流浪儿童问题已成为世界性的问题。中国儒家对孤儿、流浪儿的关怀伦理主要体现在 :尽力拯救孤儿、流浪儿的生命 ;用人间的真情和爱去抚爱孤儿、流浪儿的感情创伤 ;给予尽可能多的培养和教育。由于历史的阶级的局限 ,孤儿、流浪儿群体的悲惨命运无法从根本上改变 ,但儒家对孤儿、流浪儿的关怀伦理对我们研究和解决这一问题有一定的参考价值。     

Families, orphans and children under stress in Zimbabwe

This paper evaluates a programme called FOCUS in Zimbabwe: Families, Orphans, and Children under Stress. The programme was initiated in 1993 and works with seven community groups, providing support to around 6500 children in 2000 households. The programme succeeds through committed community volunteers, who made over 93,000 visits to households in 1999. Communities are mobilised by building on existing practices, using natural entry points, and careful selection of local volunteers and supervisors. There is good community ownership, extremely low volunteer turnover, and reporting systems verify that aims and objectives are met. The programme maintains good ethics, addresses a range of children's rights, and is sustainable through a mixture of donor funds, FACT (sponsoring organisation) support and community support. Issues of concern include better recognition of psycho-social needs, prevention and protection from sexual abuse, reducing stigma and discrimination, increasing child-centred approaches and participation, and reducing gender imbalance among volunteers.     

The Accuracy of Age-specific Population Estimates for Small Areas in Britain

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective.