An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two‐year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow‐up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t‐tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross‐lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross‐lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.     

“两伊问题”困扰中的美国海湾战略选择

伊战后,美国的海湾战略屡屡受挫,在中东面临危机多元化和扩散化的严重挑战。在伊拉克陷阱和伊朗核问题的双重困扰下,小布什政府及其后任可能的战略选择包括坚持原有“主导和预防行动”、采取“崩溃预防型”、恢复“稳定、威慑和遏制”、考虑“合作型秩序”等。但除非美国放弃独家主导海湾的霸权战略并调整其战略目标,否则难以在“支配”海湾地区和摆脱困境之间找到两全出路。     

A content analysis of BP's press releases dealing with crisis

This study aims to analyze what kinds of frames have been used in British Petroleum's (BP's) press releases, which dealt with the Gulf oil spill crisis that occurred in April 2010. A content analysis was conducted to explore the different frames used by BP in its press releases to deal with the crisis. The main and sub themes are also analyzed through a content analysis of press releases. This study attempts to examine BP's crisis communication strategy through press release usage by closely analyzing the frames and themes that were used. This study found that BP attempted to update the public on what the company was doing to resolve the oil spill crisis, and that they made every effort to manage the crisis by using the company's official update frame. In addition, by using the social responsibility frame, BP aimed to show the public that they had intentions of taking responsibility for the oil spill. Finally, BP used a minimal number of defensive frames as a way of showing the public that they did not want to flee from the responsibility of the oil spill crisis.     

气候变化政治对海湾国家的影响

海湾地区气候炎热,淡水资源缺乏。长期以来,海湾国家主要依靠能源出口获取大量资金,借此修建海水淡化工厂等各种设施以适应和改善气候环境的影响。近年来,国际社会在应对全球变暖问题的协调合作中,已形成一种处理全球气候变化的政治。气候变化政治要求各国减少能源消耗和降低二氧化碳排放量以缓解全球变暖趋势,从而对海湾国家以能源出口收益来维护生存环境和社会稳定的基本经济模式构成冲击。面对气候变化政治带来的冲击,海湾国家目前的权宜选择只能是继续扩大能源出口,并尽量拖延实施气候变化协议来进行应对。然而,这种做法虽可以暂时保持海湾国家改善环境的努力和维护其经济政治结构稳定,但却难以消除全球气候变化政治今后长期推动能源结构调整和节能减排所带来的压力。     

泛北部湾经济合作面临的挑战和发展前景

泛北部湾经济合作的提出引起了各方关注,但由于内外部各种因素的影响和制约,它至今仍停留在理论层面,未取得实质性发展。从泛北部湾经济合作的预期目标出发,结合现实情况来看,该经济合作机制面临的诸多挑战值得引起重视。然而,只要采取务实态度,其发展前景还是可观的。     

广西北部湾经济区文化发展研究

广西北部湾经济区文化发展是作为国家战略的<广西北部湾经济区发展规划>不可缺少的有机部分.根据文化发展理论与区域文化现状,探索适合北部湾城市群文化发展模式,目标是建设一个经济发达、社会文明、文化繁荣的文化城市群.其核心是,共建文化服务体系、共建文化市场体系、共建文化企业体系、共同配置文化资源、共同制定文化政策、共同实行文化体制改革,为国内中西部地区的文化发展起到示范与引领作用.     

广西北部湾港集装箱运输发展研究

广西北部湾港集装箱运输区域空间布局已得到进一步优化,表现为集装箱运输分工态势显现以及环北部湾港口集装箱运输格局发生的变化。这种优化得益于钦、防、北三港的整合,政府的政策推动以及路港之间的共同协作。而"一带一路"、中国东盟合作和大规模铁路建设也为北部湾港集装箱运输发展带来了新的机遇。尽管如此,北部湾港集装箱运输却仍然存在着进驻班轮公司少、港口装卸效率低和口岸服务效率不高等问题,并且面临着来自于自腹地内综合运输网络和环北部湾其他港口的挑战。因此,北部湾港集装箱运输应加速打造区域性集装箱枢纽港,加强营销并科学组织货源,大力开展"散改集"业务,加强与国际大型班轮公司的合作,加快中转业务的发展。     

从伊斯兰法到二元法——巴林法律体系的变迁轨迹

法律体系是衡量文明社会的重要标志。巴林作为中东民族国家建构体系中地缘、社会与文明实体的重要一环,尽管面积不大,人口较少,但其法律体系却在海湾地区具有历史悠久、体系完备以及内容丰富等特点。巴林法律体系历经四个时期：教法学家主导下的伊斯兰法时期、酋长管理下的部族法时期、英国控制下的混合法时期以及世俗和伊斯兰共生下的二元法时期。巴林法律体系的现代化呈现出多元化的理论形态与文化取向。     

从伊斯兰法到二元法——巴林法律体系的变迁轨迹

法律体系是衡量文明社会的重要标志.巴林作为中东民族国家建构体系中地缘、社会与文明实体的重要一环,尽管面积不大,人口较少,但其法律体系却在海湾地区具有历史悠久、体系完备以及内容丰富等特点.巴林法律体系历经四个时期:教法学家主导下的伊斯兰法时期、酋长管理下的部族法时期、英国控制下的混合法时期以及世俗和伊斯兰共生下的二元法时期.巴林法律体系的现代化呈现出多元化的理论形态与文化取向.     

北部湾经济建设与医学生创业能力的拓展

北部湾经济的发展给广西高等医学教育带来了难得的发展机遇,在分析医药学生创业现状及其原因的基础上,从医学生自身素质的提高、医学院校创业培养机制的建立和社会实践及创业环境的支撑等方面,探讨医学生创业能力的拓展和培养,既是提高医学生自身综合素质,适应北部湾经济区发展对高技能、高素质、实用型人才的需求,也是缓解医学生就业压力,拓宽就业渠道,实现以创业带动就业的新型就业方式的有效途径。