农业巨灾保险风险分散路径障碍及对策

农业特别易于发生巨灾风险和巨灾损失,仅2008年中国就发生了四次特大农业灾害事故,给国民经济带来巨大损失,但中国现行的农业保险体系存在缺乏法律依据和保险精算技术支持的问题,因而各种巨灾风险分散路径障碍重重;对此,文章提出尽快出台有关农业保险体系的法律法规、加大对有关农业巨灾风险管理研究的支持并鼓励开展国际合作、将农业再保险界定为政策性业务、多方筹集巨灾风险基金、将参保与各项农业扶持措施相联结的政策建议。     

地震死亡人数预测与巨灾保险基金测算

巨灾保险制度在很大程度上依赖于巨灾损失的建模分析。由于巨灾损失通常存在极端值,一般的统计分布很难对其进行有效拟合。本文以我国大陆地区1950-2015年期间的地震灾害为研究样本,基于二维泊松过程建立了地震灾害死亡人数的预测模型。根据地震死亡人数的分布特征,将地震灾害分为非巨灾事件和巨灾事件,分别用右截断的负二项分布和右截断的广义帕累托分布拟合死亡人数;用齐次泊松过程描述地震灾害在给定期间的发生次数;用Panjer迭代法和快速傅里叶变换计算地震死亡人数在特定时期的分布以及风险度量值;用蒙特卡罗模拟法测算我国地震死亡保险基金的规模和纯保费水平。与传统的巨灾模型相比,本文提出的方法同时考虑了地震灾害发生的时间和地震死亡人数两个维度,并用贝叶斯方法估计模型参数,对地震死亡人数的拟合更加合理,为完善我国地震死亡保险提供了一种新的思路。     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100‐year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10‐year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.     

Community Resilience and Decision Theory Challenges for Catastrophic Events

Extreme and catastrophic events pose challenges for normative models of risk management decision making. They invite development of new methods and principles to complement existing normative decision and risk analysis. Because such events are rare, it is difficult to learn about them from experience. They can prompt both too little concern before the fact, and too much after. Emotionally charged and vivid outcomes promote probability neglect and distort risk perceptions. Aversion to acting on uncertain probabilities saps precautionary action; moral hazard distorts incentives to take care; imperfect learning and social adaptation (e.g., herd‐following, group‐think) complicate forecasting and coordination of individual behaviors and undermine prediction, preparation, and insurance of catastrophic events. Such difficulties raise substantial challenges for normative decision theories prescribing how catastrophe risks should be managed. This article summarizes challenges for catastrophic hazards with uncertain or unpredictable frequencies and severities, hard‐to‐envision and incompletely described decision alternatives and consequences, and individual responses that influence each other. Conceptual models and examples clarify where and why new methods are needed to complement traditional normative decision theories for individuals and groups. For example, prospective and retrospective preferences for risk management alternatives may conflict; procedures for combining individual beliefs or preferences can produce collective decisions that no one favors; and individual choices or behaviors in preparing for possible disasters may have no equilibrium. Recent ideas for building “disaster‐resilient” communities can complement traditional normative decision theories, helping to meet the practical need for better ways to manage risks of extreme and catastrophic events.     

基于突变的项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤研究

对于以项目方式进行管理或生产的企业来说,共享资源在多项目、特别是项目组合(project portfolio,PP)中的合理配置是企业运营所需要解决的重要问题,对企业实现可持续发展起着关键的支撑作用。本文将突变理论引入项目组合管理问题中,在类比交通系统中车辆对交通资源竞争的基础上,提出了项目组合系统共享资源竞争拥挤概念,并对其基础变量进行了详细分析;其次,本文分析了项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤势函数和竞争稳定性,构建了以系统效率最大化为决策目标的项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤模型;最后,通过HD集团的案例分析对项目组合共享资源竞争拥挤模型的可实践性进行了验证,并以此为基础,针对项目组合管理提出了共享资源的改进管理方案。     

论灾难新闻摄影的正面价值与负面效应

灾难新闻摄影不仅在灾难新闻报道方面具有独特的优势与价值,而且透过对灾难的艺术展现,折射出强烈的人文关怀和现实批判。但对广大受众来讲,过分的灾难展示也会破坏受众的正面认知结构,造成人们在灾难面前良知的泯灭与麻木,因此要把握好灾难新闻图片展示的度,以深刻的人文关怀精神为指针,传递与人类休戚相关的重大灾难信息,以达到激发人类良知的社会伦理教育功能。     

In Search of Perfect Foresight? Policy Bias,Management of Unknowns,and What Has Changed in Science Policy Since the Tohoku Disaster

The failure to foresee the catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear accident of 2011 has been perceived by many in Japan as a fundamental shortcoming of modern disaster risk science. Hampered by a variety of cognitive and institutional biases, the conventional disaster risk management planning based on the “known risks” led to the cascading failures of the interlinked disaster risk management (DRM) apparatus. This realization led to a major rethinking in the use of science for policy and the incorporations of lessons learned in the country's new DRM policy. This study reviews publicly available documents on expert committee discussions and scientific articles to identify what continuities and changes have been made in the use of scientific knowledge in Japanese risk management. In general, the prior influence of cognitive bias (e.g., overreliance on documented hazard risks) has been largely recognized, and increased attention is now being paid to the incorporation of less documented but known risks. This has led to upward adjustments in estimated damages from future risks and recognition of the need for further strengthening of DRM policy. At the same time, there remains significant continuity in the way scientific knowledge is perceived to provide sufficient and justifiable grounds for the development and implementation of DRM policy. The emphasis on “evidence‐based policy” in earthquake and tsunami risk reduction measures continues, despite the critical reflections of a group of scientists who advocate for a major rethinking of the country's science‐policy institution respecting the limitations of the current state science.     

巨灾风险：可保性与可负担性

 巨灾风险的可保性与可负担性,是保险在巨灾风险管理框架与机制中发挥作用并不可回避的重要前提。本文将巨灾风险的可保性与可负担性分别置入三种不同模式的框架下,从有别于传统只考虑可保性的单一视角,在分析讨论可保性与可负担性的理论基础以及相互关系等问题后,尝试性的探讨了三种巨灾风险管理模式框架下的可保性与可负担性。我们认为纯市场框架内,巨灾风险不可保且难于负担;政府与资本市场参与下的巨灾风险管理框架内,巨灾风险才成为可保风险并有限定的可负担。为此,融入保险机制的我国巨灾风险管理制度的创新,重构与建立政府、金融保险市场、商业保险业、监管机构以及社会公众的新型合作机制,将成为保险在巨灾风险管理制度中发挥重要作用的关键。     

Alerte et catastrophe : le cas de la tempête de 1999, un risque scélérat

There is a recurrent paradox: why do catastrophes always seem to be “anticipated” ex post but never ex ante? This study of the warnings issued prior to the last major natural catastrophe experienced by France—the storm of 27 December 1999—focuses on the organizational factors accounting for the surprise occasioned by this event. Even though the French weather bureau had forecasted the storm, why did civil defense workers declare that the scale of the event came as a surprise to them? A multilevel qualitative analysis of the operation of the interorganizational weather-warning system shows that a combination of structural, contextual and individual factors turned the warnings into routine messages. The 1999 storm serves to describe an ideal type of a particular risk, namely the treacherous risk, which is clearly announced but disregarded because it seems so familiar.