Media Publicity and the Voluntary Sector: The Case of Nonprofit Organizations in New York City

Media publicity is an important resource for contemporary voluntary associations, but very little is actually known about the resources and organizational characteristics that are most important for getting media attention. To address this question, we collected and analyzed data on the organizational attributes and news publicity of 739 nonprofit organizations in New York City. We find that an organization's income, paid staff, membership size, and library resources are significantly related to getting media publicity, whereas the number of chapter affiliations is inversely related to publicity. Association type is also a significant factor that influences an organization's ability to get publicity. We discuss the implications that these findings have for current debates about advocacy and civic engagement in the nonprofit sector.     

传统科技视野下的恐怖主义及其应对

科学技术的发展及其被恶意运用,使当代的恐怖主义活动变得更加复杂多样和令人恐慌.掌握和使用高科技的超级恐怖主义组织的确存在,但对于一般恐怖分子而言,高科技的运用还不大现实.多数情况下,都是传统通用科技引导着普通的恐怖主义活动.恐怖活动与传统通用科技相伴发展的历史事实,表明传统通用科技对恐怖主义与反击恐怖主义双重力量扩张所起的作用,具体体现在武器技术、交通运输和通信技术的应用等方面.科学技术既是恐怖主义盛行的因素,也是恐怖主义的克星,运用高科技手段反击恐怖主义也是我们的必然选择.     

泉州民营经济发展的现状及对策——兼与温州比较

改革开放后，泉州大力发展以民营经济为主的非公有制经济，民营经济已成为当地经济发展的强大动力和最具活力的增长点。但随着改革的不断深入，企业增长机制的功能性障碍以及企业规模总体较小等问题不断突显出来，泉州民营经济面临着如何向更高层次发展的局面。运用SWOT分析方法，对泉州和温州民营经济的发展状况进行比较分析，据此提出相应的对策建议。     

A Risk-Based Method for Modeling Traffic Fatalities

We describe a risk-based analytical framework for estimating traffic fatalities that combines the probability of a crash and the probability of fatality in the event of a crash. As an illustrative application, we use the methodology to explore the role of vehicle mix and vehicle prevalence on long-run fatality trends for a range of transportation growth scenarios that may be relevant to developing societies. We assume crash rates between different road users are proportional to their roadway use and estimate case fatality ratios (CFRs) for the different vehicle-vehicle and vehicle-pedestrian combinations. We find that in the absence of road safety interventions, the historical trend of initially rising and then falling fatalities observed in industrialized nations occurred only if motorization was through car ownership. In all other cases studied (scenarios dominated by scooter use, bus use, and mixed use), traffic fatalities rose monotonically. Fatalities per vehicle had a falling trend similar to that observed in historical data from industrialized nations. Regional adaptations of the model validated with local data can be used to evaluate the impacts of transportation planning and safety interventions, such as helmets, seat belts, and enforcement of traffic laws, on traffic fatalities.     

科技特派员制度生命力的探析

地处闽北的南平市在发展当地经济、促进农业重大转型的特定时期,启动科技特派员制度,有其深刻的时代背景和现实意义。本文从科技特派员制度创举与活力切入,分析这一制度创举深层次的原因,并进一步探讨这一制度生命力如何在新时期持续和创新。     

我国交通经济转型期的交通政策

我国交通经济已经正处在从初步运输化向完善运输化转变的重要时期，交通经　济发展表现出新的矛盾。本文认为工国交通政策的目标和内容缺乏明确性和完整性。现阶　段我国交通　政策主要应围绕着交通市场政策、交通投资政策、交通调整政策和交通补助政策等内容展开　，建立我国新型的交通政策体系。     

我国城市交通可持续发展初探

本文首先给出了城市交通发展与城市交通环境影响互动机理的计算公式 ,在此基础上提出了城市交通环境损害治理的完整逻辑体系 ,然后结合我国的实际情况 ,从环境经济与技术经济的角度出发 ,就我国城市交通的可持续发展发表了相关看法。     

ELICITING A DIRECTED ACYCLIC GRAPH FOR A MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES OF VEHICLE COUNTS IN A TRAFFIC NETWORK

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM.     

烟台市水资源承载力变化的驱动力研究

阐述了水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因素,根据烟台市各县区的统计资料,分析了烟台市自上个世纪80年代以来水资源承载力变化的总体趋势和驱动因子。结果表明:人口、社会固定资产投资和GDP是影响烟台市水资源承载力变化的主要驱动因素。通过多元线性回归模型,预测出了2005和2015年的水资源量,并进一步预测了该市的需水量和缺水量。     

常德市区域可持续发展评价指标体系构建

区域可持续发展能力的评价 ,是实现区域可持续发展的关键与前提。利用层次分析法和主成分分析法 ,构建常德市区域可持续发展能力的评价指标体系 ,从总量规模和结构协调两个方面对常德市区域可持续发展能力进行评价 ,可为常德市区域可持续发展的实施提供科学的依据