对新课程实施中学生评价方法的哲学思考——标准化考试与档案袋评定的整合

评价既可能成为课程改革的动力 ,也可能成为其实施的障碍 ,它是课程改革成败的关键。为使基础教育课程改革达到预期目的 ,必须将评价改革作为课程改革的一个重要部分 ,探索出与新课程理念相一致的评价方法。目前国外较为流行的评价学生的方法是档案袋评定 ,这种评价理念与我国的新课程理念相一致 ,它强调学生参与 ,注重学生发展。然而档案袋评定能够作为标准化考试的替代评价法吗 ?笔者从不同哲学观进行分析 ,最后得到结论 :档案袋评定和标准化考试是看似对立、实质互补的两种评价方法 ,教师在实际评价中必须将两种方法结合运用     

涂附磨具单位面积CaCO3含量分析方法的改进

以铜试剂代替氰化物作掩蔽剂 ,用EDTA容量法测定涂附磨具单位面积CaCO3 含量 ,获得了满意的效果。     

试论《第一批异形词整理表》的学习与使用

教育部、国家语委发布《第一批异形词整理表》对完善我国语言文学的规范化有重要的意义。文章论述了异形词的内容及整理的原则 ,在学习和使用《第一批异形词整理表》时要注意的问题 ,包括如何找出使用推荐词形的规律和避免容易出现的错误等 ,并对此表存在问题试作分析     

金融期权定价模型与金融风险管理

金融期货是一种具有独特功能的非常重要的衍生金融工具 ,对规避金融风险有重要意义 ,其作为一种金融资产表现为一种特定的权利。B -S期权模型开创性地表达了这种期权定价理论 ,二项式模型则将各种金融期权定价模型推向简化和实用化。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

论提高理性思维

随着知识经济时代的到来,知识、信息、科技在生产和社会发展中的地位和作用越来越突出。新世纪需要开发人的智力资源,发展思维科学,用理性思维工具认识自然、制御环境、改造社会。现代的思维方式、方法作为人类的重要“资源”,对它的开发,即对人的智力的开发,已被提到极重要的地位。     

“国培计划”培训团队建设政策的反思与改进--基于政策工具与政策要素的二维分析

培训团队建设是实施“国培计划”的基础工程,是保证“国培计划”实施质量的关键所在。“国培计划”培训团队建设政策是引领“国培计划”培训团队建设实践的重要依据。以2010-2019年“国培计划”培训团队建设政策文本为研究对象,基于政策工具与政策要素的二维分析框架展开研究。研究发现,“国培计划”培训团队建设政策经历了“建章立制”(2010-2012年)、“稳步发展”(2013-2014年)、“精准推进”(2015-2019年)三个阶段,呈现出政策工具差异化、团队成员多元化、运行机制精准化等特征,同时也暴露出政策工具运用失衡、团队建设目标不清晰、相关政策难以有效落地等问题。因此,“国培计划”培训团队建设要注重优化政策工具结构、明确团队建设目标、坚持因地因时制宜,进一步提升政策的长效性、持续性和精准性。     

Performance measurement with classification information: an enhanced additive DEA model

This paper presents an improved measurement tool for evaluating performance of branches within a major Canadian bank. While there have been numerous previous studies of performance in the banking industry, particularly at the branch level, this study is different in a very significant way: specifically two kinds of data are used to develop the model. The first type of data is that related to standard transactions, available from any bank; such have formed the basis of numerous previous studies. The second type of data, obtained from the site studied, is classification information, based on branch consultant/expert judgment as to good and poor performance of branches. The purpose herein is to present a modified version of an existing benchmarking model, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and to show how this tool is applied in the banking industry. The mechanism used herein to incorporate expert knowledge within the DEA framework is to first apply a discriminant or classification tool, to quantify the functional relation that best captures the expert's mental model for performance. The outcome of this first phase is an orientation of variables to aid in the definition of inputs and outputs. The resulting orientation then defines the DEA model that makes up the second phase of the model.     

政策工具视角的中国装配式建筑政策文本量化研究

为了更科学地进行政策分析和研究,评测已有装配式建筑政策体系完善与否,从政策工具的视角,将基本政策工具、装配式建筑驱动主体和产业价值链组合成一个三维研究框架.利用该框架,运用内容分析法对中国现有13份中央政府级装配式建筑政策文本中采用的政策工具进行计量和分析.得出环境型和供给型政策工具过溢,针对企业和科研机构的政策工具缺失,装配式建筑产业价值链维度的政策工具滞后于其价值实现环节等结论,并为完善装配式建筑政策体系提出建议.     

Generalizing the standardized hazard ratio to multivariate proportional hazards regression,with an application to clinical~genomic studies

The standardized hazard ratio for univariate proportional hazards regression is generalized as a scalar to multivariate proportional hazards regression. Estimators of the standardized log hazard ratio are developed, with corrections for bias and for regression to the mean in high-dimensional analyses. Tests of point and interval null hypotheses and confidence intervals are constructed. Cohort sampling study designs, commonly used in prospective–retrospective clinical genomic studies, are accommodated.