Inferences on the Means of Two Log-Normal Distributions: A Computational Approach Test

In this article, we propose a novel approach for testing the equality of two log-normal populations using a computational approach test (CAT) that does not require explicit knowledge of the sampling distribution of the test statistic. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed approach can perform hypothesis testing with satisfying actual size even at small sample sizes. Overall, it is superior to other existing methods. Also, a CAT is proposed for testing about reliability of two log-normal populations when the means are the same. Simulations show that the actual size of this new approach is close to nominal level and better than the score test. At the end, the proposed methods are illustrated using two examples.     

Challenging sexual violence against girls: A social awareness approach

Most strategies to prevent child sexual abuse rely on therapeutic work with abusers or direct work with children training them to recognize and resist molestation. However, many authors, activists and professionals in this field assert the need to challenge broader social attitudes towards sexuality and violence. In 1992 an attempt at such an intervention was employed by Edinburgh District Council in their “Zero Tolerance Campaign”. This was a public awareness campaign which aimed to increase people's understanding of the extent and nature of violence against women and girls and to emphasize that such crimes should not be tolerated. Through challenging misconceptions, encouraging public discussion and focusing on strategies to prevent such crimes, the campaign organizers hoped to transform the social climate which is conducive to the abuse of women at any age. This article explores public response to the Zero Tolerance Campaign and, in particular, focuses on reactions to the two advertisements which addressed the sexual abuse of girls.     

Awareness of low self-control: Theory and evidence from a homeless shelter

Survey measures of self-control provide a potential low-cost alternative to incentivized elicitation. However, asking respondents to introspect on their self-control problems may instead measure their awareness of them, especially in populations with low self-control. We illustrate this with the Ameriks, Caplin, Leahy, and Tyler (2007) survey, which captures self-control problems through the deviation between self-reported ideal and predicted behavior (Expected Deviation, ED). Previous empirical evidence from high income or highly educated populations correlates larger ED with worse outcomes. We theoretically show that the reverse will be true in settings where awareness can play a large role: when self-control is low and costly commitment devices are available. We empirically show that, for residents of a homeless shelter, ED is positively correlated to savings in shelter lockboxes, a costly commitment device. This correlation is stronger for those likely to experience more self-control problems: individuals with past addiction problems.     

央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力研究

信息沟通有助于公众理解和预测货币政策的实际干预,进而提高货币政策有效性。研究中国人民银行的信息沟通对实际政策干预的预测能力需要解决沟通文本的测度问题,同时考虑实际政策干预多工具并用的复杂性。基于此,本文通过文本分析方法提取《货币政策执行报告》的信息,进而考察央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力。研究表明,整体而言,市场对中国人民银行“听其言”有助于“观其行”。具体来看,央行沟通对于直接可控的基准利率和存款准备金率具有持续的预测能力,但对于市场利率的预测能力较差,对于M2增长率的预测甚至存在方向不一致的情况。     

“中国式慈善”的现状与未来——基于社会资本视角的分析

＂郭美美＂事件引发了公众对慈善的质疑和热议,将中国慈善推向了风口浪尖。从社会资本的角度分析,中国慈善面临公众慈善意识薄弱,慈善组织数量少、筹款能力弱、公信力较低,慈善立法滞后三大问题。未来中国慈善发展应提高全民慈善意识,积极构建慈善网络和提高慈善组织公信力。     

Computational approach test for inference about several correlation coefficients: Equality and common

In this article, we consider inference about the correlation coefficients of several bivariate normal distributions. We first propose computational approach tests for testing the equality of the correlation coefficients. In fact, these approaches are parametric bootstrap tests, and simulation studies show that they perform very satisfactory, and the actual sizes of these tests are better than other existing approaches. We also present a computational approach test and a parametric bootstrap confidence interval for inference about the parameter of common correlation coefficient. At the end, all the approaches are illustrated using two real examples.     

印度战略文化及其变迁机制

自20世纪90年代战略文化成为备受关注的议题以来,从战略文化视角解释印度外交战略的研究不胜枚举.学术界对印度战略文化的研究普遍受到文化“稳定性”、“持久性”等基本特征的限制,主要从静止的视角围绕其起源、属性与形态等方面展开论述.本文试图从动态视角理解印度战略文化,构建战略文化生成与变迁理论框架.通过对战略文化的类型划分发现,印度在冷战时期形成了防御为主、进攻为辅的协调型战略文化,冷战后形成了强进攻性偏好的冲突型战略文化.作为印度战略文化变迁的首要条件,环境认知推动了印度国内政治程序的修正,从而影响了战略文化变迁.具体而言,国际体系环境的变化重塑了印度决策精英对国家安全的判断,并内化成新的观念体系.全新观念体系驱使决策精英行为偏好改变,且通过国内政治程序的修正上升为特定取向的国家战略偏好,最终生成全新的战略文化.     

新疆公共危机教育状况问卷调查报告

本研究在问卷调查的基础上，对新疆的公共危机教育状况进行初步描述分析，发现新疆的公共危机教育工作还存在一些严重影响公共危机教育的现实效果的问题。政府应从管理系统、法制建设、机构设置、教育内容和方法以及监督机制等方面，全方位着力改进，把公共危机教育落到实处。     

宋蔡忠惠公书艺书学举要及其现实意义

作为北宋四大书法家之一的蔡襄,以其真、行、草书皆优且概入妙品或精品而卓冠一时,并以其高尚的人品和书品而被誉为"当时第一"。蔡襄的书法风格以平和温厚为主,端庄严整而不刻板,温厚平和而不抵触。其论书标举"神气",反对奇诡失正,追求奇特。蔡襄通过自己的书法实践,不仅改变了宋初书坛的一片靡弱风气,而且使后人能在晋韵唐风中找到书法创作的依据,为书法史的发展注入了新的活力。     

人文关怀中的青年思想政治工作方法探讨

党的十七大适时地提出思想政治工作注重人文关怀和心理疏导，彰显了思想政治工作以人为本的宗旨和与时俱进的创新，显示了严肃的思想政治工作强调尊重人内心的感情、关心人内心的感受、拉近了执政党与人民的距离．体现了执政党更注重对人的关怀，社会对人的关爱。而青年作为实施思想政治工作的重点对象，在思想政治工作理念转换的背景下，强化科学的认识方法和科学的实施方法，是满足青年日益增长的物质和精神文化生活需求，是使青年思想政治工作收到实效的重要保证。