小波分析在管理数据处理中的应用

提出了一种基于小波变换的管理数据处理方法，把公司管理上的数据看成一个非平稳的时间序列，利用小渡函数将该时间序列分解到不同的频率通道上，然后将分解后的信号当作近似的平稳时间序列，用一些传统的统计方法进行预测，同时对中国足球彩票若干期的销售量数据进行了处理和预测，并将结果与实际销量以及用传统的AR模型的预测值进行了比较。     

汉、藏、蒙古族大学生创造性思维与推理能力比较研究

本文采用问卷调查,对汉、藏和蒙古族大学生的创造性思维发展水平和推理能力进行调研。结果表明:汉、藏、蒙古族大学生创造性思维的发展从总体趋势上呈现不均衡;不同民族大学生的创造性思维和推理能力发展呈现出各自的特点;认识水平与概括能力制约着不同民族大学生推理能力的发展。     

道之以德理之以序--试论宗法伦理对现代管理的启示

随着科技的发展和社会的进步 ,在探索管理理论的道路上 ,人的因素所占的比重逐渐加大 ,这与我国传统管理有不谋而合之处。宗法伦理这一中国传统文化以其重人伦、重道德为特点的思想一直影响着中国的管理理念。实际上 ,管理的核心内容是人的管理 ,而人具有一定的民族性、阶级性和地域性 ,受到本民族传统文化的深刻影响。这样 ,中国企业管理所应做的 ,就是立足于中国特有的历史人文环境 ,在西方有用的管理科学体系中注入宗法伦理的有效成分 ,从而整合出一套科学的有中国特色的管理模式。     

浅谈《战国策》的论理技巧与语言艺术

《战国策》为文铺排渲染,辩丽恣肆,陈说事理纵横捭阖,体情状物酣畅淋漓,堪称先秦史家之文中的出类拔萃之作。在论理技巧方面,《战国策》的文章大都善于分析形势,指陈利害,好设机巧,引人入彀,诱敌就范,进退有据,擒纵自如,具有极强的说服力和感染力。就语言而论,《战国策》之文大都放言无惮,绝少掩饰,文辞铺张扬厉,气势恢宏,且又精炼传神,形象生动,富于华彩,其语言艺术的精熟富丽,也大大超过了先秦其它几部历史散文。     

Complex belief-desire reasoning in children

Previous research concerned with children's belief-desire psychology has examined the capacity to predict or interpret action on the basis of the implicit proposition that ‘when an actor desires a particular end and believes that a particular action will achieve that end, he or she will undertake that action’. The limitations of this formulation for understanding acts of omission are outlined and an elaborated version of belief-desire psychology introduced. This version holds that ‘when an actor desires a particular end and believes that a particular action will achieve that end, and when it is believed that there are no co-occurring outcomes of that action whose avoidance is desired more highly than is the originally conceived end, then the actor will undertake the action which will satisfy the original desire’. An experiment is reported which examines 4-, 5, and 7-year-olds' ability to predict story characters' actions on the basis of either their true or false beliefs concerning undesirable outcomes associated with the pursuit of a desired end. Children of all age-groups provided evidence of understanding the elaborated version of belief-desire psychology. However, a significant improvement was noted between the ages of 4 and 7 years in the ability to understand circumstances involving false beliefs.     

On the effectiveness of cognitive feedback from an interface agent

The objective of this study was to determine the impact of task information (TI) provided by an interface agent during the idea evaluation and integration step of the problem formulation stage of the problem solving process. The effectiveness assessment was based on solving diagnostic decision problems in the domain of complex industrial machinery. Ten domain experts participated in this study. Decision support was provided by a case-based reasoning system. Findings suggest that TI provided by the interface agent had no effect on the decision maker's performance, nor on the associated cognitive effort. However, a verbal protocol analysis revealed that the ten subjects used the interface agent to verify their decision processes. The results and their implications are discussed with respect to current findings in the area of decision support systems.     

An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

Moral conformity in online interactions: rational justifications increase influence of peer opinions on moral judgments

Over the last decade, social media has increasingly been used as a platform for political and moral discourse. We investigate whether conformity, specifically concerning moral attitudes, occurs in these virtual environments apart from face-to-face interactions. Participants took an online survey and saw either statistical information about the frequency of certain responses, as one might see on social media (Study 1), or arguments that defend the responses in either a rational or emotional way (Study 2). Our results show that social information shaped moral judgments, even in an impersonal digital setting. Furthermore, rational arguments were more effective at eliciting conformity than emotional arguments. We discuss the implications of these results for theories of moral judgment that prioritize emotional responses.     

学前儿童基于重量和声音进行因果推理的发展研究

儿童的推理能力历来都是考察儿童认知发展的重点。本研究探讨了在多种属性刺激下3~5岁儿童基于重量和声音进行 因果推理的表现。结果发现：4岁和5岁儿童选择正确目标物的准确率显著高于3岁儿童；和同时使用声音与重量判断目标物相 比，儿童在单独使用重量或声音的情况下更容易区分目标物。总之，儿童因果推理能力发展的关键期在4岁并且当任务难度较高 的情况下其因果机制极易受到干扰。