Towards Uniformly Efficient Trend Estimation Under Weak/Strong Correlation and Non‐stationary Volatility

In this paper, we consider the deterministic trend model where the error process is allowed to be weakly or strongly correlated and subject to non‐stationary volatility. Extant estimators of the trend coefficient are analysed. We find that under heteroskedasticity, the Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator (with some initial condition) could be less efficient than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) when the process is highly persistent, whereas it is asymptotically equivalent to OLS when the process is less persistent. An efficient non‐parametrically weighted Cochrane–Orcutt‐type estimator is then proposed. The efficiency is uniform over weak or strong serial correlation and non‐stationary volatility of unknown form. The feasible estimator relies on non‐parametric estimation of the volatility function, and the asymptotic theory is provided. We use the data‐dependent smoothing bandwidth that can automatically adjust for the strength of non‐stationarity in volatilities. The implementation does not require pretesting persistence of the process or specification of non‐stationary volatility. Finite‐sample evaluation via simulations and an empirical application demonstrates the good performance of proposed estimators.     

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions

Aggressive behavior in pet dogs is a serious problem for dog owners across the globe, with bite injuries representing a serious risk to both people and other dogs. The effective management of aggressive behavior in dogs represents a challenging and controversial issue. Although positive reinforcement training methods are now considered to be the most effective and humane technique to manage the risk of aggression, punishment‐based methods continue to be used. Unfortunately, there has been little scientific study into the various factors influencing whether dog owners choose to use positive reinforcement techniques to manage aggression in their dogs. As such, current understanding of how best to encourage and support dog owners to use these methods remains extremely limited. This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential barriers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceived ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predicting future intentions and current reported use. Future interventions should focus on enhancing owner confidence in the effective use of positive reinforcement techniques across multiple scenarios, as well as helping owners manage their own emotional responses when they encounter challenging situations and setbacks.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

The Box–Cox Transformation and Non‐Iterative Estimation Methods for Ordinal Log‐Linear Models

Recently Beh and Farver investigated and evaluated three non‐iterative procedures for estimating the linear‐by‐linear parameter of an ordinal log‐linear model. The study demonstrated that these non‐iterative techniques provide estimates that are, for most types of contingency tables, statistically indistinguishable from estimates from Newton's unidimensional algorithm. Here we show how two of these techniques are related using the Box–Cox transformation. We also show that by using this transformation, accurate non‐iterative estimates are achievable even when a contingency table contains sampling zeros.     

How do my parents react when I feel happy? Longitudinal associations with adolescent depressive symptoms,anhedonia, and positive affect regulation

Parental emotion socialization plays a role in the development of adolescents’ emotion regulation and is associated with adolescents’ depressive symptoms. Most research has focused on parental socialization of negative affect. The scarce research on parental socialization of positive affect (PA) shows that parental downgrading responses to adolescents’ PA are associated with concurrent adolescent depression. The aims of the present study were to examine longitudinal associations of both maternal and paternal responses to adolescents’ PA with how adolescents regulate their PA (i.e., dampening and enhancing) and with adolescents’ general depressive symptoms and anhedonia. We also considered associations in the opposite direction from adolescent regulatory responses and symptoms to parental responses. In a two‐wave study (1‐year interval), 635 adolescents from Grade seven completed questionnaires. Cross‐sectionally, maternal and paternal responses to adolescents’ PA were associated with concurrent adolescents’ PA regulation as well as adolescents’ depressive and anhedonic symptoms. Longitudinally, low maternal and paternal enhancing responses to adolescents’ PA predicted relative increases in anhedonic symptoms and relative decreases in adolescent enhancing over time. Low maternal enhancing was also predictive of relative increases in depressive symptoms. The present study points to bidirectionality of relations as adolescents’ level of depressive symptoms predicted maternal and paternal responses.     

Participant roles in preschool bullying: The impact of emotion regulation,social preference,and quality of the teacher–child relationship

The present work investigated whether emotion regulation and social preference were associated with participant roles in bullying as a function of the quality of the relationship with teachers. Participants were 332 children (172 boys), in the age of 42–76 months (M = 58.74; SD = 7.84). Peer nominations were employed to assess social preference and participant roles (bullying, victimization, defending the victim, and outsider behavior). Teachers completed the Emotion Regulation Checklist, which yields the dimensions of emotion regulation and lability/negativity, and the Student – Teacher Relationships Scale, to evaluate conflict and closeness with the teacher. Multilevel models highlighted that emotional lability was positively associated with bullying and outsider behavior, emotion regulation was positively related to bullying and defending behavior, and social preference was negatively associated with bullying and victimization and positively with defending behavior. Interactions indicated that lability and low social preference were associated with bullying, and emotion regulation with outsider behavior, in children with a conflictual relationship with the teacher whereas social preference was related to defending behavior in children with a close relationship with the teacher. Results are discussed highlighting the importance of the quality of teacher–child relationship and the relevance of intervention programs aimed at promoting social wellbeing in preschool.     

Social development quartet: When is parental supportiveness a good thing? The dynamic value of parents' supportive emotion socialization across childhood

This introduction to the Social Development Quartet summarizes four articles that examine age‐related and contextual shifts in the utility of parents' emotion socialization responses for children's social‐emotional development. The first two articles present evidence for age‐related changes in the benefits of parents' supportive responses and consequences of parents' nonsupportive responses to children's negative emotions between early and middle childhood. The next two articles consider contextual variations in this developmental shift by examining teacher reports of children's competence and family patterns of response among mothers and fathers. Together, these studies question the unilateral assumption that parental support of children's negative emotions is always a good thing, and provide a more nuanced understanding of when and in what contexts parents' responses are adaptive for children.     

What makes hybrid insourcing successful: A new public–private partnership model for social welfare services

Outsourcing has been a key policy tool for delivering a range of social services, and regarded as more effective than insourcing or direct government provision. At the same time, it has also caused many delivery issues such as principal‐agent problems, a lack of policy coordination, and poor‐quality welfare services. While the pendulum continues to swing between insourcing and outsourcing, we aim to propose a new public–private partnership model called the “hybrid insourcing model” and examine which factors influence the performance of the model. In South Korea, around 2010, the local government in Namyangju City was the first to implement the “Hope Care Center model,” a kind of hybrid insourcing model, which has been praised for its innovation and widely emulated by central and local governments. Our analysis utilizes data collected between December 2017 and January 2018 from public sector employees and civilian staff in Namyangju and a comparable city, A. From this, we draw a number of implications, both for theory and for policy. We argue that, for public–private partnerships, active cooperation and equality are the biggest factors in contributing to positive performance. These work alongside leaders with a clear vision and with employees' positive attitude.     

The limits of the decentred state: the case of policing insurance claims fraud

Existing research clearly shows that the public–private divide is continuously being challenged, recast and transformed. However, this article argues that a sharp distinction between public and private continues to operate as an important norm for professionals involved in the investigation of insurance claims fraud in Sweden. It shows how power within private insurance companies and the police authority is organized around the public–private divide, which is in turn mobilized to justify repression and to give investigations legitimacy. The article indicates that the formal public–private distinction is far more thoroughly maintained than is suggested by the existing literature. Rather than challenging the centrality of state power, private insurers and the police construct, maintain and have a stake in the reproduction of a state‐centric monopoly of crime control.