Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks with Imperfect Detection of the Attack Outcome

This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.     

中央红军会理攻坚战述论

会理攻坚战是中央红军长征在四川时的一场重要战斗。因红军伤亡过大且攻城失利,所以当时党内军内非议颇多。本文通过相关史料的梳理,分析红军攻城的有利与不利因素,从而说明这次战斗的失利对于中央红军迅速北上并突破国民党大渡河防线仍有积极的影响。     

Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks Against a Single Target

A target is protected by the defender and attacked by an attacker launching sequential attacks. For each attack, a contest intensity measures whether the agents’ efforts have low or high impact on the target vulnerability (low vs. high contest intensity). Both the defender and the attacker have limited resources. It is assumed that the attacker can observe the outcome of each attack and stop the sequence of attacks when the target is destroyed. Two attacker objectives are considered, that is, to maximize the target vulnerability or to minimize the expected attacker resource expenditure. The article addresses the following three questions: whether the attacker should allocate its entire resource into one large attack or distribute it among several attacks; whether geometrically increasing or decreasing resource distribution into a fixed number of sequential attacks is more beneficial than equal resource distribution; and how the optimal attack strategy depends on the contest intensity.     

伊朗核问题与中东地缘政治

近年美国等西方国家与伊朗在核问题上的分歧逐渐扩大,加深了原已存在的对抗程度.伊朗核研发最初在美国等西方国家支持下开始实施,目前认为伊核问题将威胁地区安全与世界和平的也是美国等西方国家.伊朗在恶劣的环境中却能不断提升自身实力和扩大在中东的影响,是中东举足轻重的地区大国.奥巴马执政后美国对伊朗进行军事打击的可能性降低,但伊朗仍有可能遭到来自以色列的军事打击.伊朗不可能放弃和平利用核能的合法权利,美国等西方国家与伊朗在核问题上的博弈将长期化.     

“9·11”事件以来大国关系调整的特点

“9·11”事件后，在恐怖主义和反恐战争的推动下，大国关系经历了深刻的调整。在调整的过程中也呈现出诸多特点，特别是美国成为这次大国关系调整的关键因素。对这些特点进行梳理、分析，有助于我们正确把握当前大国之间的关系。     

日本频繁对外出击原因探析

近段时期以来,日本并没有为60年前发动的那场战争感到忏悔,而是频繁出击邻国,与俄罗斯、韩国、中国交恶。究其原因主要是:日本民族主义再次崛起、社会思潮右倾化;日本要推行军事、政治大国战略;经济利益驱动下的海洋扩张意识的膨胀;国内政治竞争的需要。     

Efficiency of Even Separation of Parallel Elements with Variable Contest Intensity

The article considers strategic defense and attack of a system that can be separated into parallel elements. The defender distributes its resource between separation and protecting the elements from outside attacks. The vulnerability of each element is determined by an attacker‐defender contest success function, which depends on a contest intensity that may increase or decrease through the separation process. The article determines criteria of separation efficiency for systems without performance redundancy and 1‐out‐of‐N and Q‐out‐of‐N systems with performance redundancy. For the systems with performance redundancy the cases of expected damage proportional to the probability that the demand is not met, and expected damage proportional to the unsupplied demand, are considered.     

简述对鲁迅的“无聊的攻击”

本文在攻击鲁迅的文章中，选择一些“损着别人的牙眼”的典型言论，集中放在一起，加以简要分析，谈出自己的看法，看那些攻讦鲁迅的言论到底是一个什么样的面目，看读者对此有什么样的感想。     

Cost of Equity in Homeland Security Resource Allocation in the Face of a Strategic Attacker

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent in homeland security since September 11, 2001. Many mathematical models have been developed to study strategic interactions between governments (defenders) and terrorists (attackers). However, few studies have considered the tradeoff between equity and efficiency in homeland security resource allocation. In this article, we fill this gap by developing a novel model in which a government allocates defensive resources among multiple potential targets, while reserving a portion of defensive resources (represented by the equity coefficient) for equal distribution (according to geographical areas, population, density, etc.). Such a way to model equity is one of many alternatives, but was directly inspired by homeland security resource allocation practice. The government is faced with a strategic terrorist (adaptive adversary) whose attack probabilities are endogenously determined in the model. We study the effect of the equity coefficient on the optimal defensive resource allocations and the corresponding expected loss. We find that the cost of equity (in terms of increased expected loss) increases convexly in the equity coefficient. Furthermore, such cost is lower when: (a) government uses per‐valuation equity; (b) the cost‐effectiveness coefficient of defense increases; and (c) the total defense budget increases. Our model, results, and insights could be used to assist policy making.     

美以武力解决伊核问题的合法性与可行性

发展核武器虽符合伊朗致力于成为地区大国的战略逻辑,但受到国际国内压力,伊朗未必能够突破红线,军事打击伊朗难以具备足够的合情理性和合法性。伊朗核设施具有数量多、防攻击能力强等特点,其核能力趋于成熟,其民族国家建构亦比较成功,无论是定点清除,还是全面战争,均难以达到彻底解决伊核问题的目标。军事打击还可能导致石油市场崩溃和全球经济危机,并将遭到中俄等国家的强烈反对,美以不得不有所顾忌。尽管战争的可能性始终不能排除,但遏制伊朗以及提供延伸威慑已逐渐成为美国对伊政策的重点,美伊关系有可能陷入长期低烈度但可控的冲突。