Global adjustment to US disengagement from the world trading system

US trade policy in the Trump administration is protectionist, raising tariffs outside of WTO rules, threatening trade wars, withdrawing from existing trade agreements, and negotiating new bilateral trade deals rather than free trade agreements. The reaction of the rest of the world has been to support the WTO rules-based trading system and to pursue new and expanded regional trade agreements that do not include the US. The result may be US disengagement from the world trading system, with countries diverting trade around the US. We use a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze changes in trade and production patterns for a variety of scenarios, including US trade wars. We find that adjustment to US disengagement is feasible—the changes in trade shares as countries divert trade are modest and achievable, with very little impact on the volume of global trade. If the US engages in trade wars with major partners, the best response for other trade partners is to sit out the trade war, accept higher US tariffs, and gain markets from global trade diversion around the US. Finally, because of indirect effects, widespread tariffs fail to benefit the protected sectors—a fallacy of composition in a protectionist trade policy.     

电价波动的产业结构效应——基于CGE模型的分析

为探索电价波动与产业结构变化的关系,本文主要应用CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型对中国的电价波动与产业结构变化进行了实证研究。结果表明,各行业产出对电价的交叉弹性系数虽然很小,但耗电越多的行业对电价变化的反映越敏感。因此,本文认为,出于抑制高耗能产业膨胀、促进能效提高的目的,可以适当提高电价,但不能对电价的产业结构效应期望过高。同时应采取适当的电价调整方式,以避免电价波动的其他负面影响,促进电力合理利用和经济社会的可持续发展。     

Impacts of the Triple Global Crisis on Growth and Poverty: The Case of Yemen

Yemen is an oil‐exporting and food‐importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre‐existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil‐driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro‐poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.     

Global Trade Models and Economic Policy Analyses: Relevance,Risks and Repercussions for Africa

Computable general equilibrium models are widely used for trade policy analyses and recommendations. There is, however, increasing discomfort with the use of these models, especially in Africa. This article demonstrates that the results of several such studies of the impact of trade reforms in Africa differ drastically in terms of both magnitude and direction, failing to take account of key features of African economies. It also outlines potential consequences of the misuse of CGE models for policy evaluation and suggests pitfalls to be avoided.     

科技研发投入政策模拟分析：基于中国科技CGE模型

从经济系统论角度,基于最新投入产出表和我国科技研发投入情况,编制中国科技社会核算矩阵,构建中国科技研发可计算一般均衡（CNT-CGE）模型,并模拟分析调整政府支出结构和科研经费制度改革两项科技研发投入政策。结果显示：调整政府支出结构政策可以使得实际GDP 增长率随着政府消费降幅的增加而增加,GDP 平减指数则随着政府消费降幅的增加而减少,其绝对降幅略小于实际 GDP 增幅;科研经费制度改革政策可以有效地提高我国 GDP 增长率,显著地降低物价水平,提升社会整体福利水平。     

极端气候冲击下中国粮食安全的技术进步路径选择——基于动态CGE模型的模拟

基于中国动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,系统探讨了极端气候冲击下中国粮食安全的最优技术进步路径选择。从产量、价格、进口依赖度以及人均占有量的视角综合考察了粮食安全指标的动态变化,结论表明：土地、劳动力和资本增进型技术进步会缓解极端气候对粮食安全的不利冲击,并且缓解的效果依次递减;土地和劳动增进型技术进步组合、土地和资本增进型技术进步组合、劳动力和资本增进型技术进步组合缓解极端气候对粮食安全冲击的效果也依次递减。提出：在当前小规模经营农户为主的条件下,为了缓解极端气候事件对粮食安全的不利冲击,粮食生产应重点鼓励土地增进型技术进步,其次是劳动力增进型技术进步。     

能源价格上涨情景下能源消费与经济波动的综合特征

 能源定价体制的改革是我国未来经济体制改革中一项非常重要、又极其紧迫的一项重大理论和实践课题,这一改革不但直接关系到我国经济增长和能源效率的提高效果,更是关乎我国经济发展转型的成败和我国未来能源安全的保障状况。通过建立CGE模型,本文研究了能源价格上涨情景下我国能源消费与经济增长的综合波动特征。主要发现如下：能源价格上涨虽然使得除进口外GDP、出口、就业等变量下降,物价水平上涨,但却能够在一定程度上降低能源强度并优化产业结构。就影响的大小而言,电力价格上涨的影响最大,石油和天然气次之,煤炭价格上涨的影响最小。从行业产出的变动来看,能源行业自身受能源价格上涨的负面冲击最大,其次是重工业,而农业、轻工业等所受的负面冲击最小。基于上述结论,我们认为,未来继续努力推进能源定价的市场化改革,是推进我国的节能降耗工作、提高经济增长效率的有效途径。     

基于金融CGE模型的中国绿色信贷政策短中长期影响分析

十二五将节能环保作为一大关键主题, 中国将更多地使用市场经济手段治理环境, 与命令-控制手段互为补充。绿色信贷政策是其中重要的金融政策。本文从绿色信贷政策中对"双高"行业实施惩罚性高利率这一市场化的利率政策入手, 利用中国2007年SAM表, 部分行业主要上市企业年报, 2006年及2007年资金流量表及金融年鉴数据, 建立一个加入金融系统的CGE(可计算一般均衡)模型, 刻画绿色信贷政策的传导路径, 定量测算政策在不同时期的系统性影响。结果发现绿色信贷政策能够较为有效地抑制目标行业的投资行为, 并在短期、中期内能减少造纸业、化工业产出。在长期, 目标行业投资、产出回升, 抵消绿色信贷对抑制目标行业产出的效果。     

Trade policy in Palestine: A reassessment

The paper develops a CGE macro-model for Palestine, departing in three fundamental ways from the set-up applied in earlier studies. The present framework: (i) reformulates the modelling of fiscal policy in light of context-specific elements, including the absence of a government bond market and the incomplete transfer of revenues collected by Israel for the PNA; (ii) endogenizes private capital flows; (iii) postulates a demand-driven causality structure. Various policy scenarios are then assessed, with one crucial novelty: the overall effect of further trade liberalization turns out to be slightly contractionary, due to its fiscal implications.