Approximation of the Bivariate Renewal Function

Recently, Kambo and his co-researchers (2012) proposed a method of approximation for evaluating the one-dimensional renewal function based on the first three moments. Their method is simple and elegant, which gives exact values for well-known distributions. In this article, we propose an analogous method for the evaluation of bivariate renewal function based on the first two moments of the variables and their joint moment. The proposed method yields exact results for certain widely used bivariate distributions like bivariate exponential distribution, bivariate Weibull distributions, and bivariate Pareto distributions. An illustrative example in the form of a two-dimensional warranty problem is considered and comparisons of our method are made with the results of other models.     

How do countries choose their monetary policy frameworks?

This paper investigates the determinants of countries’ choices of monetary policy framework. A brief narrative focused on groupings of countries motivates an econometric analysis which draws on previous work on the determinants of exchange rate regimes, bringing in standard factors as well as the trade networks of potential anchor currency blocs and the financial market depth that are emphasised in the narrative. The model turns out to be able to predict three quarters of countries’ choices, and there is no obvious systematic pattern in the errors. The results have important implications for how countries should choose their monetary policy frameworks.     

明清时期长江中下游地区的土地利用

我国明清时期长江中下游地区的土地利用状况是自汉、唐以来人地关系日益尖锐的结果。文章在分析了当时土地利用方式的基础上 ,进一步对形成土地集约化经营趋势日趋明显的原因进行了论述 ,并从明清时期的土地利用得出启示 :我国土地资源的开发利用必须走可持续发展之路     

上海辐射与苏南地区思想观念嬗变的动因分析

从上海辐射的角度考察苏南地区思想观念嬗变的主要原因 ,有经济基础、文化教育和科学知识三个方面。上海买办地位的转变 ,说明经济基础在观念变迁中的重要作用 ,由此导致上海和苏南地区人们的思想观念向重商重利转变。随着近代教育在上海成为时尚 ,苏南地区的近代教育也日渐兴起 ,新式学堂具有重视传播科学知识和培养创新精神、注重塑造民族精神、宣传男女平等等特征 ,有助于苏南地区思想观念的变革。上海开埠后 ,介绍西方科学知识的书籍首先从这一窗口流向内地 ,苏南地区作为桥头堡而得其先 ,在译介中发挥了重要作用。     

长江三峡人文地理研究的回顾与展望

以文献法为主要研究方法,利用网络资源检索出的相关专业论文,选取了其中的150多篇为研究基础,并参考了部分专著,在回顾以长江三峡为特定区域的人文地理研究的历史进程的基础上进行了综合评述。重点分析、总结了1990年代以来的主要研究特点,并在此基础上就长江三峡人文地理研究的未来趋向进行了展望。     

论华中抗日根据地基层政权的民主选举—以乡选为中心的考察

为从根本上改造基层政权,中国共产党领导下的华中抗日根据地广泛开展了一场轰轰烈烈的民主选举运动。根据地颁布了一系列法令、条例,使选举规范化;人民群众在实践中也充分发挥智慧创造了适合自己的选举方式。选举体现了广泛性、平等性、真实性的特点。这一运动使基层政权性质彻底改变,为争取抗战乃至整个新民主主义革命的胜利提供了重要保证。     

Assessing accuracy of a continuous screening test in the presence of verification bias

Summary.  In studies to assess the accuracy of a screening test, often definitive disease assessment is too invasive or expensive to be ascertained on all the study subjects. Although it may be more ethical or cost effective to ascertain the true disease status with a higher rate in study subjects where the screening test or additional information is suggestive of disease, estimates of accuracy can be biased in a study with such a design. This bias is known as verification bias. Verification bias correction methods that accommodate screening tests with binary or ordinal responses have been developed; however, no verification bias correction methods exist for tests with continuous results. We propose and compare imputation and reweighting bias-corrected estimators of true and false positive rates, receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for continuous tests. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to compare the proposed estimators with respect to bias, relative efficiency and robustness to model misspecification. The bias correction estimators proposed are applied to data from a study of screening tests for neonatal hearing loss.     

美国对外贸易政策的历史考察

自北美独立战争结束以来,美国的对外贸易政策大致经历了五个阶段.其中保护主义始终贯穿于美国的对外贸易政策之中.虽然自由贸易有时偶占上风,但这种所谓的自由贸易是有条件的、相对的,是美国打着"互惠、公平、非歧视"的幌子,欲抢占别国市场.为了实现大资产阶级利益的最大化,美国总是将贸易保护政策奉为圭臬,这一政策才是无条件的、绝对的.     

论18世纪后期英国对中国西藏的渗透政策及其破产

在18世纪后期,英国受当时社会历史条件的限制,对我国西藏实行以建立直接交往关系为主的渗透政策。由于喜玛拉雅地区各国在历史上同我国西藏形成的密切关系及其在地缘政治上的屏障作用,英国在这一地区的扩张活动同它建立印藏直接交往的尝试一样,都是其对藏渗透政策的组成部分。英国在廓尔喀侵藏战争中的卑劣表演最终导致了其对藏渗透政策的彻底破产。     

自由心证的解构与建构

自由心证制度是对法定证据制度的否定,相对于法定证据制度而言,它能够充分调动裁判者司法认识的主动性和增加司法认识过程的能动性,有利于案件事实的发现与司法正义的实现,本文从我国借鉴自由心证制度的概念及其原理开始论述,尝试对自由心证进行全新的建构。