Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

促性腺激素、V_(D_3)、V_E亚硒酸钠对母兔繁殖力的影响

选择成年、健康、未孕母兔 32只 ,随机分成 8组 ,分别给予促性腺激素 (Ⅰ组 )、VD3(Ⅱ组 )、VE 亚硒酸钠 (Ⅲ组 ) ,促性腺激素 +VD3(Ⅳ组 )、VD3+VE 亚硒酸钠 (Ⅴ组 )、促性腺激素 +VE 亚硒酸钠(Ⅵ组 )、促性腺激 +VD3+VE 亚硒酸钠 (Ⅶ组 ) ,空白对照 8种处理。试验结果表明 ,母兔经药物处理后 ,其繁殖性能 (发情状况、排卵数、正常受精卵数 )都比对照组显著地提高 ,但Ⅰ、Ⅳ、Ⅵ组有畸形卵子存在 ,以处理Ⅶ组效果最好 ,其排卵数达 4 7± 2 0 .3个 ,正常受精卵 35个 ,分别比对照组多 36 .5个、30个。     

Spatial variation in soil inorganic nitrogen across an arid urban ecosystem

We explored variations in inorganic soil nitrogen (N) concentrations across metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, and the surrounding desert using a probability-based synoptic survey. Data were examined using spatial statistics on the entire region, as well as for the desert and urban sites separately. Concentrations of both NO₃-N and NH₄-N were markedly higher and more heterogeneous amongst urban compared to desert soils. Regional variation in soil NO₃-N concentration was best explained by latitude, land use history, population density, along with percent cover of impervious surfaces and lawn, whereas soil NH₄-N concentrations were related to only latitude and population density. Within the urban area, patterns in both soil NO₃-N and NH₄-N were best predicted by elevation, population density and type of irrigation in the surrounding neighborhood. Spatial autocorrelation of soil NO₃-N concentrations explained 49% of variation among desert sites but was absent between urban sites. We suggest that inorganic soil N concentrations are controlled by a number of ‘local’ or ‘neighborhood’ human-related drivers in the city, rather than factors related to an urban-rural gradient.     

关于独立董事制度的一个经济逻辑分析

运用体制转轨和渐进改革的宏观视角、使用制度演进和制度创新的分析方法、结合公司治理结构的发展,对独立董事制度的构建背景、意义、发展途径进行一个比较详尽深入的经济逻辑分析,认为在制度潜力发掘—市场规范发展彼此良性互动的作用机制下,独立董事制度将逐渐成熟壮大,最终形成对原有公司治理机构体系的冲击,促使公司治理结构的不断优化和市场的不断成熟规范化变迁。     

数控机床功能的扩展

本文主要分析了HEIDENHAIN TNC 310数控铣床系统中圆弧铣削指令及螺纹铣削指令,对螺纹铣削功能进行延伸,扩展到圆弧三轴联动,并对螺纹铣削指令格式进行了修改,从而具有圆弧三轴联动铣削功能。     

RuCl2[P(C6H5)3]2(NH2CH2CH2NH2)催化苯乙酮加氢反应的研究

优化了以RuCl2[P(C6H5)3]2(NH2CH2CH2NH2)作催化剂催化苯乙酮加氢制备α-苯乙醇的反应条件,考察了反应温度、反应压力、碱的用量及不同的碱对反应的影响,得出了一个较好的反应条件.     

山西省农村人力资源开发现状及对策

农村人力资源开发是在对全体农村人口进行认真分析的基础上 ,确立以农村为主的不同农村人口类群中的质量差别 ,同时利用培训和教育等多种渠道 ,有效地进行人力资源资本投资 ,努力提高农村人口素质 ,以实际行动落实科教兴农的战略构想。本文从农村人力资源的规模及构成 ,文化素质及构成以及农村人口的从业类别三个方面对我省农村人力资源开发现状进行剖析 ;在认清现状的基础上 ,分别从投资规模 ,农村教育体制 ,组织领导 ,制度建设 ,思想观念等五个方面深入分析了造成目前现状的根源 ,并结合我省实际提出相应的对策建议 ,并创新了一套具有操作性的运作模式。     

Sifting the wheat from the chaff—the organization of telephone intake and the selection of social assistance inquirers in Sweden

In Sweden, the initial contact between help-seeking people and a social welfare office normally takes place over the telephone, with designated intake officers handling those aiming to apply for social assistance. Citizens seeking help are here sorted according to various eligibility criteria as well as according to different intake routines. The outcome of the sorting process is that some receive an appointment for a further assessment while others are sent away. This article describes and classifies the degree of selection at seven telephone intakes, discusses relations between the degrees of selection and reasons for selection and distinguishes several selection strategies.     

新硼试剂3—甲氧基—甲亚胺H与硼显色反应的研究

对新硼试剂3-甲氧基-甲亚胺H与硼显色反应体系研究结果表明,在pH=5的醋酸-醋酸铵缓冲体系中,硼与3-甲氧基-甲亚胺H在常温下形成2:3的黄绿色配合物,配合物稳定24h以上,λmax=410nm,ε550=6.82×104cm·mol-1·L-1,硼含量在0～2.5μg/25mL范围符合比耳定律.     

Physiologically Based Liver Modeling and Risk Assessment

Because of the inherent complexity of biological systems, there is often a choice between a number of apparently equally applicable physiologically based models to describe uptake and metabolism processes in toxicology or risk assessment. These models may fit the particular data sets of interest equally well, but may give quite different parameter estimates or predictions under different (extrapolated) conditions. Such competing models can be discriminated by a number of methods, including potential refutation by means of strategic experiments, and their ability to suitably incorporate all relevant physiological processes. For illustration, three currently used models for steady-state hepatic elimination--the venous equilibration model, the parallel tube model, and the distributed sinusoidal perfusion model--are reviewed and compared with particular reference to their application in the area of risk assessment. The ability of each of the models to describe and incorporate such physiological processes as protein binding, precursor-metabolite relations and hepatic zones of elimination, capillary recruitment, capillary heterogeneity, and intrahepatic shunting is discussed. Differences between the models in hepatic parameter estimation, extrapolation to different conditions, and interspecies scaling are discussed, and criteria for choosing one model over the others are presented. In this case, the distributed model provides the most general framework for describing physiological processes taking place in the liver, and has so far not been experimentally refuted, as have the other two models. These simpler models may, however, provide useful bounds on parameter estimates and on extrapolations and risk assessments.